Beasts of the East – Breaking Down the NCAA Tournament’s East Region

The most highly anticipated and action-packed weekend in sports is upon us. The First Round of the annual NCAA Tournament tips off at 12:15 ET Thursday afternoon from Des Moines, IA. By the time the sun sets on Sunday evening, 48 tournament basketball games will have been played with only the nation’s top-16 teams surviving.

This 68-team spectacle culminates with the NCAA Championship game on April 8th in Minneapolis. It’s madness … March Madness.

As is always the case, the bracket is divided into 4 regions: East, South, Midwest, and West. They might as well just call these Region 1, Region 2, etc. because parity across regions is the goal of the selection committee, not geography. To ensure balanced strengths of schedule, the committee often puts teams in regions that do not make sense from a geographical standpoint.

For example, this year’s West region includes Vermont, Syracuse, Florida State, Buffalo, and Florida. Washington, Utah State, and New Mexico State all find themselves in the Midwest region. Oregon, UC Irvine, and St Mary’s from California are all in the South.

Today, I will be breaking down the East region. I follow the Big Ten rather closely and this region contains 3 B10 teams. The East is also home to the number 1 overall seed Duke as well as 3 of the nation’s top upset picks. It’s truly anyone’s for the taking.

Only one team can come out on top, however, and it is my job to help figure out who that will be. For starters, here is a quick list of the 18 teams (really 16) in the East this year, arranged by their First Round matchup in the order they appear on the bracket.

#1 Duke vs #16 North Dakota State/North Carolina Central (First Four)

#8 VCU #9 UCF

#5 Mississippi State vs #12 Liberty

#4 Virginia Tech vs #13 Saint Louis

#6 Maryland vs #11 Belmont/Temple (First Four)

#3 LSU vs #14 Yale

#7 Louisville vs #10 Minnesota

#2 Michigan State vs #15 Bradley

The East region has spots for two First Four teams. Added in 2011, the First Four are a series of 4 play-in games that determine the final 4 spots in the field of 64. Belmont and Temple play on Tuesday at 9:10 ET while ND State and NC Central battle it out on Wednesday evening at 6:40 ET. The First Four games are always in Dayton, OH.

Paths to the Final Four

Experts always talk about a team’s path through a tournament. Your path is who you will have to beat if you want to advance through the bracket.

Duke Blue Devils – Path to the Final Four

As a reward for earning the 1-seed, Duke is given the easiest path … at least in theory. Current odds for Duke to reach the Final Four are -165 – the best odds in the tournament.

Neither VCU nor UCF are talented or deep enough to give Duke a good run for their money in the Second Round. ACC fans would love a Duke-Virginia Tech Sweet 16 matchup. Should this matchup occur, I give Duke a 99.99% chance to win. Familiar foes do not trip up elite squads. It is the nonconventional Cinderellas who play reckless basketball with nothing to lose that Duke needs to watch out for.

I will pick Duke to reach the Elite Eight in every single bracket I fill out this March. Their most likely opponent would be the 2-seed of the region Michigan State. This would be a scary matchup for the Blue Devils. Tom Izzo’s bunch deserves to be a 1-seed, given how they proved emphatically they are the best team in the state of Michigan and in the B10.

If this matchup came to fruition, I would expect Duke to be 4 or 5-point favorites. This is a rather large margin for an Elite Eight game and speaks to the confidence I have in Coach K, Zion, and the rest of the Blue Devils. MSU is a 1-seed in disguise but Duke still holds the upper hand.

If we played this region out 10 times, Duke wins at least 7 of those. They are the tournament favorites for good reason. They have a pretty easy path.

Michigan State Spartans – Path to the Final Four

One year removed from a Second Round loss to 11-seed Syracuse, Tom Izzo is trying to get back to the Final Four for the first time since 2015. A potential Second Round matchup against conference foe Minnesota would be a near-certain win for Sparty in my book.

It may be because images of Syracuse celebrating are still fresh in my mind, but I do not fully trust the Spartans. Sure, they are the best team in the B10. Sure, they are 1-seed-caliber. I mean, this is a team that has beaten top-10 Michigan 3 times along with wins against Wisconsin (2x), Florida, Iowa, Ohio State (3x), and Purdue. This is also a team that lost to Illinois and was swept by NIT-bound Indiana. The Spartans are inconsistent.

Earlier, I alluded to a potential Minnesota-MSU Second Round matchup. Well, that matchup could just as easily be Louisville-MSU. This would be a rematch from November 27th, a day on which the Cards beat Sparty 82-78.

Michigan State is given the 2nd-best odds to win the East at +325. Everyone is looking forward to that matchup with Duke. If State is not careful, they will not make it that far. They need to get past Louisville, LSU, and maybe even the popular 11-seed Belmont.

Popular Upset Picks in the East

Liberty Flames

Fans love themselves some Cinderellas and this region has 3 of the more popular ones. I hear experts talk about 12-seed Liberty all the time. This team is getting so much love that it is easy to forget Liberty is 7.5-point underdogs! When an upset pick becomes too popular, it loses its value. This is exactly what I believe is happening to Liberty. I’m taking the Bulldogs to win like they are predicted to.

Belmont Bruins

This one is an even greater stretch. Belmont is also getting tons of love from the mainstream media. Folks are ecstatic that the committee gave the Bruins a chance despite their loss in the OVC tourney title game.

Can they shoot it a little? Sure, but they are an 11-seed for a reason. I’ve heard many proclaim that Belmont over Maryland is their favorite upset pick. This makes me laugh because that matchup might not even exist. Remember, Belmont still needs to win a First Four game against Temple just to get a chance in the First Round.

With everyone so focused on that Belmont-Maryland matchup, I have heard no one, literally zero people, give Temple a chance. Numbers don’t have feelings. Numbers don’t care what the media is saying. When everyone and their brother is betting Belmont, the numbers say we should bet Temple.

Yale Bulldogs

I’m not sure this one is popular, but it is probably my favorite upset pick of the tourney. LSU is the perfect example of a team loaded with talent who consistently underperforms. The Tigers closed out their regular season very strongly, grabbing the SEC regular season crown. Did they take advantage of the 1-seed in the SEC tourney? No, they lost their first game to a middling Florida Gators squad.

With their coach suspended and the program engulfed in controversy, there is a legitimate chance that LSU shows up unfocused and underprepared. Obviously, Yale is going to have to catch some breaks if they are going to win, but this is a good matchup for them.

Yale relies heavily on two players. The first, 6’6 guard Miye Oni, is a future first-round pick and is the best player on Yale’s roster. He is averaging 17.6 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game while shooting 45.5% from the field and 39.0% from deep.

The heart-and-soul of the Bulldogs is senior guard Alex Copeland. I absolutely love betting on teams with strong, upperclassmen leadership in the backcourt. Copeland averaged just under 14 ppg this year while maintaining a terrific field goal percentage of 51.2.

Copeland proved in the Ivy League title game against Harvard that he is someone who can put the team on his back and win them a tournament game. The senior went off for 25 points and 7 assists on 64% shooting. The best part … he had zero turnovers!

Yale’s last NCAA tournament win came in 2016 against 5-seed Baylor. Call me crazy … but it wouldn’t surprise me if the Bulldogs found themselves in the Sweet 16 this year. I believe they match up very well with LSU and then await the winner of Maryland-Temple (yeah, I said it).

Every year, a double-digit seed no one expected to win a single game winds up in the Sweet 16. I believe Yale has as good a shot as any double-digit seed to pull off the feat this time around.

The best part about March Madness is the action is fast and furious. You do not have to wait long to see if you were right. Basketball fans and sports bettors alike, welcome to heaven!