Army-Navy Game 2022: FanDuel Moneyline Odds, Point Spread Pick, and That Blasted Over/Under Trend

 

Gaming based on Army-Navy football games is a strange trip for many WagerBop regulars. TD-to-INT ratios are less critical stats in an era of scientific FBS passing attacks, but the quarterbacks at service academies are judged mostly by how many touchdowns they manufacture vs how few turnovers they commit. Academy teams often flourish on offense while allowing too many points to opposing teams, but defenses still tend to shine in Commander-in-Chief rivalry bouts. HCs Jeff Monken and Ken Niumatalolo’s respective playbooks at West Point and Annapolis are knocked as “old fashioned,” though the “Flexbone” came 60 years after Curly Lambeau invented the Shotgun-Spread.

Heck, even the branding of Army and Navy sports is kind of confusing. The words “Army” and “Navy” refer to the abstract concepts of a nation’s ground and sea forces, and are utilized as adjectives as often as nouns. The common custom a century ago was to refer to Army and Navy’s football clubs as “The Army” and “The Navy,” also awkward enough that head coaches wound up saying things like, “My 42 kids just defeated The Army today.” Officially, the college football teams now known as “Army” and “Navy” are called “Army West Point” and “Naval Academy at Annapolis” … not quite so snappy-looking on a poster.

There’s one crystal-clear angle for newbie gamblers to grasp onto in Week 15. Army and Navy produce a ton of low-scoring games. How many low-scoring games? Monken and Niumatalolo’s often high-powered, high-scoring teams are working on a double-digit streak of “Under” outcomes against Las Vegas point-total lines. That’s despite the best efforts of pro handicappers and bookmakers, who have set opening O/U lines for the Army-Navy Game lower than those on any NFL game between teams with injured starting quarterbacks. The lines continue to plunge downward every year, and yet the Black Knights and Midshipmen keep posting final scores under the key number. Navy’s Top-25 ranked team in 2019, led by record-setting QB Malcolm Perry, couldn’t push the game’s eventual point-total over 40 points despite winning by 3 touchdowns. Autumn of 2013 featured the last Army-Navy Game that produced 40+ points on the scoreboard. The 2020-2021 series of COVID-era bouts totaled exactly 45 points … in 8 quarters.

FanDuel is among the sportsbooks to copy Sin City’s consensus in setting Saturday’s Army-Navy meeting at Over/Under (33.5) points. That’s not the most conservative market possible on a rivalry kickoff that totaled 15 points in Army’s win at home last year. Angles preventing 2022’s O/U odds from descending into Dante’s Ninth Circle include fair weather predicted in the scrum’s December 10th venue of Philadelphia, and the fact that Navy (4-7) and West Point (5-6) have developed into such evenly-matched squads in late fall.

It doesn’t matter how many time-consuming field goal drives go down on the ledger. If starting QBs Xavier Arline of Navy (+1.5) and Tyhier Tyler of Army (-126) wound up in a last-minute duel of drive-leading, or if the game goes to OT, then 2022 could well become the game which snaps the betting trend. That “Under Total Points” isn’t a sure-thing wager.

Neither are the teams’ stiffening late-year defenses any kind of fluke. Power-5 innovator Paul Johnson’s tricky playbook has helped the Mids and Knights through plenty of lean years at OL, quarterback, and receiver. But the steady improvement of defense and special teams in Commander-in-Chief’s pigskin can be traced to the recent decisions of military brass. In the 2000s, Army and Navy linemen were forced to endure grueling water-pill regimens to get their weight down to around 200 pounds for military training, then gorge-out on protein until they were somewhere close to Varsity size again.

It was hard for service-academy programs to fight through those regulations and produce a competitive front-7 against rivals like Notre Dame every campaign. Lately, a subculture of pro-sports generals and admirals have employed common sense in letting frosh-plebe linemen have a healthier transition, and the results are illustrated on the gridiron and in the recruiting office, as more 3-star seniors imagine the military-prep lifestyle as more tolerable than it used to be. Navy’s defense goes into the 123rd Army-Navy Game after holding Tulane, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, and UCF to minimal 2nd-half yards in consecutive games. Monken’s defense was too much for the revived Connecticut Huskies in Army’s 34-17 victory on 11/19, despite renowned UConn coach Jim Mora’s best game-planning.

It’s alarming to each coaching staff that Army and Navy’s attacks have become so single-dimensional in an otherwise heartening stretch-run. Arline doesn’t have the deep-arm of Will Worth and other 10-win Navy quarterbacks, and cannot threaten bombs-away series against Army’s fast-improving rush-defense. Tyler is yet another role-playing QB on an Army offense that sticks to the Johnson formula, though the upperclassman’s proven big-play rushing ability is more credited than Arline’s.

With irony, the angle that Navy and Army’s play-callers believe they might have to open things up, or-else lose by a shut-out score in 2022, could keep the “Under” from being the obvious, winning pick against sportsbooks on Saturday. Each opposing defensive line will be charged-up for different reasons, the Black Knights in an effort to “Beat Navy!” and secure a bowl berth at 6 wins, and Navy’s to “Beat Army,” but also to spoil that West Point bowl berth.

Furthermore, Army and Navy’s burgeoning LB corps are expert at stepping-out, or stopping pitch-play attempts on QB options with a fast step toward the sidelines that does not compromise tacklers’ ability to pursue the B-back up the middle. However, it’s the effectiveness of that tactic against faster-paced Navy and Army offenses, not lousy ones, that’s helped to produce the crazy Over/Under trend in Week 15’s match-up. When opponents grind-out 1st downs against all odds, often using 4 straight runs between the hashes to do so, the game-clock melts away even when drives don’t end in points. That creates a very, very bad scenario for sportsbook users who’ve bet on the Over.

For instance, if Saturday’s game begins with a pair of easy 3-and-out series for each defense, the maverick Niumatalolo will be happy to experiment with sugar-huddles and trick plays, while Monken’s team will be likely to heave downfield with several bomb attempts. Resultingly, such a ragged and wide-open Army-Navy Game could feature 4+ TDs scored even if the rushing-yards stats are pale compared to the scrum’s typical box score. The flip-side is that neither HC is trained to view his team’s razzle-dazzle ability as a trademark or a staple of game-planning, the way that Mike Leach does. We’ll probably only see Army-Navy turn into a battle of long TDs when more record-setting QBs emerge, and thus any success Army or Navy experiences on the ground will produce more hand-offs, canceling itself-out as a point-scoring angle thanks to the game’s winding clock.

Army’s 2022 run defense is deceptively strong at “113rd ranked” in the FBS. West Point debuted against killer run-blocking teams like Coastal Carolina and Wake Forest, but later held Louisiana-Monroe, Troy, and most importantly, Air Force to relatively poor rushing days in consecutive bouts after the leaves turned. Still, given the success of Niumatalolo’s diminutive, fast rushers like Dafa Fofana against Notre Dame and other highly-touted defensive teams, it’s irresponsible not to ask if Navy will find a way to produce 10:00 “death-march” drives against rival West Point all over again this weekend.

Predicting the 123rd Army-Navy Game Against the Spread

Army appears to be the complete team with a higher ceiling, given that Navy’s been struggling to manufacture long drives all season, while Tyler’s offense was anticipated to produce at least 7 victories against an uneven Army schedule this fall. The only way to accomplish that goal now is for Army to “Beat Navy!” and go on to the postseason. Conversely, though, we’re not recommending Army’s thin (-126) moneyline odds to win. Saturday’s slight favorites will win by many more than (-1.5) points if they play their best football, while Navy’s blue-collar offense cannot hope to take a 3-touchdown lead under almost any circumstance.

Army’s going for a blow-out at Lincoln Financial Field, and Navy’s the team hoping to win by 1 or 2 points if necessary. If the latter scenario occurs, it would scarcely have been worth it to hold a losing ticket that wasn’t going to pay-off very much anyway. Army’s proven, confident offense provides more than a (-1.5) edge.

As for the event’s point-total trend, 2022 may not be the year to gamble 10+ units on Army and Navy’s streak of “Under” results continuing to grow. Still, WagerBop recommends that O/U speculators who are not betting on the Army-Navy Game should take note of the vibe of this December’s contest anyway.

If a pair of frustrated Flexbone offenses finally give-up running headlong into a wall, and toss a few more long passes around, that’s evidence of the O/U streak finally coming to an end soon. But if Annapolis and West Point continue to produce winning drives without ever putting the pigskin in the air, then the Army-Navy Game may stay low-scoring longer than FDR was Commander-in-Chief.

WagerBop’s Pick: Army ATS (-1.5)