A Guide To NFL Live Betting

Betting on the NFL is one of the most fun things there is, because of how immersive it is within the sport itself. Thanks to the ability to bet on games as they are happening, bettors have the opportunity to place bets before, during, and after each game is played. But live betting can be tricky if you aren’t someone who does it all the time, so let us guide you through the ins and outs of live betting on the NFL and get you ready for some of the most fun action in sports betting.

What Is NFL Live Betting?

Live betting on the NFL is exactly what it sounds like, in that you are betting on an NFL game live, as the game is taking place. Instead of playing a pre-game wager on an NFL game, here you can bet on all kinds of markets with each snap. The odds for these betting markets change regularly as plays take place, as the likelihood of the bets winning or losing changes based on the outcome of each play.

There are a couple of different ways that sportsbooks go about live betting on the NFL. A lot of the top sportsbooks out there choose to update these odds throughout the game, as often as after every play. Whereas other sportsbooks can release these odds during commercials breaks or stoppages only, then take them down once play resumes again. Knowing which of those approaches you prefer is important, because you’re going to want to find a sportsbook that offers that capability before you start using a website.

If you are discerning enough, you can use those constant changes to your advantage, finding value in different situations to maximize your chances at making profitable bets. And as long as you show enough restraint to only make smart bets when live betting on the NFL, you have a great chance to build your bankroll regardless of how well your pre-game decisions are going.

Live Spread Betting

Live betting against the spread in NFL games is a great way to find spread value that may not have been there before a game. The spread is adjusted throughout the game based on what is happening in the game, meaning that the line that you see as the game is going on can look radically different than what was available prior to kickoff.

For example, let’s say that a team was a three-point favorite heading into an NFL game, and they score a touchdown on their first possession to go up 7-0 in the first quarter. That touchdown would change the live betting odds on the game, possibly changing the spread for the game or just changing the odds for the current number to be covered. Either way, there would be a change to the spread betting market.

What is interesting about live spread betting, and live betting in general, is that the changes are dictated by things like how the opponent has looked during the game and other items that you just can’t get from a regular pre-game bet. So if the team that gave up a touchdown on the first possession dropped an easy interception before giving up the score, that could have an effect on just how much the line moved in our hypothetical example.

This very reasonable example is a testament to how much you need to pay attention to what is going on when live betting on the NFL. Everything, down to the slightest detail, is considered when lines are adjusted. Knowing what is happening at all times and using that information to your advantage is key to placing successful live bets during these games.

Live Moneyline Betting

Live moneyline betting during NFL games is similar to spread betting, only instead of betting on a team plus or minus a specific number of points, you are just wagering on who will win the game straight up. In theory it should be easier to predict which team is going to win the game, but there are plenty of components that can make it just as challenging as betting against the spread, if not more so.

Moneyline betting is very difficult no matter when it is being done, thanks to the heavy vig that is placed on each side of the action. The favorite tends to be well overpriced on moneyline bets, especially when one team is a big favorite over the other. This means that you will have to lay down a solid chunk of money to win your desired win amount. This isn’t always the case, as some teams are only slight favorites and are more reasonably priced, but in a game that is expected to be a blowout you might want to find a betting market that offers more value without the need for a big initial investment.

Underdogs see a similar situation on the moneyline. They are often underpriced relative to where they should be based on the implied probability of the favorite to win the game. Given that upsets happen all of the time in the NFL, you would think that this would be a case of bookmakers just trying to limit their liability, but that can still make it difficult to justify backing an underdog to win straight up when you have to overcome both their pricing and the talent gap that might exist on the field.

But when betting on moneyline markets during games, you can take advantage of the fact that the lines can overreact to a few big plays to give yourself a chance to win a healthy profit. For example, in a game where the opening line was tight between the two teams, one score by the underdog could be all that it takes to make the pre-game favorite into the underdog, with plenty of time for that team to do what they need to in order to get back in front. So by betting them when they are underdogs, you could be getting yourself a very advantageous line that wasn’t available before the game.

Then there is a very useful trick, where bettors are able to use the pendulum-like swings of live betting odds to find more and more value in betting on both sides at plus money during the course of a game. Instead of comitting to one team, it is possible to bet both sides when they show up at plus money during a game to guarantee yourself a profit regardless of the outcome of the game. How legal this is at your sportsbook can vary, so be sure to check the rules of your chosen betting site to make sure that you are not in violation of their terms of use before using this idea.

Live Totals Betting

Betting on totals during an NFL game is fascinating because of just how much they can change over the course of a possession, let alone a game. This makes sense, given the amount that one play can change the ability of a team to score on a possession, which can then throw the entire game’s scoring total out of control.

For example, if a team is moving down the field and looking like they have a chance to score, the live betting odds for the total at that time could increase as it looks like the point total for the game is going to increase. But if that team then takes a penalty that drastically reduces that chances of that drive resulting in points being put on the board, that could very much change the live betting total that is available going forward.

This is another case where the most important thing you can do is to keep an eye on what lines are moving, and to ask yourself why that is the case. You sometimes end up with a situation where the total moves in a way that runs counterintuitively to the action that just took place on the field, which can inform your decision if you are someone who uses line movements to make decisions.

Similarly, keeping an eye on the statistical output of each team during the game is a smart move when looking at the live totals. If a team’s yards per play output is way above its season average, that is something you can use to find where a live total might be too low, or too high if the team is underperforming relative to their average performance at racking up yards on offense.

Just like with betting against the spread, live betting on NFL totals is all about paying extremely close attention to everything that is going on within the game you are looking to live bet on. Because observing even one minute detail that might have been missed by everyone else could give you the edge that you need to take in some big time winnings.

Exotic Live Wagers

For bettors who like to have more fun with their live betting, there are some pretty exotic bets out there that are made available throughout the course of NFL games. Some of these bets require hyper awareness of everything that has gone on during a game, while others are just for fun and really don’t involve too much thought. Either way, they continue to make betting on NFL games during the game a lot of fun.

Some of the more detail-oriented markets include things like what the outcome of the next drive will be, or what the first play of the next offensive series will be. These markets can be had if you keep an eye on what types of plays teams are running at the start of each drive and how their drives have been ending over the course of a game.

For example, if a team has been handing the ball off for a running play to start all of their possessions, the odds will suggest that they are going to do it again. But that also means that you can get long odds on that team running a pass play to start their next possession in the event that they want to change things up. The same can be said about the outcome of each offensive series. If a team has been scoring touchdowns at will against their opponent in a game to that point, you can get long odds in the event that their opposition gets a stop.

Then there are props that ask you to predict what will happen later in an offensive series, like what kind of play the offense will run in the second play of a series. These are tougher to predict as they depend largely on what happens on the play before it. You may be able to use information like the percentage of plays that a team runs which are run and pass plays, but these are more speculative than the other markets mentioned above.

General Live Betting Strategies

When it comes to live betting, you really have to take everything on a case-by-case basis. But there are some general strategies that you can follow to give yourself the best chance to win. When applied correctly, these strategies are able to give you an edge in certain situations that other bettors would not think to take advantage of.

The first of these strategies is to bet against the grain, so to speak. This entails going against the line movement in a game after something happens that prompts said movement. Doing this can get you better odds or a better line than you otherwise would have had, while you still get to bet on the market that you were looking to grab originally.

For example, if a team that came into a game favored by a touchdown scores the game’s opening touchdown, their line might move to 10 points. Betting against the grain in this situation would mean backing the underdog, as you would get a better line than you would have had before the game started. If the game finishes near where the oddsmakers originally thought it would, you would end up with a cover by going against the grain in this situation.

When betting on totals, the same principles apply. If a team scores an early touchdown and pushes the total up right off the bat, going against the grain would mean betting the under, to make sure that you got a line better than the original total set by the books. This by no means guarantees a win, but could make it a little easier to cover a bet that you were contemplating before the game started.

Another strategy is going with the picks that the sharp money was on for a given game, while trying to get a better line than was available before the start of the contest. While live betting is betting after a portion of an event has been completed, the portion of the game that was completed was still only a part of the full game that is to be completed. By rolling with the sharps at an adjusted line, you’ve got a good chance of covering or hitting the necessary total.

And the best thing about live betting is the fact that you can develop your own strategies based on which teams you like to pay attention to and their tendencies. If you notice something unique about a specific team or player, you can use that to your advantage when live betting to create value for yourself that not many other bettors will be aware of. This is why it pays to be so detail-oriented when taking part in live betting.

Things To Avoid When Live Betting

Just like there are several things that you should do when live betting on the NFL, there are also some that you should be sure to avoid. In a game where the goal is to maximize the opportunity of making a profit, these things can actually reduce a bettor’s chances of making money when betting on the NFL as a game is unfolding.

The first of these items is to blindly follow one blueprint when live betting. There are so many different ways that a game can go and so many things that can make NFL teams and games vary. So if you want to follow the sharp money in one game, or go against the grain in a game where such a strategy is called upon, that makes sense. But doing the same in every game is a recipe for placing losing live bets. Just like with any form of NFL betting, things should be evaluated individually and not across the board.

This idea also applies to going with the grain too often. Earlier, we discussed going against the grain and how it can be an effective strategy toward finding value against the public. Well, going with the grain is going with the betting public, which usually doesn’t provide the kind of value that a winning bettor would want. There are times that such a strategy is warranted, such as games where the line was too high or low to begin with, but those games are usually few and far between given how well oddsmakers can set lines for games.

Another thing to avoid is live betting just to get action on a game. With constant live betting odds available for games all the time, it is tempting to throw an extra wager on a game with the hopes of it hitting and your bankroll increasing. But there is the possibility that those bets also lose, as they are usually made without a lot of reasoning behind them. Just not making these action bets is a smart move that can save you money in the long run, allowing you to use that money on smarter wagers that you put more thought into in the future.

The same can be said for placing a live bet on something to chase a pre-game wager that you have made. Say you bet on a team that was favored by seven points heading into a game, and they are down by three touchdowns late in the game. You think, to cover your losses, that you can jump on a live betting line to give yourself a chance to salvage the game.

There is a huge flaw in that thinking, and that flaw is the fact that the two bets are in no way related. The team you originally bet on could lose by 70 points for all you know, and torpedo both of your bets. So making the second bet just to try and counter the first is not a sound betting strategy. This can be said about any form of betting “on tilt” where a bettor tries to cover their previous losses by making another bet that isn’t based on logic or reason.

This is one of the biggest sources of betting losses, as sometimes it is better to pack it in and live to fight another day than to hurt your bankroll in the long-term. Even though crazy things can happen in football, there is no guarantee that the universe will reward your persistence in the form of salvaging your one day of wagers. Instead, take the occasional loss and come back better and smarter the next day like a discerning bettor would.

Clearly there is a lot going on when it comes to live betting on the NFL. There are a ton of different markets to choose from and a ton of things to consider before and during your bets. But if you go about live betting in an intelligent way, you will find that there is definitely the potential to carve out a method of making money over an extended period of time. Whether or not the work ethic and ideas to make it work is up to you, but the tools are all there for a great NFL season both before and after the games kick off.