Bills @ Texans – Week 6 Preview

An 0-3 team has a 2% chance of making the playoffs in the NFL. A 3-3 team has roughly a 38% chance.

The Houston Texans’ odds of playing into January were unduly bleak just two weeks ago but suddenly are not so bad. Only the painfully inconsistent Buffalo Bills stand between head coach Sean McDermott and a .500 record.

We have seen good, bad, and ugly football from both opponents. With each at 2-3, I could see this one going right down to the wire. I could also see this being a 40-point blowout – in either direction. That is how frustrating these two teams are to handicap.

Texans Have Won Back-to-Back Games

Because of this impressive showing, Vegas has rewarded Houston with a 10.5-point spread to cover on Sunday. Of course, I had to see what teams have done historically in this situation. Turns out it is a good spot to be in.

Winners of at least 2 straight games are 14-4-1 ATS in their last 19 when favored by at least 10 points.

Year	Record ATS
2017	10-4-1
2016	4-0

This looks great but I want a second opinion … and a third … and a fourth … Let’s continue!

Is This A Good Spot for the Bills Too?

I was totally feeling a Texans bet coming but then I ran across this little nugget. It turns out that when 2 teams, each with 2 wins or less, face each other during or after Week 6, road underdogs play very well ATS.

Uh-oh! Conflicting numbers! That’s never good! Look at this trend and decide for yourself whether it is legit.

Year	Record ATS	Win %
2017	3-2	60%
2016	2-2	50%
2015	8-4	66.7%
2014	4-1	80%

Of course, neither of these trends has a very large sample size, but it is still a bit unsettling to find numbers that favor each side so strongly.

Let’s try to find some more info to help us determine who is going to win this football game.

Back to the Basics – Favorites Kill it When Favored Big

Forget the fancy criteria. Let’s just look at what happens when a team is favored by 10 or more. Do they play well or fall flat?

Year	10+ point favorites ATS	Win %
2018*	3-1	75%
2017	18-13-1	58.1%
2016	11-3-1	78.6%
2015	11-8	57.9%
2014	13-10	56.5%

* through 5 weeks

Saying that large favorites have covered the spread well recently is a gross understatement. A 61.5% winning percentage ATS over the past four and half seasons is pure gold. This system has volume too, averaging 22.25 plays per year.

If we trust these numbers and ignore the others, we should be putting our money on the Texans, right? Well … I suppose that is true, but I am not a fan of ignoring numbers that make us feel uneasy.

A huge part of being an educated bettor is having restraint and discretion. I do not feel confident in either side and will not be betting this game.

You may feel slighted having read this entire article and not gotten a prediction out of me. Look at it this way: If I kept you from betting on this unpredictable mid-season mess, I did my job. I have no clue who is going to win this football game and neither do you.

Bad bets we do not make can save us just as much money as good bets that we do make. There are plenty of other games on the docket in Week 6. Go sniff out some value – it sure ain’t here!