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NFL Week 2 – By the Numbers

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Yeehaw. What a wild ride in Week 2. We saw a 20-point Cowboys comeback to get Mike McCarthy his first Dallas W. We saw Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury take over yet another game and improve to 2-0. Aaron Rodgers went off again … so did Lamar.


On Sunday Night Football, the Patriots were on the 1-yard line with 4 seconds to go but couldn’t punch it in and suffered their first loss of the Cam Newton-era. Conversely, Tom Brady hooked up early and often with Mike Evans and led the Bucs to an easy 31-17 victory over Carolina.

The Bills are 2-0 for the second year in a row. The Giants are once again 0-2 … so are the Panthers. The Lions, Bengals, Jets, and Dolphins are all 0-2, as well – no surprises here.

Whether you watched every minute of every game or you are just now realizing the NFL season has begun, this “By the Numbers” breakdown will help you learn the landscape of the new NFL and identify value in the betting market.

11

The number of teams beginning the 2020 season 2-0. The Bills, Chiefs, Ravens, Steelers, Titans, Cardinals, Rams, Seahawks, Packers, Raiders, and Bears are all undefeated through two games.

11 teams at 2-0 is up two from last year. Only 7 teams were 2-0 in 2018. The Pittsburgh Steelers are 2-0 this year but were 0-2 after two weeks last season. Pittsburgh is the only 0-2 team from 2019 to turn it all the way around in 2020.

85

The number of points the Green Bay Packers have won this season – the most in the NFL. The Ravens have scored the 2nd-most points in football with 71.

The Packers beat Minnesota 43-34 in Week 1 and then thrashed the Lions 42-21 in Week 2. Green Bay’s point differential is +30 – the 2nd-best differential in the league. Baltimore’s differential is best. The Ravens are +49 through two games.

The Packers are one of just three teams this millennium to score 85+ points in their first two games of the season.

The last team to score 85+ points through their first two was the 2013 Broncos. Denver scored 49 points in their Week 1 win that year and followed it up with a 41-point effort in Week 2. The 2009 Saints were the other team to accomplish this feat in the 2000s. New Orleans scored 45 and 48 in their opening wins that season.

It is an extremely good omen for Green Bay to open the season so hot. The 2009 Saints started the season 13-0, finished 13-3, and went on to win the Super Bowl. The 2013 Broncos began 9-1, finished 13-3, and made it to the Super Bowl. Quick … go put some action on a Packers futures bet!

 

78

The number of points allowed by the Falcons this season. Atlanta lost 38-25 to Seattle in Week 1 and then dropped a heartbreaker to the Cowboys 40-39 in Week 2.

Atlanta blew a 20-0 lead to Dallas on Sunday – the first 20-point blown lead of the season. This is the largest blown lead since the Texans blew a 24-point lead in the AFC Divisional Round of the 2019 playoffs. The last regular season 20-point blown lead was in Week 11 of last season when the Denver Broncos blew a 20-0 lead to the Vikings and lost 27-23.

 

1

The number of overtime games this season. We got our first OT contest of 2020 when 60 minutes wasn’t enough to settle the Chiefs-Chargers contest Sunday. The Chiefs were on upset alert – trailing 17-6 with 3:11 to play in the 3rd quarter. KC stormed back to force overtime and then won the game 23-20 with a long Harrison Butker field goal in the extra quarter.

Rookie Justin Herbert in his NFL debut went blow-for-blow with Patrick Mahomes all afternoon. The MVP Mahomes was 27 of 47 for 302 yards. Herbert was a more efficient 22 of 33 for 311 yards.

Mahomes averaged 6.4 yards per pass. He threw 2 touchdowns and avoided picks. His QBR was 84.7 – very solid. Herbert averaged more yards per pass – 9.4 – but threw just 1 touchdown and got picked off once. Herbert’s QBR was 75.7.

Mahomes was a threat on the ground as well. He rushed 6 times for 54 yards, including a 20-yard scramble on 3rd and 20 to pick up a crucial first down in the eventual game-winning drive. Herbert was mobile as well, rushing 4 times for 18 yards.

 

22

The number of tackles by Seahawks safety Jamal Adams. The former-Jet has wowed in his first two games with Seattle. Adams recorded 12 tackles (8 solo), 1 sack, 2.5 tackles for loss, and 2 quarterback hits in a Week 1 win versus Atlanta.

Adams then picked up 10 more tackles (6 solo), 1 sack, and 2 quarterback hits in the Seahawks Sunday Night Football victory over New England.

Adams is tied for the 6th-most tackles in the NFL this year with 22. Of any player with 22 tackles or more, Jamal Adams has the most sacks and tackles for loss.

 

30

The combined point total in the Bears 17-13 win over the Giants. This is the lowest combined total of Week 2. In Week 1, the Chargers and Bengals scored just 29 points combined. Tennessee and Denver combined for 30 on Monday night in Week 1.

Week 2 was a week for high-scoring games. 11 of the 16 contests went over the Vegas total – many by a lot. 15 different teams scored at least 30 points in Week 2. This means 15 different teams scored more than the Bears and Giants combined.

11

The number of home teams to win SU in Week 2. Home teams were 11-5 SU this week but just 8-8 ATS.

In Week 1, home teams were 8-8 SU and 8-6 ATS. This gives home teams an ATS record of 16-14 in 2020. This 53.3% winning percentage is barely enough to overcome the 10% juice on spread bets. Home team bettors are up $60 this year.

Home teams had a terrible season in 2019. ATS, home teams were 109-144 (43.1%). Home team bettors lost $4,940 – an ROI of -17.2%.

230

The total number of rush yards by the Baltimore Ravens in their 33-16 win over Houston on Sunday.

3rd-year back Gus Edwards paced Baltimore on the ground with 73 yards on 10 carries. Veteran and former Heisman trophy winner Mark Ingram rushed for 55 yards on 9 carries plus added a touchdown. Lamar Jackson scrambled 16 times for 54 rushing yards. J.K. Dobbins – the Ohio State rookie – added 48 yards himself on 2 carries.

The Ravens rushed for just 111 yards in their Week 1 thrashing of Cleveland. 230 yards is more like what the Ravens are used to doing on the ground. Baltimore dominated the rushing game last season.

In 2019, the Ravens led football with 3,296 rushing yards. This averages out to 206 per game. Baltimore also led football in rush attempts (596) and yards per rush attempt (5.5).

The Ravens were second in the NFL in rushing touchdowns (21). No other team was remotely close to matching the Ravens’ rushing numbers in 2019. The next closest team – San Francisco – ran for 991 fewer yards than Baltimore. That’s the Lamar Jackson difference!

 

6

The number of NFL games all-time which have ended with the score 30-15, according to Scoregami. The Cardinals beat the Washington Re*****s 30-15 on Sunday.

This was just the 3rd 30-15 game this millennium. The Dolphins beat Pittsburgh 30-15 in Week 6 of the 2016 season. Carolina beat the St. Louis Rams 30-15 in Week 7 of the 2013 season. The last 30-15 game before this was in the 1998 season when the Steelers beat the Jags.

There are many ways a football team could get to 15 points. 5 field goals would do it. A touchdown with an extra point then a touchdown with a 2-point conversion would do it. How did Washington reach 15 points on Sunday? A field goal, touchdown with missed conversion, and a second touchdown with a missed conversion. 3 + 6 + 6 = 15. Voila!

2

The number of NFL games all-time which have ended 40-39, according to Scoregami. The Cowboys beat the Falcons 40-39 on Sunday after being down 20-0.

The only other 40-39 game occurred in 2002. Kansas City met Cleveland in Week 1 and beat the Browns 40-39.

Had the game-winning field goal missed, Atlanta would have won 39-37. This would have been the first 39-37 game in NFL history. Games where each team scores this many points are quite rare. There have been just two 40-38 games in history and just one that ended 41-39. There has never been a 40-40 tie, but there was once a 38-38 tie back in 1960.

3

The number of NFL games all-time which have ended 37-19, according to Scoregami. The Rams beat the Eagles 37-19 on Sunday. LA missed an extra point at the end of the game – giving them 37 points instead of the more common score of 38. The Eagles had a 2-point conversion and several field goals – giving them the unusual score of 19.

The last 37-19 game was played in 2014 between Pittsburgh and Carolina. The Steelers beat the Panthers 37-19 after Carolina had a failed 2-point attempt on their last touchdown.

The first ever 37-19 game was between the Titans and Eagles in 2010. Philly lost the game 37-19 to Tennessee but kicked 4 field goals, getting them to 19 points.

316

The number of passing yards by Bengals rookie quarterback Joe Burrow in Cincy’s 35-30 loss to the Cleveland Browns on Thursday Night Football.

The #1 overall pick was very solid despite losing the close game. In Week 1 against the Chargers, Burrow threw for just 193 yards. He threw zero touchdowns and one pick. His QBR was an abysmal 19.0.

This week, Burrow was strong. He dropped back 61 times, completing 37 of his attempts for 316 yards. Burrow lobbed three touchdown passes against Cleveland and avoided the interception bug. His QBR in Week 2 was 76.6 – very respectable for a rookie QB with little to work with.

Despite a good Week 2 performance, Burrow’s season numbers are not great. His 509 total passing yards ranks 19th in the league. His 49.2 QBR is 25th among all quarterbacks.

 

440

The number of consecutive wins by teams who score at least 39 points and don’t turn the ball over. In the history of the NFL, scoring 39+ and holding onto the ball guarantees victory. Teams to do this were 440-0 … until Sunday.

The Falcons never turned the ball over in their 40-39 loss to Dallas this week – making Atlanta the first ever team to lose despite 0 turnovers and 39+ points. This spot has now won in 99.77% of games, not 100%.

According to ESPN Stats & Information, holding a 15-point lead with less than five minutes to go is a fairly advantageous spot in the NFL. In fact, teams to find themselves in this position were 1875-6 since the turn of the century. No team has blown such a lead since the Saints had their hearts broken against the Re*****s in Week 11 of 2017.

A 15-point lead inside of five minutes remaining proved to be too difficult for Atlanta to protect on Sunday. The same squad who blew the 28-3 lead in the Super Bowl now has another infamous collapse added to their ledger.

6

The number of star NFL players who received season-ending injuries in Week 2 action. In a bloodbath of a Sunday, we lost at least 6 good players for the season – many with ACLs. These players are Saquon Barkley, Von Miller, Nick Bosa, Derwin James, Tavon Young, and CJ Uzomah.

Also sustaining injuries were Christian McCaffrey, Michael Thomas, Drew Lock, Jimmy Garoppolo, AJ Brown, Sterling Shephard, Cortland Sutton, Tyrod Taylor, Malik Hooker, and Parris Campbell.

It could be coincidence, but most believe the spike in injuries to be a result of the missed NFL preseason. Players are not in the same shape as they would be in a normal year and the increased injury rate shows it.

8

The number of Sunday Night Football wins for the Seattle Seahawks since Russell Wilson’s rookie year in 2012. Sunday night’s victory over New England puts Seattle at 8-4-1 in these primetime games.

ATS Seattle is now 9-4 (69.2%). Betting the Seahawks spread for each SNF game in the Russell Wilson era would net bettors a cool $460.

This latest SNF win had to feel good for Wilson who had actually dropped his previous two Sunday night games. Last season, the Seahawks failed to punch it in on the goal line and lost an instant classic in Week 17 to the 49ers. Three weeks prior, Seattle lost by two touchdowns on SNF in Week 14 to the Rams.

These two losses interrupted a 5-game SNF winning streak for Wilson. The former Wisconsin standout is an excellent bet in all primetime games, not just Sunday night.

Using Killersports query feature, I pulled up all regular season games in which Russell Wilson has played on Sunday night, Monday night, Thursday night, Saturday, or Thanksgiving games. The numbers are incredible.

The Seahawks are 24-8-1 SU in these games. They are 22-9-2 ATS. This is a 71.0% winning percentage ATS which equates to $1,210 in profits.

Since 2012, the Seahawks are the best ATS regular season primetime team in football. Seattle boasts a 33.4% ROI on all primetime spread bets since Wilson has taken over at quarterback. This blows the next-highest team – Atlanta – out of the water. The Falcons have a 24.9% ROI on primetime spread bets since 2012. The Patriots are third with a 21.3% ROI.

 

16

The number of targets from Raiders quarterback Derek Carr to tight end Darren Waller in Las Vegas’ 34-24 win over New Orleans on Monday Night Football.

Carr looked for Waller on nearly every passing play. Carr’s next-most targeted receiver had just 3 targets.

Waller hauled in 12 of Carr’s 16 passes for 103 receiving yards and a touchdown. This is fresh off an impressive Week 1 performance in which Waller caught 6 passes for 45 yards. Combined, Waller’s 18 receptions rank 2nd in the NFL while his 148 receiving yards rank 20th.

These first two games are a continuation of Waller’s tremendous 2019 season in which he caught 90 passes for 1,145 yards and 3 touchdowns. His 1,145 receiving yards and 90 receptions were both 2nd among all tight ends behind Travis Kelce.

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