Betting Western NFL Favorites Out East

This article title and its contents may seem familiar to you. You are not having deja vu. This is the second part of my “Western NFL Teams Out East” series. The first entry focused on underdogs – this one talks about favorites.

Much is made by announcers and fans of west coast road trips but travelling east is actually more difficult. For starters, because there are far more eastern teams, you have to travel cross-country more frequently if you play on the west coast.

You lose time heading east as opposed to gaining it, making it seem like your games are starting early in the morning.

And then there is the humidity. When a team leaves the thin air of Denver for the muggy beaches of Miami, you can be sure they will fatigue quicker than the home team.

Enough conjecturing, let’s pull in some cold, hard facts. Here is how road favorites from the West have fared ATS versus teams in the East over the past 11 years.

Year	Record/% as Fave	Average Spread
2017	5-8-2 / 38.5%	-4.1
2016	7-6 / 53.8%	-2.6
2015	10-7-1 / 58.8%	-4.1
2014	6-4 / 60%	-4.0
2013	17-5-1 / 77.3%	-4.5
2012	7-4 / 63.6%	-3.4
2011	3-1 / 75%	-2.9
2010	1-2 / 33.3%	-4.5
2009	0-3 / 0%	-9.8
2008	0-1 / 0%	-6.0
2007	0-4 / 0%	-5.4

Vegas Is Stubborn

As always, we now take the data and determine some trends. These western favorites absolutely killed it from 2011-2016, posting a 50-27-2 record ATS (64.9 win %).

The average line in that stretch was -3.58. The western favorites finally stumbled in 2017, despite the average line being only -4.1. This tells me it was not a keen bookmaker adjustment causing this downturn but simply poor play or bad matchups.

From 2007-09, the lines were stacked against these western favorites, the average at -7.07. It is no surprise they suffered through a 0-8 ATS spell. From 2010-2017, odds makers found a range for spreads they liked and stuck to. This range was from about -2.5 to -4.5 and the average line in this period was -3.9.

The books were losing horribly on these games and yet they refused to drastically shift their lines. Perhaps they thought that the road favorites were constantly getting lucky breaks. This may explain 1 year of exceptional play, but when it occurs for 8 years it is no fluke!

Watch the Western NFL Favorite Lines Closely

In the article on underdogs, we noticed an obvious line shift by bookmakers to correct a trend. We have yet to witness that adjustment for favorites.

2018 has only seen one such game, featuring the Chargers travelling to Buffalo to face the Bills back in Week 2. LA was favored by 7.5 points and covered, winning 31-20.

The Bills abysmal showing in Week 1 probably contributed to the 7.5-point line. Watch future lines closely for western favorites. If they continue to be more in the 6, 7, or 8-point range it indicates that the books are making adjustments.

If this is the case, hop on the eastern underdogs all day as we have the perfect opportunity to get ahead of this trend. If Vegas continues to post 3 or 4-point lines, we can be confident that western favorites will continue to cover.