MLB 2020 League Leaders in Batting Average, Home Runs, ERA – Hitting .400 Plus More

The MLB announced a 60-game 2020 season and baseball purists are petrified. A friend of mine put his foot down and insisted, “if anyone breaks Lajoie’s record it doesn’t count”. He was referring, of course, to Nap Lajoie’s all-time-high single season batting average of .426 back in 1901.

Here’s my hot take – a 60-game season won’t produce the crazy, ridiculous stats records some are fearing.

I wrote a piece during the summer of 2019 in which I explored stats leaders on June 1 and their likelihood of holding onto the crown come season’s end.

I recently ran into this piece by C Jackson Cowart in which he discussed the possibility of a hitter finishing the 60-game sprint with a batting average above .400.

Using both articles as inspiration, I decided to expand upon Cowart’s work by exploring batting average leaders, home run leaders, RBI leaders, ERA leaders, and win leaders through 60 games. My goal is to create realistic ranges that we can expect the MLB stats leaders to fall into after a 60-game season.

My Process for Digging Up 60-Game MLB Stats Leaders

Googling “mlb stats leaders after 60 games” didn’t get me very far. I had to use 2 of my favorite online baseball stats resources for this research. First, I used the “standings by date” tool on Baseball Reference to find the 60-game mark for each season over the past 20 years.

Each team reaches the 60-game mark on different dates, so like Cowart, I decided to use the date when the first team in the MLB reaches 60 games. This date was somewhere between June 2 and June 10 every year.

Once I found the 60-game marks, I went over to Fangraphs and used their “custom date range” feature to bring up the stats leaders through 60 games for each season. Unfortunately, this tool can only be used back to 2002, so my research had to end there. Still, 18 seasons worth of data is a good sample size.

In order to qualify for the batting average lead or the ERA lead, players must fit the qualifiying criteria set by the MLB. For the batting title, this is 3.1 plate appearances per team game played – which comes out to 186 plate appearances through 60 games. For the ERA title, this is 1 inning pitched per team game played – or 60 innings through 60 games.

Can Anyone Hit .400? MLB Batting Average Leaders Through 60 Games

Forget .426. Is it likely for anyone in baseball to eclipse a .400 batting average in the shortened 2020 season? Take a look.

The following table shows the qualifying MLB leader in batting average after 60 games for each season dating back to 2002. Only once in the past 18 seasons – Chipper Jones in 2008 – has the batting average leader after 60 games been over .400.

Year	Player	AVG
2019	Cody Bellinger	.376
2018	Mookie Betts	.359
2017	Ryan Zimmerman	.372
2016	Daniel Murphy	.379
2015	Dee Gordon	.362
2014	Troy Tulowitzki	.353
2013	Miguel Cabrera	.366
2012	Melky Cabrera	.364
2011	Jose Bautista	.354
2010	Robinson Cano	.370
2009	Ichiro Suzuki	.356
2008	Chipper Jones	.407
2007	Magglio Ordonez	.360
2006	Joe Mauer	.368
2005	Derrek Lee	.378
2004	Sean Casey	.374
2003	Albert Pujols	.369
2002	Ichiro Suzuki	.376

Most seasons, no one is even close to .400 at the 60-game mark. Check the table closely. After Chipper’s .407 start, the next highest average on the list is Daniel Murphy hitting .379 in 2016.

Do MLB Hitters Have the Advantage in 2020?

Many claim that the long coronavirus layoff gives hitters an advantage this season. As a former player and long-time follower of baseball, I think the opposite is true – pitchers will have the upper hand in 2020.

You see, pitchers have been able to practice their craft this entire layoff. Hitters have not. Hitting is all about timing. Pitching is repetition.

All a pitcher needs is a mound and he can simulate game-situations. This could be in a batting cage, a high school field, or even a basement. There doesn’t need to be a catcher present.

I had a teammate in college who built himself a wooden mound. He kept it in his basement. He threw off of it into a heavy-duty vinyl backdrop that he hung from the ceiling 60 feet, 6 inches away.

He also owned a set of weighted baseballs for arm strengthening. On his own time, from the comfort of his own basement, my friend could do arm workouts and simulate live pitching.

Hitters have no such method of replicating live reps. Soft toss is decent. Hitting off a machine is alright. Tee work helps. Apart from getting together with teammates and facing live MLB pitchers – which the players weren’t supposed to do – hitters cannot simulate in-game at-bats.

It will take all of Spring Training 2.0 for hitters to regain their timing. I have to believe that the driven, hard-working pitchers will enter July already in great form.

Hitting .400 through 60 games is improbable in a normal year. It will prove even more difficult in the shortened 2020 season.

MLB Home Run Leaders Through 60 Games

It would sure look clunky in the record books for the home run king to hit less than 20 dingers this season. While 21 or 22 are obviously low marks as well – there is something about seeing 19 next to the home run leader that makes me cringe. I would feel like I was in the dead-ball era.

Fortunately, the numbers indicate that a player reaching 20 home runs through 60 games is very likely. I also need to mention that MLB home runs have been trending upward for years now.

Year	Player	HR
2019	Christian Yelich	22
2018	Mike Trout / JD Martinez	19
2017	Aaron Judge	18
2016	Mark Trumbo	20
2015	Giancarlo Stanton	21
2014	Nelson Cruz	21
2013	Chris Davis	20
2012	Josh Hamilton	22
2011	Jose Bautista	20
2010	Jose Bautista	18
2009	Adrian Gonzalez	22
2008	Chase Utley	21
2007	Alex Rodriguez	21
2006	Albert Pujols	25
2005	Alex Rodriguez	19
2004	Adam Dunn	18
2003	Mike Lowell / Adam Dunn	18
2002	3 tied*	20

* Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Sammy Sosa

Albert Pujols hit 25 homers through 60 games in 2006. This makes him an outlier. The other 17 60-game leaders have all hit between 18 and 22 home runs – a very narrow range.

MLB RBI Leaders Through 60 Games

Of the cumulative offensive stats, RBIs are the most volatile. We’ve had 60-game leaders fail to make 50 while 60-game leaders in other seasons have reached 65.

Year	Player	RBI
2019	Josh Bell	53
2018	JD Martinez	50
2017	Ryan Zimmerman	48
2016	David Ortiz	55
2015	Giancarlo Stanton	51
2014	Nelson Cruz	55
2013	Miguel Cabrera	65
2012	Josh Hamilton	59
2011	Adrian Gonzalez	48
2010	Miguel Cabrera	52
2009	Evan Longoria / Jason Bay	55
2008	Josh Hamilton	65
2007	Magglio Ordonez	53
2006	Albert Pujols	65
2005	Carlos Lee	55
2004	Scott Rolen	63
2003	Carlos Delgado	58
2002	Alex Rodriguez	56

There is no way of telling which type of RBI season is in store for 2020. Based on my assertion above that pitchers will have the upper hand, I think 2020 may yield a 60-game RBI leader on the lower side of the range – closer to 50.

MLB ERA Leaders Through 60 Games

ERA – like batting average – is an average. Unlike the cumulative stats which are in danger of setting record worsts (HR, RBI, R, SB, W, S etc.), ERA is in prime position to set a new record best.

Excluding records set in the 1880s-1910s, the modern single-season ERA records for both the American and National leagues were set in 1968. Bob Gibson set the MLB record of 1.12 in the National League while Luis Tiant set the American League record at 1.60.

The 1968 season was labeled The Year of the Pitcher due to the outrageous pitching stats and minuscule hitting stats posted around the league. Carl Yastrzemski led baseball with a .301 batting average – to give an idea of the prosperity occurring that year.

The MLB decided to lower the mound beginning in the 1969 season in an effort to reintroduce offense into the game. Since the lowering of the mound, Greg Maddux holds the single-season ERA record with 1.56 in 1994.

Unlike Lajoie’s record, Maddux’s is in jeopardy. 3 of the past 4 60-game ERA leaders have been below 1.56.

Bob Gibson’s modern-era ERA record is very safe, however, as only Ubaldo Jimenez in 2010 would have bested him.

Year	Player	ERA
2019	Hyun-Jin Ryu	1.48
2018	Justin Verlander	1.24
2017	Dallas Keuchel	1.67
2016	Clayton Kershaw	1.46
2015	Gerrit Cole	1.73
2014	Johnny Cueto	1.68
2013	Clay Buchholz	1.62
2012	Brandon Beachy	1.98
2011	Josh Johnson	1.64
2010	Ubaldo Jimenez	0.93
2009	Zack Greinke	1.55
2008	Edinson Volquez	1.46
2007	Jake Peavy	1.68
2006	Brandon Webb	2.14
2005	Kenny Rogers	1.62
2004	Roger Clemens	2.08
2003	Esteban Loaiza	1.90
2002	Tom Glavine	1.57

MLB Win Leaders Through 60 Games

If you see a prop bet for the amount of wins the leader will have at the end of the 2020 season, it is worth making. In each of the past 18 seasons, the 60-game wins leader has had either 8, 9, 10, or 11 wins. 9 is the most common number.

Year	Player	W
2019	2 Tied*	9
2018	Max Scherzer	9
2017	Dallas Keuchel	9
2016	5 Tied#	9
2015	Gerrit Cole / Jose Fernandez	9
2014	Mark Buehrle	10
2013	Patrick Corbin	9
2012	RA Dickey / Lance Lynn	9
2011	2 Tied%	8
2010	Ubaldo Jimenez	11
2009	Roy Halladay	10
2008	Brandon Webb	10
2007	CC Sabathia / John Lackey	9
2006	5 Tied^	8
2005	Dontrelle Willis	10
2004	2 Tied**	9
2003	Jamie Moyer	9
2002	Curt Schilling	11

* Justin Verlander and Domingo German

# Jose Fernandez, Chris Sale, Jake Arrieta, Johnny Cueto, and Stephen Strasburg

% Yovani Gollardo and Kevin Correia

^ Brandon Webb, Mike Mussina, Curt Schilling, Tom Glavine, and Jason Marquis

** Roger Clemens and Kenny Rogers

 

Spring Training 2.0 is in session. Opening Day is within sight! Hang in there!