Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos: MNF Betting Preview

To understand the parity of the teams of the NFL, it helps to think of any knowledge you have of high school and/or college sports. Doesn’t need to be college football – some principles hold true in all athletics and competitive endeavors.

Teams that are in similar circumstances, that are formed in similar ways, tend to have close contests. That’s why conferences and divisions are what they are. Football is organized so that every roster has some kind of fighting chance. And then when you get to the NFL level, it’s organized so that it’s almost impossible to be assured of victory.

Heck, it’s rare for an NFL club to be great at one thing, yet absolutely suck at another. Kickers, for instance, tend to “vibe” their locker rooms and if everything is going badly, they might have an awful year, but if things are going great then it’s all easy chip-shots. Units on a team ideally feed off each other – most are able to at least play mediocre football in inspired moments.

That’s why the 2018-19 Kansas City Chiefs are so remarkable. The Chiefs are so outstanding on one unit, yet so dreadful on another, that it’s almost an absurd sight. Yet the team is winning – and Vegas doesn’t quite know what to do with them.

Andy Reid’s squad is favored by (-5) points and is a (-210) moneyline favorite over the hosting Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football. The game’s current O/U total is (55), but I’m sure KC fans would joke that it should be “555” instead, given their emotional state watching the team.

The visiting offense is on a record pace. Patrick Mahomes broke Peyton Manning’s record by throwing 13 touchdown passes through 3 games (on pace for a staggering 65+ on the season). Andy Reid deserves a ton of credit for orchestrating the offense, and throwing in new wrinkles every week, but Mahomes is simply executing with remarkable efficiency.

But as exciting as the offense is, it’s a sad fact that anyone can score on the KC defense. The same analytics that rank Kansas City #1 in the NFL on offense rank them dead last on defense.

The hapless unit could get some help with then return of Eric Berry, who missed the start of the season with a foot injury and remains less than 100%. He’s been training on and off this week. The Chiefs haven’t even had a good scare yet because of how well the offense is playing, but at some point they’re going to need playmakers on the defense to step up.

Travis Kelce has 3 career games eclipsing 130 receiving yards. 2 of those are against the Denver Broncos. The Broncos aren’t doing any better defending tight ends this season, allowing 10 catches for 218 yards and a score to TEs through 3 games. Denver doesn’t have any one player who can match up with Kelce, and with the numerous weapons on the KC offense, they can’t afford to double team him regularly.

Expect to see a combination of linebackers and athletic safety Justin Simmons on Kelce, and even Von Miller at times – a variety of looks to try to throw off Mahomes.

Case Keenum has been up and down as the Broncos starter. Keenum is moving the ball very well, but his kryptonite curse is the propensity to throw backbreaking interceptions at critical times.

Keenum has looked exceptional in the 4th quarter, completing 72.7% of his passes with 2 game-winning drives. Vance Joseph seems confident that Keenum is the team’s answer at quarterback. He could potentially have the chance to show off against a weak KC unit.

I’m liking Kansas City ATS, because I don’t trust the Denver offense as much as the head coach does.

However, the strongest play on the KC-DEN board is over (55) points. Denver should score at least 3 touchdowns, and I’m thinking the Chiefs will score at least 5. If a 14-point swing happens to go the Broncos’ way? That makes 4 and 4 touchdowns…and 56 points.