Perception vs. Reality In NFL Betting

Perception is reality is a phrase you hear frequently from the more existential among us, to say that things are as you see them in life. But when it comes to betting on football, perception is not always reality, or even close to it. In fact, NFL bettors regularly have to wage a battle between perception and reality to make the best possible wagers. Some of these ideas and examples are great illustrations of that battle between perception and reality in football betting.

A Sportsbook’s Mission

To understand the role that perception and reality play in sports betting, it’s important to know why sportsbooks do what they do. You’ll often hear people talk about how sportsbooks are trying to get an even amount of action on each side, so the book can pocket the vig and call it a day. This might be true on a number of occasions, but isn’t the full-on reason that sportsbooks set odds and offer action to players.

The goal of sportsbooks is to make money offering sports wagers to their players. Sometimes this means getting an even amount of action on each side to make sure that the book can profit off of the vig. On other occasions, it means setting a line that will prompt a disproportionate amount of bets on one side to ensure that bets go toward the side that should be less desirable in the eyes of the book. There are any number of scenarios that can play out when it comes to the types of lines that sportsbooks set, but keep in the back of your mind that generating a profit is why these sites exist.

Sometimes, in an effort to maximize their ability to profit, they will play off of the perception that exists for a certain team or player to set a line that looks too good to be true. This can create a greater risk for the book, but can lead to a larger percentage of mistakes from the betting public as well. So what is perception as it pertains to betting, and why is it so dangerous?

Public Perception In NFL Betting

Public perception in sports betting is the general consensus surrounding a given team or player heading into a sporting event. On a lot of occasions, that perception is shaped by sports media personalities and other sources that have no business being anywhere near topics that can impact how a game is wagered on. But, believe it or not, public perception can often be extremely wrong when it comes to diagnosing sporting events relative to their actual outcomes.

For example, you will often hear predictions via sports media leading up to games in the NFL that talk about how a double-digit favorite is going to get the job done because of how bad the underdog in that matchup is. And while that underdog could be the worst team in the history of the sport, betting on games based on which teams are perceived to be good and bad is not a great strategy. After all, if the good team always covered the spread against a bad team, bookmakers wouldn’t be able to stay in business, would they? This is where remembering the mission of sportsbooks comes in handy, to battle the sometimes-misguided perceptions of those around us.

The biggest problem with public perception in sports betting isn’t just that it can be misguided, it is that it can be misguided because of how lazy it is. Everyone has misinterpreted a betting line or otherwise had a bad selection, and there is nothing wrong with that kind of error in perception. But it is when a poor perception is based on a lack of quality analysis of the game that is the recipe for disaster.

Going back to our example above, with the good team as a double-digit favorite over a hypothetical bad team. The error in perception involving that game isn’t that the bettor or analyst took the good team over the bad team despite having to lay the points. It is doing so without taking the time to understand why that might be a good idea that is the problem. For all we know, the favorite in that scenario could have a huge matchup advantage over the inferior squad due to injuries or other reasons. But without taking the time to understand why a team is a heavy favorite and determining whether or not that is justified, the bettor could be making a big mistake.

Totals Perceptions

And public perception isn’t something that is limited to just betting on games against the spread. Totals betting also has a lot to do with battling public perception, as totals can often be more difficult than betting on games against the spread as the temptation to rely on previous performances and preconceived notions is so much more prevalent.

For example, games that feature the New Orleans Saints tend to get a good amount of action on the over, as it is assumed that Drew Brees and the team’s high-powered offense will be enough to push the total over on a regular basis. What those bettors are ignoring is that there are some situations where that is not a smart play as, again, sportsbooks wouldn’t be able to survive if they were just handing out cash on the over for every Saints game.

The Impact Of Betting Trends

This was the case in the Saints’ week two victory over the Cleveland Browns in 2018. The Saints were a huge favorite and the total implied that it was expected that the team would put up tons of points. But that didn’t happen, as the Saints defense held them in check for the majority of the contest in what was a very entertaining game. The game totaled 39 points, which resulted in an easy under.

New Orleans Saints totals bring up a very interesting criticism of betting trends. Betting trends are the quirky stats that you hear before most games, that talk about a team’s performance in certain betting situations over an extended period of time. Things like “the Saints are 5-1 against the spread in their last six home games” are examples of betting trends. And while they are interesting, the perception around them is that they are much more worthwhile than they actually are.

The reason that these trends aren’t valuable is that they include games over a long period of time, and include games that feature completely different situations than whichever situations a team is in heading into that specific game. It’s great if the Saints went 5-1 in their last six home games, for example, but what if they faced a backup quarterback in one of those games, or a key defender was injured for one of their opponents? Those numbers just don’t tell the full story about any of the games that were played during the trend period.

Brand Name NFL Teams

Some franchises in the NFL have a certain brand equity to them, where they are thought of as some of the best teams in the entire league based on their rich history and tradition of winning, their popularity, or other factors that have nothing to do with the game of football. The perception around these teams is that they are often worth backing even if they aren’t, because they are supposed to be better than their opponents, even if that couldn’t be farther from the truth.

A perfect example of this is the 2018 Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers have a decades long history of winning football games and competing for championships, which has made them very popular both in terms of how many fans they have and how often they are wagered on. But this year, there are a ton of factors that have made them worse than those fans and bettors perceive them to be.

When you think about the Steelers this season, you think about a team that is without its best players in Le’Veon Bell due to a prolonged contract dispute. You think about a team whose best wide receiver in Antonio Brown is talking about wanting to be traded on social media and not showing up to practices. And you think about a team whose defense has been a complete disaster since they lost Ryan Shazier to his tragic injury last season.

But the Steelers have still been favored in their first three games of the 2018 season, even as they have played the Browns, Chiefs, and Buccaneers, three teams that have rapidly improved from where they were last season. The brand name of the Steelers has prompted action on them as favorites each week, which has been anything but the right decision as evidenced by their unimpressive play on the field.

This is again where you have to remember that sportsbooks are out to make money. They know that they can still get a ton of action on the Steelers as an undeserved favorite because of the perception of the Steelers as a legacy franchise in the NFL. It is an interesting situation, but definitely one where public perception and reality have taken different paths.

Big name teams are by far the biggest source of public perception ruining the ability of bettors to win as they get caught up on who a team is rather than what a team is capable of on the field in a given situation. Make sure that you do not fall into the same traps by using our tips to using reality to defeat perception, which we’ll get to a little later.

What Is Reality In NFL Betting?

Now that you have an understanding of what fuels public perception in NFL betting, it is time to get real, and understand some of the things you’ll want to look for to debunk potential pitfalls in betting perception. These items range from statistics involving the teams that are playing in a given game, to observing the trends that surround a given contest, to basic roster analysis for a game that you might be wagering on.

Chief among the things bettors should look for are statistics, which are every NFL bettor’s best friend. Stats never tell the full story, but they usually do a really good job of cutting down unsubstantiated claims that should be backed up with information before any bettor accepts them. There are both stats that pertain to an upcoming game by itself, or larger trends across the league that can dispel myths and public perceptions.

Which stats should you use when making your decisions for NFL betting you ask? Well, there are quite a few stats out there that can help give bettors a better grasp of reality, but these numbers in particular should really help those looking to take their NFL betting abilities to the next level.

Per Play Statistics

So often you will hear analysis heading into a game that mentions how many yards a team racks up per game, or something similar depending on what point is being made. But no matter what statistical category is being covered, it is worth noting that finding out what a team is averaging per play is a lot more useful when it comes to determining the ability of the teams heading into a given game.

The reason for this is that per game statistics don’t do a good job of conveying what has happened in a team’s games throughout the season. For example, if you have a team that likes to keep the ball on the ground and use up the play clock and a team that likes to spread out and run the hurry-up offense, those are two radically different styles of play. The result of that is usually two very different yardage totals per game, because the team running the hurry-up offense will get more snaps and more possessions with the football in most games.

But just because the team that likes to slow things down averages fewer total yards per game doesn’t mean that they are not deserving of consideration to be wagered on. That is where per play statistics come into play. If it turns out that both teams are moving the ball at a rate of five yards per play, regardless of their tempo, you know that the team that plays at a slower pace is just as effective when they have the ball, even if they take longer to move the ball down the field. In fact, it could be argued that the team that plays slower in this example would have an advantage, in that their defense would have more time to rest on each possession.

Finding stats that don’t depend on offensive tempo is way more important than people realize when they bet on NFL games. Remember to find them yourself and you will be in a better position to win your wagers.

DVOA

DVOA is a metric from Football Outsiders, which is meant to give bettors an idea of who the best overall teams, offenses, and defenses are when they are evaluated with several key factors weighted in. Just like per play statistics, DVOA serves to give you a better picture of the reality surrounding NFL teams which is something that skewed stats like yards per game just can’t do.

This metric adjusts for the tempo that teams play at, the number of snaps that they play on defense, the strength of a team’s opponents, and various other factors that serve to determine who the best team is on a completely level playing field. This metric is usually more effective later in the season, when each team has a larger sample size to be compared to the rest of the league. But it is definitely a good one to have in your sports betting arsenal.

Turnover Differential

Turnovers are so important when it comes to NFL games, as one turnover can completely change the complexion of a drive, a half, or a full game. And knowing which teams are guilty of turning the ball over the most frequently is important, as you might want to avoid backing those teams in a tight game given their willingness to give the ball to their opponents.

On the flip side, you may want to know which teams have forced the most turnovers and what kind of turnovers they have benefited from. If a team has been collecting interceptions left and right, it is good to go back and watch those plays. After all, a pick from a well-disguised coverage is way different than a pick that came off of the hands of a wide receiver and just happened to go to a defender off of a deflection.

The same can be said about fumbles, which can often be a sign that a team is more lucky than good on the turnover front. The likelihood of a ball carrier losing the football is usually slim, so even if a defender does a great job of ripping the ball out of the hands of a player, it may not mean that there is a sustainable blueprint to forcing turnovers for that team.

There is something to be said about fumbles not being worth considering at all when it comes to evaluating teams for betting purposes. They really are a product of luck more than anything else, and should be treated as such despite the perception that forcing fumbles is some sort of sustainable defensive ability.

Making Your Own Decisions

This is by far the most important thing to remember when using reality to take on public perception in NFL betting. It doesn’t matter if you agree with the majority of bettors or if you disagree with them. The most important thing that any bettor can do is to make sure that they are making their own decisions based on the information that they have looked at to form them.

Fading the public is a common rallying cry among some sports bettors, and sometimes that decision is warranted. But the decision to go against the public is never warranted just because the public should be ignored. Rather, when the numbers and information justify fading the public, that is when that practice should be employed. Regardless of what the perception is surrounding a given game, reality doesn’t care if it agrees with the public, the sharps, or some combination of the two. You have to get out of the habit of worrying about what other bettors are doing, and focus on making the smartest decisions that you can.

How To Use Perception vs. Reality To Your Advantage

Now that you have an idea of what fuels the difference between perception and reality in NFL betting, you can start using some of those ideas to your advantage to place better NFL bets. Here are a couple of quick tips to help you do that, to get your mind thinking like a sharp so you can win like one as well.

First, it really can’t be overstated how important it is to try and take the actual teams out of it when you are betting on football, or at least the team names. Yes, the Patriots tend to be a better franchise as a whole than the Cleveland Browns. But that disparity as a whole has nothing to do with the situation surrounding a particular game between those two teams. As always, it is important to evaluate each game on a case-by-case basis to make sure you aren’t costing yourself wins by looking at the name on the jersey instead of the players in those jerseys.

Also important is to not be afraid to beat on teams that you may not feel comfortable with when the numbers and situations are appropriate. The Buffalo Bills can look abysmal during a given season, but if they are a second half team, you can’t be afraid to pull the trigger on backing them when it is advantageous to do so.