Tottenham vs Man City: Handicapping Premier League Odds, Totals on Matchday 25

Welp, it’s official – Liverpool is going to win the 2019-20 English Premier League. There is absolutely no question about it.

All that’s left to find out is how much history Reds will make in domestic (and UEFA) competition this spring…and how battles to reach the top 4 and avoid the bottom 3 will shake out.

To gain perspective, consider that Mohamed Salah’s club could win just 5 of its next 10 Premiership matches and lose the other 5 – an almost-unthinkable slump for a hereto-now unbeaten side – while Man City or Leicester City went on an epic winning streak of 10-0-0 in the same span of time, and Liverpool would still lead the table by at least 4 points and possibly 7 points with 4 matches to go. It’s over.

Is Liverpool ’20 the best team from the United Kingdom in a generation, perhaps even better than Manchester City last season? Or are the other 19 clubs all flawed in some way so that Reds have an easy waltz to glory? That’s the sort of debate which transcends the Premier League and even the sport itself. Many of Floyd Mayweather’s victims have been criticized after losing, but Mayweather specializes in getting foes out of their comfort zones. The bottom line is that he’s never lost. It’s the same with the soccer team that’s won 23 of 24 league fixtures. Rationalizing the Liverpool W-D-L record away is now a fringe activity for the club’s eternal haters.

Sure, you can pick at the other EPL contenders. Man City is focused on a Champions League title and looking a bit wobbly (by Sky Blues standards, anyway) in all domestic competitions outside of the FA Cup. Leicester recently lost to Saints and Clarets in succession and was upset by Villains in the EFL Cup. Chelsea and Man United have had see-saw campaigns, allowing Wolves to stand tied for 5th place despite only prevailing in 8 out of 24 league appearances. Tottenham and Arsenal are in transition.

But there’s no denying Liverpool is pretty special, and not just on the attack. In mid-January, Reds allowed a total of 1 goal in 270+ minutes against Spurs, MUFC, and Wolves while notching 3 more victories. Salah’s 12 goals are nearly matched by Sadio Mané’s 11 tallies and 8 from Firmino. Defender Trent Alexander-Arnold has a stupendous 10 assists, showing that an emphasis on goals-against hasn’t diminished the squad’s electric ball-movement from the back.

The last Premiership club to go undefeated in all 38 matches was Arsenal in 2003-2004. But even that mark could pale in comparison to Liverpool’s current season. Gunners played cautiously at times to protect “Invincible” status, careful not to over-extend in front of keeper Jens Lehmann. The team finished the cycle with 26 wins and 12 draws. Liverpool is gunning (excuse the pun) for a new kind of invulnerability, and could easily break City’s record for 32 triumphs in a season…set way back in 2019 or something like that.

Speculators must now react to the EPL table a tad earlier than usual. We deal with a lot of “pure” tactics in midseason, with managers making choices that give their clubs the best chance to win on a given weekend. But with the 2019-20 fates of so many brands appearing set in stone, skippers may begin thinking long-term even in February. For instance, a team like Newcastle is unlikely to be relegated, has no realistic chance at a UEFA bid, and is still alive in the FA Cup. Steve Bruce is unlikely to press ailing footballers into action or wear-out his starting 11 prior to the upcoming tournament date with Oxford. Pep Guardiola of Man City will be careful with superstar minutes, given that Sky Blues are unlikely to rise to 1st or fall to 5th. 

Meanwhile, though, there’s a logjam below Chelsea on the table, with United, Spurs, Wolves, and even Sheffield United looking to make some noise and potentially pass Pensioners if Frank Lampard’s team suffers another swoon. Those clubs are more likely to go all-out to win at every opportunity, even though some have other prestigious competitions to worry about. Is it a good time to bet on the top half of the table and not the also-rans?

Bettors on the maiden match of the weekend won’t have to grapple with that, since each team is currently in contention…contention in the “B flight” below Reds anyway.

Leicester City vs Chelsea

This crucial match has seen a small surge of moneyline bets on Leicester (+150) following a ragged and disappointing late January for both clubs.

Chelsea failed to produce goals in a recent road fixture at Newcastle despite possessing the ball for over 60:00 and attempting 10 corner kicks. Blues were often clumsy when defending counterattacks, and an ailing Tammy Abraham left the pitch as Magpies held the match scoreless until getting a goal from midfielder Isaac Hayden in the 94th minute. Foxes can’t claim to be in much better form than Blues, but did assert dominance over West Ham in a 4-1 win at King Power Stadium last Wednesday.

Everyone seems to like the Under (3) but with the 2 sides off for 2 weeks after Saturday’s early meeting, I’ll predict that we’ll see a ton of intensity on the attack and a fast pace that produces at least 3-4 total goals. The price on the Over is generous at (+110).

Pick: Over 

AFC Bournemouth vs Aston Villa

It’s been said that ice hockey teams go into slumps with deadlocked final scores and come out of them the same way. Could it sometimes be true in English football as well? Bournemouth’s 1-1 draw with Arsenal on Boxing Day portended a series of 4 straight Premiership losses for Cherries, finally snapped with a 3-1 win over Brighton.

Still, you can’t say the losses came against especially fine clubs (West Ham, Watford, and Norwich City out-scored Bournemouth 8-0 in a stretch of 3 fixtures) and Aston Villa must be floating on air after qualifying for a League Cup final vs Man City on 3/1. Saturday’s underdogs are a quality pick on macro-analytics alone.

Pick: Aston Villa (+250) 

Crystal Palace vs Sheffield United

We’ve heard of underdogs, underachievers, and underground. How about the Under-Bowl? Or rather the Under-Derby. CPFC is well known for conservative strategy and zonal defending, but Sheffield is among the stingiest clubs in all of Europe. Each team is coming off a loss and has no reason to change all that much in the way of tactics, but I believe that the Draw line should be slimmer than it is for a match that could finish 0-0 or 1-1 or 2-2 without much more than a collective yawn from worldwide supporters.

Pick: Draw 

Liverpool vs Southampton

There should be no neglecting the shock-result of January 26th’s 4th-round FA Cup fixture at New Meadow. Somehow, someway, a League One side known as “Shrews” mounted a 2nd-half comeback against Liverpool, earning a 2-2 draw that was even less expected than AFC Wimbledon’s epic upset of West Ham last winter.

What’s more, it wasn’t against Liverpool’s “C” lineup which recently fell to Villains with 20+ players in Japan for the Club World Cup. Salah, Alexander-Arnold, Fabinho, and Divock Origi among others played in the match. Shrewsbury Town didn’t even play 4 across the back, making it more embarrassing that Reds couldn’t answer in the last 45:00.

But there’s also a notion that Jürgen Klopp could be pleased with the result. It reminded a confident Liverpool roster that it can be beaten, except it wasn’t – Reds are still alive in the FA Cup. I can’t imagine the team doing anything but crushing Saints in a get-well appearance on Saturday.

Pick: Liverpool ATS (-1.5) 

Newcastle United vs Norwich City

There’s a young woman on my Facebook feed who recently posted, “Does anyone have any Newcastle children’s photos?” She was obviously talking about a neighborhood or a school district, but I couldn’t help playing dumb for a few moments.

“Thought you’d never ask. Go Magpies!” I commented with the following image:

Guess I’m becoming 1 of those Premier League junkies.

We already dished on Newcastle’s likely caution in upcoming fixtures, but Bruce will want to capitalize on a winnable match with visiting Canaries first. 3 points on Saturday would set the club out ahead of any possible 2020-relegation scare once and for all.

Plus, the team got a hell of a sigh of relief at Goodison Park last week. Scroll down to Watford vs Everton for an astounding highlight clip.

Pick: Newcastle (+120) 

West Ham United vs Brighton

Speaking of relegation scares, Hammers need to watch it. That goes for Seagulls too, actually.

Pick: Under (2.5) 

Watford vs Everton

Toffees began to improve in form just as I had given up on them in late 2019. But a surreal blown lead in the final seconds – literally – led to a 2-2 draw and the gnashing of teeth vs Newcastle last Tuesday.

Pickford is certainly prone to the occasional big mistake. The keeper’s lack of “field awareness” (as they say in America) in the 95th-minute scramble allowed Magpies to score without actually tricking him. The “save” was made. But it was too deep.

Keepers don’t get famous for no reason, though, and we’re guessing he’ll be on-point against Hornets. Watford has only scored 2 goals in 3 matches and lost its FA Cup replay to League One side Tranmere on Sunday.

Pick: Everton (+165) 

Manchester United vs Wolverhampton

Speaking of “Under” gold rushes, pretty much any match involving Wolves is going to have its share of low-side total bettors. Wanderers held Liverpool to 2 goals in a slender loss on 1/23 – no small feat – but hasn’t posted a clean sheet in Premiership play since late 2019. Meanwhile, the Red Devil attack went stagnant in mid-January but came alive in tournament play over the last 2 matches. Nemanja Matić’s controversial red card in the EFL Cup semifinals will be honored (or “honoured”) by the Premier League in Saturday’s stand-alone late match.

Wolves’ opening 4-to-1 moneyline has shrunk to (+240) thanks to an overwhelming number of underdog-to-win wagers. I’m going against the public as United is bound to snap out of its league funk despite Marcus Rashford’s woes…but may only score once or twice in prevailing.

Pick: MUFC

Burnley vs Arsenal

Recent results have made Gunners only a (+100) favorite on the road against Clarets on Sunday. Burnley’s brief winning streak is likely to come to an end as Arsenal begins to gain confidence under manager Mikel Arteta.

Pick: Arsenal 

Tottenham vs Manchester City

Spurs is my underdog pick of the week, even though a wager ATS (Tottenham (+1)) might be a better gamble than picking a club to beat Man City with an injured, absent Harry Kane.

Social media is getting to know the particulars of Kane’s body as well as any mistress he ever might have had.

Harry Kane gives injury update as Tottenham star reveals he is 'making progress' https://t.co/VeVYRk9r3t

— Sun Sport (@SunSport) January 30, 2020

Neither is Hugo Lloris ready to return for Spurs. But remember that this is the time of the season (as The Zombies put it back in the day) for City to begin pulling away from the throttle in domestic competition. A trio of Citizens will miss Sunday’s match at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium with injuries, and the visitors are worried enough about their backline to try to bring in defender Jan Couto as soon as possible. Despite the lineup issues for each side potentially balancing-out and leaving neither club with a marked advantage, gamblers are obviously hesitant to pick Tottenham, leaving the lines right where they’ve been.

That’s good news for underdog gamblers too.

Pick: Tottenham (+450) or ATS (+1)