The UFC’s second pay-per-view event of July happens this Saturday, July 27.
At the beginning of the month, we saw Jon Jones vs. Thiago Santos headline the highly-anticipated UFC 239 event in Las Vegas, Nevada. This weekend, it’s all about Max Holloway vs. Frankie Edgar, a UFC Featherweight Championship bout, as well as the return of Cris Cyborg.
As always, WagerBop is your go-to destination for sports betting news and advice. We’ll break down the main and co-main event of UFC 240 so that you know where to find the best odds and what the best bets are ahead of this UFC PPV event.
We’ve got one inside the distance bet on Holloway vs. Edgar, as well as one rather surprising bet we’re making on Cyborg vs. Spencer.
Let’s get started.
Max Holloway vs. Frankie Edgar
Max Holloway returns to the UFC featherweight division just one fight after he attempted to capture gold in the weight class above. Holloway moved up to 155-pounds in an attempt to win the UFC Interim Lightweight Championship in a fight with Dustin Poirier. Holloway and Poirier battled it out for five, hard rounds in what proved to be one of the greatest fights of the year so far.
At the end of it all, however, Holloway’s face told the story. He was battered and bruised, as Poirier controlled the overwhelming majority of the bout and went on to win a clear unanimous decision.
For Holloway, that would be his first defeat since 2013 and it would be enough to end his remarkable 13-fight winning streak.
Frankie Edgar is a former UFC lightweight champion and legend of the sport. This weekend, he has yet another opportunity to become a champion in two different weight divisions in the UFC.
At UFC 156 in 2013, Edgar had a chance to become a featherweight champion when he faced Jose Aldo. However, Aldo handed him a defeat via unanimous decision and it was back to the drawing board for Edgar. But he did rise to the top again and has remained a top contender for many years now.
Edgar had been slated to face Max Holloway for the title twice already, but out-of-cage injuries kept the two from competing. Now, at UFC 240, he finally gets his chance to step inside the cage with Holloway.
Max Holloway vs. Frankie Edgar Odds
Max Holloway vs. Frankie Edgar Breakdown
Although Frankie Edgar’s title shot is somewhat surprising – considering that he has won just one of his last two fights – he’s still a legitimate threat to Max Holloway’s reign as featherweight champion.
Edgar has a high-level wrestling and pressure game that enables him to be a true nightmare for an opponent. Backed by a fast-pace style of fighting, Edgar moves forward and looks to secure takedowns and establish top position. While his takedown technique is excellent, Edgar is considered most dangerous because of his ability to chain wrestle.
It’s this gritty, determined approach to his grappling that makes Edgar a difficult task on any given night. The best example of what can happen when Edgar utilizes his strengths to full effect came at UFC 211 in 2017. On that night, Edgar shut down fast-rising prospect Yair Rodriguez by landing in top position and mauling him for minutes at a time until the doctor eventually called an end to the fight.
But that’s one type of performance we haven’t seen from Edgar in a very long time. Since then, Edgar was beaten up by Brian Ortega in what turned out to be a boxing match and then he was unable to implement his grappling expertise against Cub Swanson in the next fight. Although he secured the decision win over Swanson, it was the type of victory that doesn’t inspire much confidence, especially when heading into a fight with one of the most versatile strikers in the UFC today.
Max Holloway isn’t just the best fighter at featherweight today, he’s one of the best fighters in mixed martial arts, regardless of division and promotion.
Holloway’s boxing ability is top-level for MMA. His strikes are strong and precise and he disguises his attacks with effective feints and smart footwork. When he does attack, it’s rarely a simple boxing combination. Holloway slides his feet and creates an unsuspecting angle to attack from, often finding a way to land his shots while his opponent’s hips are facing a different direction entirely.
Furthermore, Holloway mixes up his attacks very well, especially in the middle rounds of a fight. The Jose Aldo fights showed much of Holloway’s game. He’s not a slow starter by any means, but Aldo managed to catch him with heavy shots in the opening stages of both fights. In their first title fight, it almost looked like Aldo was going to put Holloway away.
However, that’s what we’ve come to expect from the featherweight champion now. Holloway sets a pace in the opening five minutes and then continually builds on that pace in the following rounds. His output increases as he discovers the best ways to attack his opponent and not take damage in return.
In order to consistently increase his pace and pressure through the five rounds against Edgar, however, he’s going to need to avoid being taken down by the challenger. His 83 percent takedown defense rate does show that he has more than adequate defensive wrestling ability to keep this fight standing. That’s especially the case when comparing that rate to the 33 percent success rate of Edgar’s takedowns. However, remember that Edgar’s takedowns mostly come from chain wrestling techniques that sometimes rely on multiple failed takedown attempts before ultimately securing that desired top position.
A deciding factor in this fight will be Holloway’s ability not just to defend Edgar’s takedowns but punish him for every attempt. Holloway’s reactive striking and work from close range will allow him to work Edgar over and make him reconsider putting his body on the line for a takedown. When that happens, Holloway’s going to start running away with this fight primarily due to his superior striking ability.
While Edgar can win this one, the chances are considerably lower than the implied probability from the odds suggest.
That means that the value for bettors in the UFC 240 main event is all on Holloway. The champion has made a habit of stopping tough fighters in round three, and there’s no reason to believe he won’t do it again this time.
Prediction: Max Holloway to win in round three
Bet on Max Holloway to win inside the distance: -115 at 5Dimes
Cris Cyborg vs. Felicia Spencer
At UFC 240, Cris Cyborg will attempt to get back on track after losing her UFC women’s featherweight title to Amanda Nunes.
In December last year, Nunes moved up to 145 pounds and thrashed Cyborg in just 51 seconds to become a two-division champion. That defeat was Cyborg’s first since 2005.
The 34-year-old is up against Felicia Spencer this weekend, a relatively unproven fighter who holds an undefeated record after seven professional fights. In her last fight, she submitted Megan Anderson via rear-naked choke in the first round.
Cris Cyborg vs. Felicia Spencer Odds
Cris Cyborg vs. Felicia Spencer Breakdown
At the start of this article, we mentioned that we’ll be making a somewhat surprising bet on Cris Cyborg vs. Felicia Spencer. It’s time to find out why.
At first glance, before reviewing past fights, our initial lean was to take Cyborg by first-round KO/TKO. Cyborg’s athleticism, power, and striking ability is far superior to that of Spencer’s and the most likely outcome in this fight is that she just runs straight through Spencer and picks up another fast stoppage win for her resume.
Those thoughts align with the public.
The average MMA fan still considers Cyborg to be almost unstoppable against anyone not named Amanda Nunes and Felicia Spencer – who is a relatively unknown featherweight fighter – has almost no chance of defeating Cyborg.
As a result, the odds here are all over the place. At the +501 underdog odds provided by SportBet, Spencer’s implied probability of winning the fight is 16.6 percent. And that seems about right.
Spencer’s stand-up ability is less-than-average for the UFC women’s featherweight division. Although Spencer has a black belt in taekwondo, her kicks could be confused for being captured in slow-motion and there doesn’t seem to be a whole lot of power in those kicks. Her boxing ability is even worse.
At close range, we see Cyborg unloading heavy flurries of punches that will almost all connect with the head of Spencer and have a damaging effect. Helena Kolesnyk is nowhere near the level of Cyborg but was able to land some decent strikes against Spencer after defending a takedown attempt.
But what makes Spencer dangerous isn’t her stand-up ability, it’s her effectiveness as a grappler. Although she has no wrestling ability and is often unable to secure traditional single-leg and double-leg takedowns, Spencer has great takedown ability from within the clinch and during scrambles, as shown in that fight with Kolesnyk and others in Invicta FC. When she does secure the takedown, as well, she transitions very well and is able to move and hold dominant positions with ease. Spencer has a heavy side control and is a great back-taker who can find submission opportunities.
In Cyborg’s recent fights in the UFC, particularly against Tonya Evinger and Yana Kunitskaya, she proved that she is rather vulnerable to grappling attacks and clinch takedowns.
Evinger was also able to get Cyborg to the mat on multiple occasions throughout the fight but wasn’t able to hold a dominant position.
And after Cyborg missed with a wild flurry of punches in the opening seconds of their fight at UFC 222, Kunitskaya locked onto Cyborg for a couple of minutes and came close to securing dominant positions. That’s Yana Kunitskaya, a fighter with just one submission win on her record. Spencer has won four of her seven fights by submission, suggesting that she’s a proven fight finisher on the mat.
We’re not saying that Spencer’s going to win, or win by submission. We’re merely indicating that the chances of a Spencer submission win are marginally higher than what the public seem to believe.
Right now, the odds of Spencer winning by submission are +935 over at 5Dimes. Those odds represent an implied probability of 9.7 percent. Rather, our estimates would have Spencer winning by submission at somewhere close to 12-15 percent, making this a great value selection for UFC 240.
Spencer needs to forget about trying to stand-up and strike with Cyborg. That’s simply not an option. She needs to capitalize on the moment that Cyborg gets a little too wild and tie Cyborg up in the clinch to pursue a takedown attempt.
Our prediction remains that Cris Cyborg will win this fight inside the distance, but we’re going to be attempting to cash-in on the small chance that Felicia Spencer can shock the world by becoming the first to submit Cris Cyborg.
Prediction: Cris Cyborg to win in round one
Bet on Felicia Spencer to win by submission: +935 at 5Dimes
UFC 240 Best Bets
- Max Holloway to win inside the distance: -115 at 5Dimes
- Felicia Spencer to win by submission: +935 at 5Dimes
Read More:
- Beginner’s Guide to UFC Betting
- What’s different between weight classes in the UFC?
- 5 MMA Betting Experts Talk UFC Gambling Strategies, Advice, and Best Tips
- The 5 Most Shocking Upsets in UFC Title Fight History
Jake is a mixed martial arts reporter from Australia. At WagerBop, he merges his appreciation of combat sports and a strong passion for analytics to uncover opportunities for readers.
Leave a Reply