March Madness Futures Tracker

64 teams have a shot to be crowned king of college hoops. Each team in the field from Duke and Gonzaga down to Abilene Christian and Montana are 6 wins away from cutting down the nets in Minneapolis.

Of course, a few teams are more likely to win than others. Duke, for example, is given the tournament’s best odds while ACU, Bradley, Colgate, Gardner Webb, NC Central, and North Dakota State are tied for the biggest longshots.

Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, the most unlikely winner has been an 8-seed. No team seeded 9th or worse has ever hoisted the championship trophy.

For our purposes today, I will talk only about teams seeded 8th or better in their region. My goal is simple. March is madness, but I am going to help you make sense of it.

Which 1-Seed is the Best Futures Bet?

Duke Blue Devils

Nothing is certain, but I see Duke getting to the Elite Eight no problem. If interested, the current line on Duke winning the East and reaching the Final Four is -160. The Blue Devils are the only team in the tournament with negative odds to win their region. In other words … Duke is good.

No one disagrees that Duke is good, but is -160 too much to lay? Let’s do some quick maths. I say that Duke has a 100% chance of winning their First Round game. The Second Round will be against either VCU or UCF, both of whom Duke can handle. Give the Devils a 90% chance to win that one.

100% times 90% equals 90%. This means Duke has a 90% chance to reach the Sweet 16. Duke will then face either Virginia Tech, Mississippi State, Liberty, or St Louis. I give the Devils a 75% chance of victory, at least, against any of those opponents.

90% times 75% equals 67.5%. This means Duke has a 2 out of 3 chance to reach the Elite Eight. Obviously, these numbers are arbitrary, but I feel they are fairly accurate.

Here is where we determine if there is value in betting Duke to reach the Final Four. At -160, the Devils are not a +EV play unless they have a 61.5% chance of paying out. If we determined Duke has a 67.5% chance to reach the Elite Eight, they would need to be a 91% favorite in that game in order to provide value.

I’m sorry Cameron Crazies, but your team is not a good futures bet.

Gonzaga Bulldogs

At +130 to reach the Final Four, Gonzaga will likely be another popular futures bet. Check out this path: Syracuse, Florida State, Michigan. Assuming Fairleigh Dickinson is no problem for the Bulldogs, these are the top-seeded matchups awaiting Gonzaga. Other possible opponents include Baylor, Marquette, Buffalo, Texas Tech, and Nevada.

Based purely on recent success in the past few years of the tournament and nothing else, I am much more confident that Duke could beat Michigan State in an Elite Eight matchup than I am that Gonzaga could beat Michigan.

Gonzaga is an excellent team – arguably better than Duke. Their tougher road to the Final Four makes their line a little less than ideal.

Virginia Cavaliers

The big dog in the South is UVA. At +125, experts believe the Cavs have a better shot at reaching the Final Four than Gonzaga does. If you put last year’s loss to UMBC behind, you will see that Virginia has a decent path.

Both Ole Miss and Oklahoma have major weaknesses that a well-rounded and battle-tested Virginia squad will expose. Reaching the Sweet 16 should be no problem this year. Possible opponents in that round include 4-seed KSU, 5-seed Wisconsin, 12-seed Oregon, and 13-seed UC Irvine. All 4 are realistic opponents for UVA.

KSU looked unbeatable in Big 12 play before showing their mortality and dropping a few games down the stretch. Wisconsin basketball can be summed up in one word – defense. While not consistently better than UVA, either of these two teams could rise up and knock off the Cavs.

Oregon and UC Irvine are two popular sleeper picks to move into the Sweet 16 given how hot they are entering the tournament. If Virginia can survive the Sweet 16, I think they will like their Elite Eight matchup.

The 2-seed in the South is Tennessee. I’ve picked against the Vols on several occasions over the past couple of months. Sorry Rick Barnes, I’m not a believer.

The South’s 3-seed Purdue does not scare me either. The Boilermakers look good on paper but have not shown me they can beat a team like Virginia. In December, Purdue was dominated by top-10 Michigan. Michigan State repeated the drubbing in January.

Purdue then beat Wisconsin and bested Sparty in the rematch. It appeared as if the Boilermakers had finally put it all together. That confidence was erased when Purdue lost to Minnesota twice in the season’s final 10 days.

I believe Virginia has the best value if you are looking to bet a 1-seed to reach the Final Four. The Cavs went neck-and-neck with Duke twice and bested fellow 1-seed UNC. It’s rare that a 1-seed can be a sleeper, but I feel Virginia is not garnering the respect they deserve.

2-8 Seeds Reaching the Final Four

Only once in history has the Final Four been all 1-seeds. Here is a listing of who I believe the most valuable non-1-seed bets to reach the Final Four are this year.

2-Seed: Kentucky

I’ve been high on the Wildcats all season long. Kentucky is always uber-talented and is capable of hanging with any team in the nation. At +275, Kentucky has the best odds of any 2-seed to reach the Final Four.

3-Seed: Texas Tech

The way experts are talking, the Raiders are a shoo-in to beat Michigan and meet Gonzaga in the Elite Eight. Nothing is ever as easy as the experts make it seem, but Texas Tech definitely possesses the most upside of any 3-seed in the field. At +500 to reach the Final Four, the Raiders deserve a long look.

4-Seed: Kansas

I’ve been high on KU all season, also. The bookies … not so much. Despite being the 4-seed in the Midwest, Kansas is given the 6th-best odds in the region to reach the Final Four. +1000 is an amazing number for a Bill Self team that spent the majority of the season inside the top-10.

5-Seed: None

5-seeds are upset-prone and statistically get the toughest Sweet 16 matchups. I’m not going to put down my money on any 5-seed this year.

6-Seed: Villanova

There is a reason ‘Nova has the 4th-best odds in their region to advance to the Final Four. Jay Wright is fresh off one championship and has his eyes on another. The Wildcats will likely face Purdue in the Second Round which is as appetizing a matchup a 6-seed can hope for. I really really like Villanova at their +800 price tag.

7-Seed: Nevada

The Wolf Pack were riding high until they hit a series of speed bumps late in the season. I had these guys as a 2-seed in my early predictions. Nevada made the Sweet 16 two years ago. Who says they can’t go farther this year? +2000 is a great number for a team that won 14 in a row.

8-Seed: Syracuse

Teams who do unconventional things are scary. Shaka Smart’s VCU had so much success because they pressed like mad. Syracuse is the same. Jim Boeheim’s famous zone defense will take even the best offenses out of rhythm, especially when that offense has just a day or two to prepare.

Last year, 11-seed Syracuse played their way into the Sweet 16. This year’s Orange have the advantage of being an 8-seed. Sure, they’ll have to play Gonzaga in the Second Round, but the path clears up significantly if they can pull off one more upset. +3000 is a good number for a longshot like Syracuse to reach the Final Four.

Happy watching, boppers!