Did Coach K See the Same Thing I Saw?

Dropping 2 games in a 3-game stretch in February is definitely a bad omen, right? It signals to the world that you are hitting the bottom when good teams are peaking, right? It spells disaster come March, right? Wrong!

February is make-or-break time for most college basketball teams. For most, a bad home stretch will leave you on your couch watching the NCAA tournament on your laptop(s).

I say “most”, because some squads are not phased by losing a mid-February game. Who are these teams? Elite ones. That’s who. When they lose in February, we should not sound the alarms. History tells us they are going to be just fine.

Maybe Coach K knew this and was trying to lose on Tuesday …

Losing in February Makes No Difference For Elite Teams … It Might Actually Help

🎥 Coach K on the loss to VT pic.twitter.com/pb1kNrdUKg

— Duke Basketball (@DukeMBB) February 27, 2019

Coming up short in a few February games is irrelevant toward your chances of winning a title, so long as you are a very good team.

Duke is a top-3 team who has just lost 2 out of 3. Tennessee is feeling the exact same pain. These are both legit 1-seed contenders and yet NCAA title futures odds are getting juicier on these two as we speak. Why? Just because they have lost 2 of 3.

Once you see the numbers I am looking at (Coach K is looking at them, too), you will want to place some bets on both Duke and Tennessee while they have value.

Get this … over the past 10 seasons, I have discovered 5 teams with very similar circumstances to this year’s Duke and TENN. They are as follows:

Season	Team	Season Result
2017-18	Villanova	National Champs
2012-13	Kansas	L in Sweet 16
2009-10	West Virginia	L in Final Four
2009-10	Villanova	L in 2nd Round
2009-10	Michigan St	L in Final Four

Each of these teams was considered elite and then lost 2 games in a 3-game stretch in February. Back in February of 2010, WVU, NOVA, and MSU were all top-10 teams – each being top-5 at some point during the year.

In February 2013, Kansas was the #1 overall seed before dropping a couple contests. Of course, we all remember how dominant NOVA was last year. Did you remember that they lost 2 out of 3 in late-February, though?

Here is Why This All Matters

Here is why I believe that losing a couple times in February might actually help your Final Four and NCAA championship chances.

In the past 10 seasons, 5 teams who were legit 1-seed candidates lost 2 of 3 in February. It’s an extremely small sample size, I know, but it’s all I have to work with. Bear with me.

Of these 5, 1 went on to win the national championship while 3 in total made the Final Four the year of their February mishaps. That means 20% have won it all while 60% have made it to the final weekend.

Let’s compare these numbers to how well all 1-seeds have fared over the past 10 seasons. There are, obviously, 40 of them in this span. 7 have won it all, which comes out to a 17.5% win rate. Of the 40, only 14 have made it to the Final Four. This is a success rate of just 35%.

Once again, I know it’s a small sample size, but I like where this is going. File this one away under “potential long-term betting system”.

I highly doubt Coach K wanted to lose to VT on Tuesday. One thing is certain, however. The futures odds on both Duke and TENN have never been loftier. This is the best time to bet them!

Here’s a Way to Make Money This Week

Don’t feel like waiting around for a Duke or Tennessee futures bet to pay off? Simply bet the Duke spread and bet the TENN spread on their next game. That’s it.

Those 5 elite teams who had the February blues wound up playing 7 post-losing-2-of-3 games. In those 7 games, our teams in question won ATS 5 times. This is good enough for me!

I’m all in on Tennessee ATS vs Ole Miss on Wednesday. I also got Duke ATS against the U on Saturday.

Later, boppers!