In my first installment of this series, I explored the lucrative opportunities the Jacksonville Dolphins presented along with the reasons why most bettors will never bother to take that plunge.
Today I am exploring the Roadrunners from the University of Texas at San Antonio. UTSA competes in Conference USA and is currently tearing up the competition. UTSA is in second place with a 9-3 conference record. They are hot, having won 3 straight.
Here is a glance at the Roadrunner’s conference results through February 11th.
| Opponent | UTSA Line | Total | Result | ATS Result | O/U Result |
| vs UTEP | -5.5 | 142 | W 75-60 | W | U |
| @ UTEP | +1.5 | 141 | W 67-63 | W | U |
| vs Rice | -7.5 | 154 | W 95-79 | W | O |
| vs N Texas | +2 | 141.5 | W 76-74 | W | O |
| @ Mid Tenn | -4 | 143.5 | L 89-86 | L | O |
| @ UAB | +4.5 | 143.5 | L 83-73 | L | O |
| vs Charlotte | -8 | 135.5 | W 88-43 | W | U |
| vs Old Dom | +2 | 140 | W 74-73 | W | O |
| @ W Kentucky | +6 | 145.5 | L 96-88 | L | O |
| @ Marshall | +5.5 | 169 | W 116-106 | W | O |
| vs FL INT | -7.5 | 173.5 | W 100-67 | W | U |
| vs FL ATL | -7.5 | 152 | W 86-74 | W | O |
| Total | -1.5 | 148.4 | 9-3 with avg 85-76 | 9-3 | 8O/4U |
A winning season – very profitable for bettors, too! I could just say “bet the UTSA spread,” but that would not be very informative of me. There is a much stronger underlying trend surrounding UTSA basketball that does not immediately meet the eye.
Bet UTSA at Home – Fade Roadrunners on the Road
That’s right, the Roadrunners defend the Convocation Center like nobody’s business. UTSA has not dropped a CUSA matchup at home since January 13, 2018 … over a full year ago!
In conference play this season, UTSA is a perfect 7-0 SU at home AND 7-0 ATS. On the road, just a 2-3 record for each. Why the discrepancy? It’s certainly not the offense’s fault.
UTSA has a very consistent and high-scoring offense. Led by a stud pair of sophomore guards Jhivvan Jackson and Keaton Wallace, the Roadrunners have averaged 85.3 points per game against CUSA opponents.
UTSA’s offense travels well, too. The Roadrunners are among the nation’s best in points per game in road conference bouts. Check out these home/road splits for UTSA in CUSA play.
| Avg Line | Total | PPG Scored | PPG Allowed | SU Record | ATS Record | O/U Record | |
| Home | -4.6 | 148.4 | 84.9 | 67.1 | 7-0 | 7-0 | 4O/3U |
| Away | +2.7 | 148.5 | 86.0 | 87.4 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 4O/1U |
| Total | -1.5 | 148.4 | 85.3 | 75.6 | 9-3 | 9-3 | 8O/4U |
The Roadrunners can score anywhere consistently and the Vegas totals reflect that. It is the defensive side of the ball that sets UTSA apart. At home, the D is a blanket, smothering opponents and allowing fewer than 70 points per game. The floodgates open as soon as long bus rides and hostile crowds are involved.
Verdict
UTSA has scored 100 points in 2 of their previous 3 matchups. I am not concerned about their offense. It is the Roadrunner defense that presents lucrative betting opportunities.
The over hits extremely often in UTSA road games because their defense becomes a revolving door. It seems the oddsmakers have yet to catch on to this nuance. As long as the road struggles continue, the over will be a valuable bet when the Roadrunners leave the friendly confines of the Convocation Center.
I am going to start backing UTSA either SU or ATS (or both) until the Roadrunners give me a reason to think otherwise. I must always be careful to check the reasonableness of the Vegas line, however. After I gain an idea of what a good line would be, I will compare this to the released line and bet accordingly.
I’m all about striking while the iron is hot here, but I am cognisant about playing right into Vegas’ hands by laying extreme odds or chasing a lofty point spread. If Vegas overcompensates the line, I am not betting UTSA.
Until that shift happens, I’ll cash in. See you on top!
Kreighton loves sports, math, writing, and winning — he combines all of them as a writer for WagerBop. His favorite sports to review are MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAAF, and NCAABB.
Leave a Reply