UFC Fight Night 144 Betting Guide: Raphael Assuncao vs. Marlon Moraes

The UFC returns to ESPN+ this weekend with a brilliant fight card scheduled for the fans in Fortaleza, Brazil.

UFC Fight Night 144 is without the controversy of the average UFC event these days, and that’s enough reason for it to be flying completely under the radar. Throw in the fact mixed martial arts fans are more concerned with the suspensions handed down to Khabib Nurmagomedov and Conor McGregor, and you have the recipe for an underrated night of fights.

But that doesn’t mean there’s no value for bettors.

In fact, it typically means the opposite.

We dive into a couple of the most anticipated fights at UFC Fight Night 144 to bring you our analysis and recommended bets.

UFC Fight Night 144 – Saturday, Feb. 2

Main Card (8:00 pm ET)

• Raphael Assuncao vs. Marlon Moraes
• Jose Aldo vs. Renato Moicano
• Demian Maia vs. Lyman Good
• Charles Oliveira vs. David Teymur
• Johnny Walker vs. Justin Ledet
• Livinha Souza vs. Sarah Frota

Preliminary Card (4:30 pm ET)

• Markus Perez vs. Anthony Hernandez
• Mara Romero Borella vs. Taila Santos
• Thiago Alves vs. Max Griffin
• Junior Albini vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik
• Ricardo Ramos vs. Said Nurmagomedov
• Rogerio Bontorin vs. Magomed Bibulatov
• Geraldo de Freitas vs. Felipe Colares

Raphael Assuncao vs. Marlon Moraes

The most highly anticipated fight at UFC Fight Night 144 could also be one of the best matchups in recent memory.

The always underrated Raphael Assuncao is one win away from what has proved to be an elusive title shot in the 135-pound division. Despite being one of the most consistent performers at bantamweight, Assuncao has yet to compete in a UFC championship bout. Fans typically chalk that one up to Assuncao’s slow, plodding counter-striking style of fighting as well as an uninteresting personality that does no favors to the UFC and Dana White. That could be why the UFC has asked him to go back and fight a man he defeated only recently.

Assuncao will be facing Marlon Moraes for the second time in less than two years. It was Assuncao who first welcomed Moraes – a former World Series of Fighting champion – to the UFC in June 2017 at UFC 212. On that day, Assuncao outworked Moraes over three rounds to earn a very tight split decision victory.

Assuncao has cemented himself as a top contender in the division by defeating Matthew Lopez and Rob Font since then. Moraes has worked his way to the top, as well, after back-to-back knockout wins against highly-skilled opposition in Jimmie Rivera and Aljamain Sterling.

Raphael Assuncao vs. Marlon Moraes Odds

Although victorious the first time around, you can get + odds on Raphael Assuncao in the rematch.

While that may seem surprising, Assuncao’s odds are actually shorter than what they were before the first fight. Assuncao was +220 at most bookmakers back in 2017 and now sits at +165 for the fourth round. Clearly, time has favored Awssuncao in some form or another.

In the first fight, it was Assuncao who had a better start. He tagged Moraes with powerful right-hand punches on multiple occasions to win the round, despite a relatively similar strike tally of 13 strikes landed to 14 by Moraes.

By the second round, Moraes showed why he was the favorite coming in and started to control more aspects of the contest. In particular, he was landing heavy punches of his own and seemingly did enough to win a close round.

The third round was by far the most competitive, despite an early advantage to Assuncao who knocked down Moraes with a strike. After that moment, Moraes became increasingly aware of the need to win this fight on the scorecards and lifted his tempo significantly. Whereas he landed 14 and 11 strikes in the first two rounds respectively, he lifted his output to 19 strikes landed by the end, while also improving his significant strike accuracy to 33 percent after registering accuracy of 27 percent in the earlier rounds.

Assuncao’s early knockdown was enough to win the round, however, as he too lifted his output and accuracy in the final round. The biggest takeaway from those final five minutes was that Moraes seemingly found his groove and realized his pathway to victory, although it was much too late.

Why we’re betting on a stoppage in this main event

Yes, it’s likely that Assuncao and Moraes fight to a decision in Brazil, but it’s not as probable as the odds reflect.

Here’s why.

As noted, the pace picked up significantly in the third and final round as each of these two fighters began to understand the movements and patterns of their opponent. Moraes started to take more risks as a result of falling behind on the scorecards. And before then, Assuncao was landing with punches that were clean enough to have a major impact. As Moraes becomes increasingly reckless, the probability of a finish increases.

Add to this the simple fact that Assuncao has never fought five rounds – and looked to be fatiguing by the end of the third round in 2017 – there’s enough reason to believe Moraes could secure a stoppage finish in the fourth or fifth round.

At odds of +165 at SportBet, we’re going to take a stab at Assuncao vs. Moraes to last under 4.5 rounds.

Bet on Total Rounds – Under 4.5: +165 at SportBet

Read more: Beginners Guide to Betting on MMA

Demian Maia vs. Lyman Good

Demian Maia is on a three-fight losing skid and fans around the world are subscribing to one of two hot takes:

1. Demian Maia has lost it; he’s not the same threat he once was
2. Demian Maia’s still dangerous, he’s just had unfavorable matchups

We subscribe to the second of these two beliefs, but there’s no reason why you can’t subscribe to both.

Regardless, we’ll soon find out which of these statements holds true when he meets Lyman Good at UFC Fight Night 144 this weekend.

Good is now 2-1 in the UFC after joining the promotion in July 2015. Most recently, he scored an impressive first-round victory against Ben Saunders at UFC 230. He’s a powerful athlete with devastating striking ability and will likely cause a world of trouble for Maia as long as this one stays standing.

Maia’s going to need to take this one to the mat, but that’s no surprise.

Demian Maia vs. Lyman Good Odds

To say that Maia is outstanding at Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu is an understatement. A dangerous grappler with the arguably the best rear-naked choke finish in the game today, Maia is someone you don’t want on your back.

But the problem for the Brazilian recently has been getting people to a position in which he can implement his submission abilities.

He can’t strangle an opponent who is standing across from him, and that’s ultimately been the trouble.

Through 2014-2017, Maia racked up seven consecutive victories to become one of the most feared competitors in the welterweight division. He rose to top contender status and then earned a shot at the champion, Tyron Woodley. But that fight is undoubtedly one that Maia wants to forget. After attempting 21 takedowns through five rounds of action, Maia succeeded on no attempt. Woodley defended 100% of Maia’s takedowns and kept the fight standing, where he picked apart the grappler.

The recipe for success against Maia was never unknown, it’s just that no one had been able to make it look as easy as Woodley did.

After falling short against the champion, Maia was then matched with two more elite wrestlers in Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington, both of whom defended every of Maia’s takedowns, as well. Sure, Maia’s submissions are world-class but if he can’t take an opponent down to the mat, he’s without the chance to finish them.

All up, Maia has failed on his each of his last 49 takedown attempts.

But it’s worth remembering the supreme takedown defense of the individuals he was standing across from:

• Woodley has 94% career takedown defense
• Usman has 100% career takedown defense
• Covington has 78% career takedown defense

Maia’s 25% takedown accuracy was never going to cut it against these guys.

Lyman Good has allowed only the one takedown to an opponent in the UFC so far in three fights, and that was to Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. Dos Santos attempted seven takedowns in that fight and hit just one, showing that Good’s takedown defense is decent enough.

Good’s also never lost by submission.

But there’s a first for everything.

Maia’s takedown ability is incredibly underrated. It’s not like he’s shooting explosive double-leg takedown attempts from far away, he instead feints to draw out a punch from his opponent before shooting underneath to gain control of a single-leg. From there, it’s all chain wrestling to drag his opponent to the ground and then work to half guard. Once Maia secures half guard – or any type of guard – he’s likely to slice through Good’s defenses and find a submission.

And it’s more likely to happen in the first round when bodies are dry and Maia has more energy. The Brazilian will waste no time in trying to get this one to the floor.

You can grab generous +350 odds on Maia to win in the first round over at Bet365 and that’s precisely what we’re playing this weekend.

Bet on Demian Maia to win in round one: +350 at Bet365

Best Bets for UFC Fight Night 144

We’re taking two underdog bets at UFC Fight Night 144 this weekend in Brazil.

• Assuncao vs. Moraes, total rounds – under 4.5: +165 at SportBet
• Demian Maia to win in round one: +350 at Bet365

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Read More:

• Beginner’s Guide to UFC Betting
• What’s different between weight classes in the UFC?
• 5 MMA Betting Experts Talk UFC Gambling Strategies, Advice, and Best Tips