The entertainment is heating up in Roger Goodell’s kingdom. We have playoff races in 4 of the 8 divisions while all others are battling for seeding or draft order. It is the best time of the year for NFL fans.
I will let you in on a little secret: sports bettors are made or broke depending on how they finish a season, not how they start it.
If you have perfect discipline this may not describe you, but here is how most of us handle the end of a season:
Those who have won a fair amount by this point will reason that they can afford to take a few more risks so they increase their bet size. A good finish to the season will propel them to new heights but a cold stretch at the end will eat up all of their profits.
Those who are down through 13 weeks are likely feeling the pressure to get back in the black so they also increase their bet size. A few good weeks of large bets can make up for a whole season of misfortune. A bad finish will bankrupt these bettors, however.
As I said, not everyone operates this way, but many do. It’s not how you start in this business. It’s truly how you finish.
I’m pulling out the big guns today. I’ll be writing about a very simple yet very profitable system that I first used in 2017 to supplement my humble salary. Boy did it work!
Too bad I didn’t start betting it sooner because this particular system has been absolutely dynamite since 2014 but still very profitable dating all the way back to 2008. Ready for me to unveil it? Drumroll please … bet unders in the final 4 weeks of the NFL season.
Don’t believe me? Here is a look at the numbers on overs/unders in the final 4 weeks of each season since 2008.
| Year | Over % | Over ROI | Under % | Under ROI |
| 2017 | 35.9% | -31.4% | 64.1% | 22.3% |
| 2016 | 54.7% | 4.4% | 45.3% | -13.5% |
| 2015 | 39.7% | -24.2% | 60.3% | 15.2% |
| 2014 | 33.3% | -36.4% | 66.7% | 27.3% |
| 2013 | 50.0% | -4.5% | 50.0% | -4.5% |
| 2012 | 47.6% | -9.1% | 52.4% | 0.0% |
| 2011 | 52.4% | 0.0% | 47.6% | -9.1% |
| 2010 | 52.4% | 0.0% | 47.6% | -9.1% |
| 2009 | 46.0% | -12.1% | 54.0% | 3.0% |
| 2008 | 41.9% | -19.9% | 58.1% | 10.9% |
| Total | 45.4% | -13.3% | 54.6% | 4.2% |
Is This System Legit?
If you can derive some plausible reason that a system works, it is legit in my book. Simpler is generally better when it comes to systems, and this one is as simple as it gets.
I believe unders hit a lot late in the season because teams are trying out plenty of new players. Teams out of playoff contention are playing their young, unproven talent to get them experience. Teams that have already clinched normally rest key players for a game or two and take their foot off the gas pedal offensively.
It’s the best time of the NFL season! Unders hit over 64% of the time from this point on last year. I’ll be banking on a repeat in 2018!
Kreighton loves sports, math, writing, and winning — he combines all of them as a writer for WagerBop. His favorite sports to review are MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAAF, and NCAABB.
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