Premier League Soccer: FanDuel Odds, Over/Under Lines, and Recommended Picks This Weekend

There will be plenty of overloaded schedule-dates and tight odds to wager on during the Premier League’s upcoming rounds. But the only EPL kickoff this Friday comes with a (-550) money line for Arsenal to defeat Southampton. It’s a whopping favorite’s money-line…but then again, it’s only 1-to-5.

Such an offering is not exactly the thinnest betting line ever seen for a league-leading aristocrat taking on a relegation candidate like Southampton in 2022-23, though perhaps it’s more evident than ever to speculators that the pressure on Arsenal is nearing its moment to bubble up in a bad way.

Selected English Premier League Match Betting Odds and Picks

Arsenal F.C. vs Southampton F.C. (Fri, April 21st)

If the first dozen minutes of Arsenal’s previous game had accurately forecasted its outcome, then Matchweek 32’s preparations might have a different vibe at Emirates Stadium grounds. As the cliché goes, Sunday’s match might have felt too easy against visiting West Ham, especially after midfielder Martin Ødegaard followed up on Gabriel Jesus’ early goal to give Arsenal a 2-0 advantage with over an hour of clock remaining. Gunners managed only a handful of shot-attempts and corners the rest of the way, while Hammers’ counter-attack produced 2 mid-game tallies, taking 2 critical points from Arsenal as Manchester City’s form continues to peak.

Arsenal is going into Friday’s bout against an equally desperate opponent, with contradictory aims plaguing Mikel Arteta’s training plans. On one hand, Gunners have no more room for error against vulnerable Premier League clubs of any sort down the stretch in 2023, given that Man City’s match-in-hand and decisive uptick in attacking makes Gunners’ “4-point” table lead extremely dodgy. On the other, even a perfect record outside of April 26th’s visit to Man City of Manchester Stadium could be insufficient to produce a 1st-place finish in May, should Gunners fall to Sky Blues and drop 3 points once more.

There is a bit of a disagreement on what kind of fixture Arsenal-Southampton will shape up to be and it shows at the sportsbook, as O/U payout odds have become markedly slanted toward “Over” outcomes, with 1-to-2 odds on standard high-side picks against a line of O/U (2.5) total goals.

However, the FanDuel Sportsbook proposition odds on “Both Teams To Score” carry a generous (+110) money-line market on the “Yes” answer. Surely, punters anticipating 4+ goals in the bout are not expecting the favorite to necessarily score all of them? In a nervy, anxious match between 2 teams that absolutely must win, it may be wise to expect blunders and accidents impacting plays within both boxes. Friday’s chaos may only be exacerbated by Southampton’s pressing panache.

WagerBop’s Pick: Yes (“Both Teams To Score” Prop Bet) (+110)

Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest (Sat, April 22nd)

Premiership odds are blatantly ignoring the points table these days, and this weekend’s offerings on Premier League legacy teams are no exception. Reds of Liverpool are drawing 1-to-5 money-line odds to vanquish Tricky Trees of Nottingham Forest, a line that is comparable to Arsenal’s odds to beat Southampton on Friday.

But this Saturday’s bout is not a meeting of “top vs bottom” like Gunners vs Saints. In fact, Reds are approaching must-win scenarios to maintain their Champions League qualification status after a lousy campaign, while Tricky Trees have a chance to avoid relegation with a record that is noble.

Any kind of optimistic “back to business” vibe around the Liverpool betting trend is not reflected by the club’s recent English Premier League record, which includes zero 3-point victories since Reds crushed Red Devils of Manchester United in a landmark 7-0 result. Reds manager Jürgen Klopp must be pleased to have avoided March’s “purge” of half of a dozen name-brand coaches in the greatest one-week display of sacking since the 1985 Chicago Bears.

Speaking to the media about Reds’ rebuilding plans seems to delight Klopp, a sign that UEFA qualification may not be in the cards, even from an optimistic home-grounds POV. Like any practical skipper would be in a dull year, Klopp is happy to lower expectations.

All the same, if Liverpool plans to write off 2023 as an exercise in preparation, that could leave the club mired in poor timing with a revenge rematch slated for Saturday. Nottingham was responsible for what was probably Liverpool’s most embarrassing loss of 2022’s calendar year, beating the squad 1-0 behind Taiwo Awoniyi’s goal early in the 2nd half at City Ground. Perhaps Klopp believes that there’s no point trying to provoke his team into righting the wrongful result when they ought to be plenty motivated on their own to do so. That being well and good, there’s also no doubting Tricky Trees’ desire to maintain its Cinderella top-tier status and get above 18th place on the Premier League table.

WagerBop’s Pick: Draw (+550)

Newcastle United vs Tottenham Hotspur (Sun, April 23rd)

Even the biggest Premiership betting trends, stubborn trends that can make the UK’s betting odds defy The Beautiful Game’s scores and tables, eventually reach a point where the public says, “okay, enough of that.” Experts can protest that Manchester City’s lineup is superior to Arsenal’s, for example, but that didn’t keep users from dismissing Man City and tacking toward Arsenal once enough of the schedule had been completed with Gunners still leading the pack.

It is difficult to say what Lilywhites of Tottenham are feeling after losing to Bournemouth by a 3-2 score, just when Spurs was on the precipice of vaulting into the top-4 and automatic UEFA Champions League qualification once again. But the gambling lines in London, Las Vegas, and New York are even more ominous, since the Cherries score appears to be that much-awaited straw to break the camel’s back when it comes to the betting odds on Lilywhites. Spurs are this Sunday’s (+330) road underdog at Newcastle United (-125) in what would have been last year an almost unfathomable betting line.

Spurs was handed a bitter 2-1 loss to Newcastle United despite Harry Kane’s opening-half goal back in October, and it’s hard to question Newcastle’s newly-elite form after months of the upstart squad’s impressive Premier League wins since that day. Tottenham is mired in discontent and unkind emotions, with Lilywhites “supporters” booing defender Davinson Sanchez after what spectators thought of as a howler goal-against on the 2nd tally by Cherries.

Aside from of practical reality, there will always be a subset of English Premier League gamers who think that a beautiful strike from Harry Kane can solve every problem that needs solving, and sometimes that’s not an incorrect assertion. Kane will likely be a “minus” odds pick to score in the crucial match against Newcastle, for which Spurs draw a (+1) and (-105) line on the spread.

Basic odds of (-110) on both sides of Over/Under total goals appear a tad pessimistic of scoring on Sunday, as Tottenham cannot afford to play without forward numbers, and may be as likely to be defeated by a lopsided score as to pull together and triumph.

WagerBop’s Pick: Over (2.5) (+110)

AFC Bournemouth vs West Ham United (Sun, April 23rd)

It is feasible that the team that upset Tottenham should have fairly good betting action, right? As of now, the odds are indeed looking pretty good – except for one admonition.

AFC Bournemouth speculators are finally willing to fork over real cash for a risky betting line, holding Cherries at a stout 2-to-1 money-line odds to beat West Ham (+145) on Sunday. Things are finally starting to take an upward turn for Cherries, who have won 2 bouts in a row, and who have since Boxing Day conquered Leicester City, Fulham, Wolves, and nearly Arsenal and Newcastle United.

The young hero who scored to beat Spurs is Dango Ouattara, but it’s Cherries keeper Neto whose Daily Fantasy soccer prices will be the most expensive until another Nottingham striker steps up again. West Ham is coming off a remarkable result of its own against Arsenal, which is the catch that is keeping Cherries bets back a bit.

There’s only so much room for AFC Bournemouth’s betting odds to shrink given the rare hype for both clubs at this moment. The best hope to invest in a promising betting line on Cherries-Hammers could come if the sudden excitement around each team helps to move FanDuel’s (-136) odds on Under (2.5) total goals closer to straight 1-to-1 risk and reward as the week goes forward. Bookmakers could additionally regret offering short proposition odds on Ouattara and others to score goals in the bout while giving-away big rewards to users taking the opposing sides of those prop markets.

That’s not to say that West Ham and Bournemouth’s attacks aren’t EPL quality in a season in which both clubs could very well avoid relegation. But points have been at such a premium for both squads that the maiden team to lead 1-0 could be likely to try drawing numbers back and stalemating the play.

WagerBop’s Pick: Under (2.5) (-136)