XFL Week 10: Betting Odds and Predictions on Spring Football’s Regular Season Finale

Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson dodged a brutal clothesline from Dame Fortune prior to this weekend’s XFL season finale. With only 4 playoff spots available in an 8-team league, it would have been clockwork-easy for completely unmotivated teams to arrive in Week 10, with NFL clubs having made their scouting decisions on each roster already, and playoff elimination (or 100% clinched seeds) leading to listless and ignored pigskin.

There are, in fact, clinched seeds and eliminated teams toiling for the XFL in Week 10. But just as luck (or an interfering ring-manager) would have it, the league has avoided any completely meaningless scrums on the ledger.

Every game of Week 10 will count for something. Hopefully, it will count for some betting wins too, but only if gamers understand which teams aren’t poised to give their best.

XFL Week 10 Opponents, Betting Lines, and Picks

Orlando Guardians at St. Louis Battlehawks (Saturday, April 22)

In Week 9, St. Louis suffered the worst loss of its short XFL history. The Battlehawks fell woefully short in the 2nd half and lost to the division-rival Seattle Sea Dragons 30-12. What makes the loss especially galling is that Seattle is in a tight race with St. Louis for one of 2 remaining playoff seeds in 2023. Gamers who have watched STL play terrific 4th quarters all year were sorely let down by last week’s turnovers and blunders.

The Battlehawks, on the bright side, couldn’t ask for an easier “must-win” game to close out the regular season. QB A.J. McCarron could be healthier this week against the Orlando Guardians, a brand that had strangely reverted-to-form at 1-8 after knocking-off DC in mid-year. Battlehawks point spread picks are going on lines of (-8) for St Louis.

The Guardians have their own sunny spot in talented TE Cody Latimer, who has helped keep the Florida club relevant while threatening to lead the XFL in yards and Daily Fantasy receiving points after 10 games played. Latimer is sure to receive an invitation to NFL training camp this year and could become the first TE/HB to threaten league records as a receiver since Dick “Night Train” Lane in the 1950s.

Of course, when you’re playing for a brand that’s finishing its 2nd full season, it helps in the quest to be a league record-holder.

WagerBop’s Pick: Battlehawks ATS (-8) 

D.C. Defenders at San Antonio Brahmas (Saturday, April 22)

The next kickoff on Saturday is the first of 2 “academic” games for contenders in the XFL this weekend.

D.C. has already qualified to host a playoff semifinal game in Week 11 and likes to play musical chairs in the offensive backfield anyway, helping lend an “NFL preseason” quality to the betting odds for a game this weekend that not many people will watch.

The D.C. Defenders are league-leading in the standings, but only a (-3) field goal favorite on FanDuel’s point spread against San Antonio, which did manage to trip Orlando 25-23 in Week 9. That is in spite of D.C.’s status as an odds-on (+115) favorite to be the XFL’s championship game winners.

Having split with Arlington in back-to-back midseason games, San Antonio still has an outside chance to reach the postseason at 4-6 if the equally slow-paced Renegades lose to Houston this Sunday. The only trouble is that Houston, Arlington’s opponent in Week 10, has no more motivation to prevail than D.C.

WagerBop’s Pick: Under (41.5) 

Houston Roughnecks at Arlington Renegades (Sunday, April 23)

The gambling odds for Brahmas-Defenders feel slightly like NFL preseason lines, but Houston and Arlington’s markets have “11 PM on a Friday in August” stamped all over them. Houston is FanDuel’s (-105) and (+1) underdog against Arlington, a team that’s been so challenged offensively that the club’s swift secondary often gives the Renegades better chances to break for a TD in the open field.

FanDuel Sportsbook’s (42.5) point Over/Under total on Sunday’s early XFL kickoff shows that bookmakers anticipate Arlington’s attack to have a feast-or-famine day in desperation to win and decidedly is not “NFL preseason” style. We’re still not convinced that it’s a low-enough number under the circumstances.

Like San Antonio, Arlington, could qualify for the XFL playoffs with a losing 4-6 record due to the top-heavy characteristic of the spring league’s 8-team field. We will find out how many starters (and backups) the Renegades have to contend with out of Houston’s coasting club.

WagerBop’s Pick: Under (42.5) 

Vegas Vipers at Seattle Sea Dragons (Sunday, April 23)

Last weekend, the Seattle Sea Dragons kicked a seemingly pointless FG to go ahead 30-12 with time running out in St. Louis. The gambit prompted Gateway City fans to rain boos down on the victorious visitors, but they ought to read the XFL rulebook more closely before accusing a North Division rival of a bad sportsmanship moment.

The Sea Dragons were simply maximizing their point total, a technicality that could come into play far beyond the Over/Under betting board this week. 6-3 Seattle and St. Louis are locked into such a tight battle for a playoff berth that the tiebreaker could come down to a tied team’s points-for and points-against margin after Week 10. If anything could prevent the XFL’s eliminated or locked-in lineups from creating an “exhibition game” vibe this weekend, a battle of STL and Seattle’s offenses to run up the bigger blow-out would be fitting.

Vegas (+8.5) may be the most “overrated” 8-point underdog of spring, given the 1-7 team’s matchup against hungry Seattle this Sunday. A cautious, conservative unit like the Arlington Renegades could potentially have a bad blocking-and-tackling day and blow its postseason chances against the Vegas Vipers, similar to how D.C.’s bid for a perfect campaign went up in smoke vs Orlando. But the Sea Dragons can utilize so many dangerous, prolific pass-catchers around quarterback Ben DiNucci that it will be easier for Seattle to turn the lopsided match this Sunday into a track meet than it will be for St. Louis to hit 40+ vs Orlando on Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook is offering an O/U (47.5) betting line in expectation of a Sea Dragons rout.

WagerBop’s Pick: Sea Dragons ATS (-8.5)