March Madness 2023 – West Region Picks and Odds

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds to Win the West Region

Below are the March Madness futures odds given to each team in the West Region to represent the region in the Final Four.

UCLA (+330)

Kansas (+330)

Gonzaga (+360)

UConn (+500)

TCU (+850)

Saint Mary’s (+1200)

Arkansas (+2000)

Illinois (+3000)

Northwestern (+4000)

Boise State (+5000)

VCU (+6000)

Arizona State (+7500)

Iona (+12000)

Grand Canyon (+13000)

UNC Asheville (+25000)

Howard (+25000)

Meet the 16 Teams in the West Region

#1 Kansas

Conference: Big 12

NET Rank: #9

Overall (Conf): 27-7 (13-5)

Auto/At-Large: At-Large

Last Appearance: 2022 (Champs)

Last Championship: 2022

The Jayhawks may be #9 in the NET, but they’re #4 in the final AP Poll. Bill Self has been coaching at KU since 2003, but may miss the beginning of the tournament as he’s been dealing with some heart issues over the last week or so. Kansas came back on North Carolina in the second half of last season’s National Championship Game for their first title since 2008.

#2 UCLA

Conference: Pac-12

NET Rank: #3

Overall (Conf): 29-5 (18-2)

Auto/At-Large: At-Large

Last Appearance: 2022 (Sweet 16)

Last Championship: 1995

The NCAA’s all-time leader in championships finished 7th in the final AP Poll. Seniors Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Tyger Campbell pace the team offensively with the latter collecting a team-high 4.7 assists per game.

#3 Gonzaga

Conference: West Coast

NET Rank: #6

Overall (Conf): 28-5 (14-2)

Auto/At-Large: Automatic

Last Appearance: 2022 (Sweet 16)

Last Championship: None

Save for the COVID season, the Zags have appeared in the NCAA tournament each year since 1999. Gonzaga has reached 2 National Championship games in that span but still have no trophy to display in their case in Spokane, Washington.

#4 UConn

Conference: Big East

NET Rank: #8

Overall (Conf): 24-8 (13-7)

Auto/At-Large: At-Large

Last Appearance: 2022 (1st Rd)

Last Championship: 2014

One of the winningest programs of the 21st century – the Huskies won more games this year (24) than they have since 2015-16. 13 conference wins in the Big East is the most since 2008-09 for the Huskies. The Huskies have not made it out of the 1st Round of the tournament since 2016.

#5 Saint Mary’s

Conference: West Coast

NET Rank: #11

Overall (Conf): 26-7 (14-2)

Auto/At-Large: At-Large

Last Appearance: 2022 (2nd Rd)

Last Championship: None

Known best around the country as the 2nd-best team in the WCC, Saint Mary’s has been led by Head Coach Randy Bennett since the 2001-02 season. 2022-23 is the program’s 20th-straight winning year and 26 wins is the Gaels’ most since 2017-18.

#6 TCU

Conference: Big 12

NET Rank: #28

Overall (Conf): 21-12 (9-9)

Auto/At-Large: At-Large

Last Appearance: 2022 (2nd Rd)

Last Championship: None

The Horned Frogs reached the championship game in college football last year and now turn their attention to the NCAA tournament – a bracket in which TCU hasn’t advanced past the 2nd round in 55 years. 2022-23 is the Horned Frogs 2nd-straight 21-win season, but TCU has never had a winning season in Big 12 play.

#7 Northwestern

Conference: Big Ten

NET Rank: #41

Overall (Conf): 21-11 (12-8)

Auto/At-Large: At-Large

Last Appearance: 2017 (2nd Rd)

Last Championship: None

The Wildcats notched their first winning season in Big Ten play since 2016-17 this year – getting themselves ranked as high as #21 in the AP Polls. Northwestern finished 3rd in the Big Ten standings this year and is 1 of 8 Big Ten teams to go dancing this season.

#8 Arkansas

Conference: SEC

NET Rank: #21

Overall (Conf): 20-13 (8-10)

Auto/At-Large: At-Large

Last Appearance: 2022 (Elite 8)

Last Championship: 1994

The Razorbacks are in the NCAA tournament again for the 3rd season in a row after making it as far as the Elite 8 in back-to-back seasons. Arkansas was seeded 3 and 4 respectively in those years and is 8th in 2022-23.

#9 Illinois

Conference: Big Ten

NET Rank: #34

Overall (Conf): 20-12 (11-9)

Auto/At-Large: At-Large

Last Appearance: 2022 (2nd Rd)

Last Championship: None

The Illini capped off their 4th-straight winning season in 2022-23 despite dropping each of their last 2 games. Big wins for Illinois this year are over Texas (2-seed), UCLA (2-seed), Northwestern (7-seed), and Michigan State (7-seed).

#10 Boise State

Conference: Mountain West

NET Rank: #29

Overall (Conf): 24-9 (13-5)

Auto/At-Large: At-Large

Last Appearance: 2022 (1st Rd)

Last Championship: None

The Broncos are known for their stout defense and have used it to win 24 games this season. 2023 is Boise’s 9th ever trip to the dance, but they’re still searching for their first tournament win in school history. 10th is the 2nd-highest seeding for Boise State all-time.

#11 Arizona State

Conference: Pac-12

NET Rank: #66

Overall (Conf): 22-12 (11-9)

Auto/At-Large: At-Large

Last Appearance: 2019 (1st Rd)

Last Championship: None

The Sun Devils barely snuck into the field but proved emphatically they belonged with a 98-73 drubbing of Nevada in the First Four Wednesday night. 22 wins is the most for an Arizona State team since 2018-19 and is the team’s 2nd-best season ever under the guidance of Head Coach Bobby Hurley.

#12 VCU

Conference: Atlantic 10

NET Rank: #53

Overall (Conf): 27-7 (15-3)

Auto/At-Large: Automatic

Last Appearance: 2021 (1st Rd)

Last Championship: None

27 wins for the Rams is the most in a season since they won 29 in the 2011-12 as a member of the Colonial. This was back during VCU’s heyday – fresh off the school’s first Final Four appearance. The Rams haven’t made much noise in March lately – failing to get out of the first round since 2016.

#13 Iona

Conference: Metro Atlantic

NET Rank: #58

Overall (Conf): 27-7 (17-3)

Auto/At-Large: Automatic

Last Appearance: 2021 (1st Rd)

Last Championship: None

The last time an Iona team won more than 27 games in a season was 1979-80. 17 conference wins ties a school record. The Gaels have been a mainstay in the tournament – making appearances in 6 of the last 8 seasons but have totalled 0 wins in that span. Iona’s last tournament win came in 2013.

#14 Grand Canyon

Conference: Western Athletic

NET Rank: #104

Overall (Conf): 24-11 (10-7)

Auto/At-Large: Automatic

Last Appearance: 2021 (1st Rd)

Last Championship: None

Grand Canyon joined the WAC in 2013 and found immediate success – posting winning years in 5 of their first 6 seasons. 24 wins for GCU this year is the program’s most since 2015-16. This 14th-seed bid in 2023 marks the 2nd time in 3 years Grand Canyon has gone dancing. They’re still looking for that first tournament win.

#15 UNC Asheville

Conference: Big South

NET Rank: #140

Overall (Conf): 27-7 (16-2)

Auto/At-Large: Automatic

Last Appearance: 2016 (1st Rd)

Last Championship: None

UNC Asheville fans just witnessed the program’s best season in history – shattering their previous-best win total of 24. This is the first time the Bulldogs have been invited to go dancing since 2016, but the team hasn’t been out of the 1st round since 2012.

#16 Howard

Conference: Mid-Eastern

NET Rank: #214

Overall (Conf): 22-12 (11-3)

Auto/At-Large: Automatic

Last Appearance: 1992 (1st Round)

Last Championship: None

D.C.’s Howard Bison could very well be the worst team in the field – winning just 22 games overall and going 11-3 in the ho-hum MEAC conference. Howard does not have a history of success in basketball. This is the 1st NCAA tournament appearance for 4-year Head Coach Kenneth Blakeney. Blakeney is considered lucky, though, as the past 5 Howard head coaches have all come and gone without an invitation to the big dance.

March Madness West Region Odds and Matchups

#16 Howard vs #1 Kansas

Thursday – 2:00pm ET

FanDuel Line/Total: KU -22.5 / 145.5

You’d be hard pressed to find a reason to pick Howard on the ML here. The Bison’s only top-25 game this season was a 32-point beat down at the hands of Kentucky. Meanwhile, Kansas has beaten 7 teams in the top-25 and … um, oh yeah … they’re the National Champions.

Howard poses less of a threat to Kansas than some of these other bottom-feeder teams in the field because the Bison don’t shoot a lot of threes. The three-pointer is the great equalizer in college basketball. Pulling monumental upsets becomes exponentially more difficult without it. Howard ranks 207th in three-point attempts per game.

This means the Bison will have an incredibly difficult time outperforming their season average of 75.5 points per game against Kansas. Is 75 enough to beat Kansas? Probably not. Is 75 enough to cover the spread? Certainly.

It’s conceivable that Howard could score a lot of points. They’re a balanced team offensively and KU isn’t elite on D. The Jayhawks rank 43rd in defensive efficiency – very good, but not elite.

22.5 points is an excellent line. It’s tough to find an edge here, but it’s smart to take Kansas at -22.5 as Howard just hasn’t shown us enough this year to warrant a bet.

#9 Illinois vs #8 Arkansas

Thursday – 4:30pm ET

FanDuel Line/Total: ARK -1.5 / 143.5

The gut reaction to seeing this line is to hammer the Razorbacks. Like, hammer hammer. Arkansas has fared amazingly well in the last 2 NCAA tournaments, but we need to be careful not to let their recent success cloud our judgment here in 2023. It’s a new year, and things change so much in 12 months in college basketball.

The Razorbacks hang their hats on a solid defense that holds opponents to 67.4 points per game, but guess what, the Fighting Illini actually allow fewer points per game (67.0) and have a much better record against ranked teams. Illinois is 5-4 in ranked games this year while Arkansas has lost 8 of 10 against top-25 opponents.

Most of the betting public is on Arkansas in this one, so it seems like a good time to take Illinois +1.5 and get a point or two.

#10 Boise State vs #7 Northwestern

Thursday – 7:35pm ET

FanDuel Line/Total: NW -1.5 / 127.5

Everyone raves about the Broncos’ defense, but Northwestern actually allows fewer points per game this season and has a superior defensive efficiency rating. The Wildcats rank 18th in the nation in DEFF at .927 while the Broncos are 34th at .937.

Outside of the Mountain West, Boise doesn’t have any big time wins to speak of, but Northwestern doesn’t have any good non-conference wins either. Vegas is expecting a slow, methodical, low-scoring game as neither team has flashed good offense this season nor have they proved they can turn it on in big moments.

When two unfamiliar teams have similar styles, it’s best to side with the points. Take Boise State +1.5.

#15 UNC Asheville vs #2 UCLA

Thursday – 10:05pm ET

FanDuel Line/Total: UCLA -17.5 / 135.5

Most basketball fans across the country will just click the bubble next to UCLA and move on without ever giving UNC Asheville a second thought. We’ve seen ten upsets from 15-seeds since 1985, however, so this is far from automatic.

Teams who turn the ball over a lot are prone to poor performances and being upset, but UCLA ranks 19th in the nation in turnovers per game (10.3) so they’re good there. Shoddy rebounding can also doom top seeds as they give their weaker counterparts unlimited scoring chances, but UCLA ranks 107th in defensive rebounding percentage, which is inside the top-third of the nation.

Typically, teams who shoot a lot of threes are more likely to pull off major upsets. UNC Asheville gets off less than 20 a game – ranking 255th in the country in attempts from deep.

None of the underlying statistics here indicate an upset is afoot. To boot, UCLA has faced spreads of 17.5 points or more 8 times this season and have won all 8 of those games, covering in 5 of them. Take UCLA -17.5 in this one.

#12 VCU vs #5 St. Mary’s

Friday – 2:00pm ET

FanDuel Line/Total: MARYS -4.5 / 122.5

Saint Mary’s feels like a team that should be a low seed fighting to pull off an upset, but they’re the big, bad favorite in this one against a VCU team that was a terror to face in the Shaka Smart days of the 2010s but a little less dangerous now.

The Gaels are an excellent defensive team – ranking top-10 in the country in defensive efficiency and allowing just 60 points per game which is the 4th-best in the land. The Rams of VCU will need to figure out a way to crack St. Mary’s with an offense that ranks 45th in the nation in field-goal percentage (46.5%) but 182nd in pace (70 possessions per game).

VCU plays pretty slow, but St. Mary’s plays at the 18th-slowest pace in the nation – getting just 65.7 precious possessions in each contest. Look for VCU to really push the tempo and try to take St. Mary’s out of their comfort zone.

Should the Rams grab an early lead, they can dictate a faster game and force the total well over the 122.5 threshold. Take the over 122.5.

#13 Iona vs #4 UConn

Friday – 4:30pm ET

FanDuel Line/Total: UCONN -9.5 / 140.5

The Gaels are on a 14-game winning streak and led by Head Coach Rick Pitino – a man with over 1,000 games of college basketball coaching experience. Statistically, Iona’s numbers look very similar to those of UConn, but we know the Huskies are playing far superior competition in the Big East than Iona is in the Metro Atlantic.

The biggest disparity in the game is between the 4th-ranked offensive rebounding of Connecticut and the 261st-ranked defensive rebounding of Iona. This alone will enable UConn to score enough easy buckets to push the lead to double digits by the final buzzer.

Take UConn -9.5. ESPN’s bracket stats warn that 4-13 games are typically single-digit affairs, but we’re going to bet against the trend this time.

#14 Grand Canyon vs #3 Gonzaga

Friday – 7:35pm ET

FanDuel Line/Total: ZAGS -15.5 / 155.5

Gonzaga is an absolutely stellar basketball team – light years better than Grand Canyon in almost every facet of the game. Almost.

The three-point game is where Grand Canyon may have an edge Friday. The Antelopes make their money from beyond the arc – hitting at a 37.6% rate from deep. This is the 23rd-best three-point percentage in the entire nation. Gonzaga ranks 250th in three-point defense – allowing opponents to shoot 35.0% from downtown against them.

Uh oh, that’s not what you want to hear if you’re a Bulldogs fan. This may be cause for concern for other top teams in college basketball, but not Gonzaga. Playing in the WCC, Gonzaga will feel right at home playing a weaker Grand Canyon team who tries to three-point them to death.

The Zags have shown a remarkable aptitude to get the job done in these early-round games – advancing to the Sweet 16 or farther in each NCAA tournament since 2010. Take Gonzaga -15.5 and look for them to roll again.

#11 Arizona State vs #6 TCU

Friday – 10:05pm ET

FanDuel Line/Total: TCU -4.5 / 140.5

The Horned Frogs had to wait until late Wednesday night to learn their opponent, but they couldn’t be happier with the draw. TCU matches up extremely well with Arizona State. Let’s get the pick out of the way, we’re taking TCU -4.5. Here’s why:

TCU doesn’t shoot the ball well – making just 30.6% of their threes which ranks 339th in Division 1. The Horned Frogs’ overall field-goal percentage of 45.7% is better but still not great – ranking 84th in the nation.

TCU is able to score because they grab loads of offensive rebounds and don’t turn the ball over excessively (12.2 times per game). The Sun Devils are a great team at contesting shots – holding opponents to the 13th-lowest shooting percentage in the country – but that doesn’t matter against a TCU team who doesn’t even shoot well uncontested.

Guess what ASU’s biggest weakness is? You guessed it. Defensive rebounding. The Sun Devils collect just 70.9% of the available defensive boards – 290th in the country.