March Madness 2023 – South Region Picks and Odds

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds to Win the South Region

Below are the March Madness futures odds given to each team in the South Region to represent the region in the Final Four.

Alabama (+150)

Arizona (+380)

Baylor (+600)

Creighton (+850)

Virginia (+1500)

San Diego State (+1500)

West Virginia (+1500)

Maryland (+2000)

NC State (+4000)

Utah State (+4000)

Missouri (+4500)

Furman (+10000)

Charleston (+10000)

UCSB (+12000)

Texas A&M-CC (+25000)

Currently no odds posted for Princeton.

Meet the 16 Teams in the South Region

#1 Alabama

Conference: SEC

NET Rank: #2

Overall (Conf): 29-5 (16-2)

Auto/At-Large: Automatic

Last Appearance: 2022 (1st Round)

Last Championship: None

The Crimson Tide cap off their most successful season in school history (29 wins) by winning the SEC tournament and finishing #1 in the final AP poll for the first time ever.

#2 Arizona

Conference: Pac-12

NET Rank: #10

Overall (Conf): 28-6 (14-6)

Auto/At-Large: Automatic

Last Appearance: 2022 (Sweet 16)

Last Championship: 1997

The Wildcats follow up a 33-win season and a trip to the Sweet 16 with a 28-6 year and a Pac-12 tournament championship. Since the beginning of the 2020 season, no Pac-12 team has more regular season wins than Arizona (70).

#3 Baylor

Conference: Big 12

NET Rank: #15

Overall (Conf): 22-10 (11-7)

Auto/At-Large: At-Large

Last Appearance: 2022 (2nd Rd)

Last Championship: 2021

Baylor won the 2020-21 National Championship in the bubble. The Bears will relish another chance to make a deep tournament run in front of packed crowds with millions of interested fans tuning in at home.

#4 Virginia

Conference: ACC

NET Rank: #27

Overall (Conf): 25-7 (15-5)

Auto/At-Large: At-Large

Last Appearance: 2021 (1st Rd)

Last Championship: 2019

The Cavaliers have fallen extremely hard since winning the first national title in program history in the 2018-19 season. Virginia’s last 3 seasons go: no NCAA tournament, 1st-round exit, no NCAA tournament.

#5 San Diego State

Conference: Mountain West

NET Rank: #14

Overall (Conf): 27-6 (15-3)

Auto/At-Large: Automatic

Last Appearance: 2022 (1st Rd)

Last Championship: None

The Aztecs have played brilliant basketball all season long, including a run of the Mountain West tournament. The only problem is no one watches them because their games start at 11pm eastern.

#6 Creighton

Conference: Big East

NET Rank: #17

Overall (Conf): 21-12 (14-6)

Auto/At-Large: At-Large

Last Appearance: 2022 (2nd Rd)

Last Championship: None

Creighton bowed out to Xavier in the 2nd round of the Big East tournament, but the Bluejays took Big East conference champion and NCAA tournament 2-seed Marquette to the wire just 3 short weeks ago.

#7 Missouri

Conference: SEC

NET Rank: #42

Overall (Conf): 24-9 (11-7)

Auto/At-Large: At-Large

Last Appearance: 2021 (1st Rd)

Last Championship: None

The Tigers lost to eventual-SEC champion and AP #1 Alabama in the 2nd round of the conference tournament. No shame there. Missouri had won 5 games in a row before that loss to the Tide.

#8 Maryland

Conference: Big Ten

NET Rank: #31

Overall (Conf): 21-12 (11-9)

Auto/At-Large: At-Large

Last Appearance: 2021 (2nd Round)

Last Championship: 2002

The Terps have big wins this year over Miami (a 5-seed), Indiana (a 4-seed), and Purdue (a 1-seed).

 

#9 West Virginia

Conference: Big 12

NET Rank: #25

Overall (Conf): 19-14 (7-11)

Auto/At-Large: At-Large

Last Appearance: 2021 (2nd Rd)

Last Championship: None

The Mountaineers began Big 12 conference play by dropping their first 5 games before rebounding in a major way by defeating TCU (ranked #14 at the time). After the 0-5 start, WVU was a respectable 7-6 the rest of the way with wins over the aforementioned TCU (a 6-seed), Iowa State (a 6-seed), and Kansas State (a 3-seed).

#10 Utah State

Conference: Mountain West

NET Rank: #18

Overall (Conf): 26-8 (13-5)

Auto/At-Large: At-Large

Last Appearance: 2021 (1st Rd)

Last Championship: None

The Aggies received an at-large bid to the dance by virtue of their lofty 26-win total, but did not beat a single team who finished the season ranked in the final AP Poll. Utah State was beaten 3 times by San Diego State this year – the 1 ranked team Utah State played.

#11 North Carolina State

Conference: ACC

NET Rank: #45

Overall (Conf): 23-10 (12-8)

Auto/At-Large: At-Large

Last Appearance: 2018 (1st Rd)

Last Championship: 1983

Wolfpack Head Coach Kevin Keatts put together his best team this season since taking over at NC State in 2017. Coincidentally, the Wolfpack played their weakest schedule this season since Kevin Keatts took over in 2017.

#12 College of Charleston

Conference: Colonial Athletic

NET Rank: #51

Overall (Conf): 31-3 (16-2)

Auto/At-Large: Automatic

Last Appearance: 2018 (1st Rd)

Last Championship: None

The Cougars were invited to 4 NCAA tournaments in the 1990s, but have only played in 1 since the turn of the century. This March will be their 2nd. College of Charleston was ranked as high as 18th in the AP Polls this year – the program’s highest ranking since the 1998-99 season.

#13 Furman

Conference: Southern

NET Rank: #88

Overall (Conf): 27-7 (15-3)

Auto/At-Large: Automatic

Last Appearance: 1980 (1st Rd)

Last Championship: None

The Paladins have just turned in their most successful season in program history – 27 wins and a Southern Conference championship. Furman Head Coach Bob Richey is only in his 6th season at the helm, but is already considered one of the best coaches in the school’s history. Under Richey’s coaching, the Paladins were ranked in the AP Polls in 2018-19 for the first time ever and now have been invited to their first NCAA tournament in over 40 years.

#14 UC – Santa Barbara

Conference: Big West

NET Rank: #100

Overall (Conf): 27-7 (15-5)

Auto/At-Large: Automatic

Last Appearance: 2021 (1st Rd)

Last Championship: None

The Gauchos set a new program record for wins this season (27) and tied their record for conference wins (15) that was set back in 2020-21. This March marks the 7th all-time NCAA tournament appearance for UCSB. They’ve won just 1 tournament game (1990) in their program’s history.

#15 Princeton

Conference: Ivy League

NET Rank: #111

Overall (Conf): 21-8 (10-4)

Auto/At-Large: Automatic

Last Appearance: 2017 (1st Rd)

Last Championship: None

The Tigers set records this year when both their men’s and women’s basketball teams won the Ivy League tournament. Princeton men’s basketball has some stellar seasons contained in its history, but not within the past 50 years. The Tigers were in the Final Four in 1965, received 4 NCAA tournament bids in the 1980s, and 5 more in the 90s. Princeton’s last NCAA tournament win was in 1998.

#16 Texas A&M – CC

Conference: Southland

NET Rank: #175

Overall (Conf): 23-10 (14-4)

Auto/At-Large: Automatic

Last Appearance: 2022 (First Four)

Last Championship: None

The Islanders from Texas A&M – Corpus Christi are dancing for the 2nd season in a row. Last year, Texas Southern got ’em in the First Four. This March, the Islanders defeated Southeast Missouri State 75-71 on Tuesday night in Dayton, OH to earn a spot in the Round of 64.

March Madness South Region Odds and Matchups

#9 West Virginia vs #8 Maryland

Thursday – 12:15pm ET

FanDuel Line/Total: WVU -2.5 / 137.5

The Terrapins have played good teams very close this season – nearly sweeping 1-seed Purdue, falling just short against 4-seed Tennessee, and then actually getting there against Indiana and Miami (FL).

Maryland doesn’t shoot the ball well – ranking 142nd in the nation in field-goal percentage (44.9%). The Mountaineers struggle defensively, though, as evidenced by their 191st points per game allowed ranking and their 4-8 record against top-25 teams.

West Virginia also doesn’t shoot the ball particularly well – ranking 100th in the nation in field-goal percentage (45.3%). WVU will look to get to the line against Maryland, but that’s easier said than done. The Terps allow the 38th-fewest free-throw attempts in the country (15.1).

The Mountaineers are 2-6 in the 8 games this season in which they’ve been held to 16 free-throw attempts or fewer.

All of this, and Maryland is getting 2.5 points? Easy money. Take the Terps +2.5.

#13 Furman vs #4 Virginia

Thursday – 12:40pm ET

FanDuel Line/Total: UVA -5.5 / 131.5

What happens when a streaky, semi-unstoppable force meets an immovable object? You give the force 5 and a half points.

The Furman Paladins are the streaky force that is sometimes unstoppable. They shoot a lot of threes. Like, a lot. Over 46% of Furman’s shot attempts are from three-point land (which amounts to about 27 per night) and they make them at a 34.4% clip. That’s not a particularly high success rate, but the Paladins’ offense becomes lethal on those nights when they’re making 40% or more from deep.

Furman scores 82.1 points per game – the 11th-highest average in college basketball. Virginia only scores 67.8. Of course, the Paladins allow over 71 points on average to their opponents while the Cavs allow around 60.

It is unlikely that Furman drops 82 on Virginia, but it’s equally unlikely that Furman holds Virginia to 67. This game comes down to whether you think Furman will have a good shooting night.

The Cavaliers rank quite low in opposing three-point percentage – allowing 34.0% to fall – 178th in the nation. On paper, this just doesn’t look like a good matchup for Virginia.

To boot, ESPN unearthed that the 4-13 matchups have historically been the closest first-round games over the past decade or two. 5.5 points is too many to spot a loose cannon like the Paladins. Take Furman +5.5.

#10 Utah State vs #7 Missouri

Thursday – 1:40pm ET

FanDuel Line/Total: USU -1.5 / 155.5

Here’s a hot take: despite the narrow 1.5-point spread, the Missouri-Utah State game will be the most lopsided first-round South Region matchup. Both of these teams are so volatile and have definitely shown the propensity to be blown out.

Missouri’s offense scores 79.5 points per game which ranks 18th in the NCAA. The Tigers have beaten 4-seed Tennessee twice plus taken down both Kentucky and Iowa State. This proves the Tigers possess the necessary firepower to stomp a 10-seed like Utah State into the ground if they play well.

That’s a big if, because Missouri allows 74.6 points per game which ranks 280th in the nation. Also, the Tigers only grab 64.2% of the available rebounds on defense – the absolute worst percentage of the 363 basketball teams in Division 1. They rely so heavily on their offense to score that they are incapable of keeping the game close on those bad shooting nights.

Utah State’s offense is great, as well – scoring 77.7 a game which ranks 32nd in the land. Looking at the defensive statistics, the Aggies aren’t much better than Missouri. Factor in the weaker schedule and they’re nearly exactly the same.

This one has all the makings of a blowout. A couple of high-offense, no-defense squads playing under immense pressure. The odds are that only 1 of them will show up Thursday. The question is, which will it be?

We like the Tigers resume and skill set more. Take Missouri +1.5, and don’t be afraid to bump that line up for some extra dollars.

#16 Texas A&M-CC vs #1 Alabama

Thursday – 2:45pm ET

FanDuel Line/Total: BAMA -23.5 / 155.5

Alabama is the new #1 in the AP Poll following Houston’s loss to Memphis in the American title game. The Crimson Tide can absolutely fill it up – averaging 82.2 points per game which is 5th in the nation.

The Tide are pretty solid defensively, too – allowing 68.5 points per game with the country’s 5th-best defensive efficiency (.897).

The Islanders from Corpus Christi score a lot, too (78.3 points per game), but do so against Southland Conference competition – not in the SEC. We already know the game plan for A&M-CC Thursday – chuck up a ton of threes.

All Alabama needs is a good day on the boards to clean up those long misses and they’ll roll. The Tide are not the best rebounding team in the nation – sporting the 85th-best defensive rebounding percentage, but 16-seeds don’t normally come out firing on all cylinders, either.

Take Alabama -23.5 against an Islanders team that is in way over their head.

#12 Charleston vs #5 San Diego State

Thursday – 3:10pm ET

FanDuel Line/Total: SDSU -5.5 / 141.5

Another ESPN factoid about NCAA tournament upsets – 12-seeds beat 5-seeds in the 1st round all the time. 12-over-5 has been the most frequent first-round major upset of the past 30 years. Most brackets made this time of year contain that token 12-over-5 upset that doesn’t sit well when you’re writing it in, but you somehow know it’s going to hit.

A 12-seed very well may win a game this year, but it’s not going to be College of Charleston. Here’s why:

The Cougars don’t shoot the three-ball particularly well (33.3%) and yet they attempt more than any other team in college basketball. The Cougars play fast and aggressive – averaging the 47th-most possessions per game in the nation and shooting three-pointers on 47.4% of their shot attempts. This style of play has worked in the Colonial to the tune of 31 wins, but comes with some very tangible side effects.

One, College of Charleston ranks 125th in the nation in turnovers per game. Two, this relatively thin Cougars rotation tends to tire in the 2nd half – allowing 36 2nd-half points per game to their opponents – 130th in the nation.

The Cougars have been able offset these negatives and stave off losses by grabbing an inordinate amount of offensive rebounds. Charleston grabs the 2nd-most offensive boards in the nation (11.8 per game).

Here’s where their game plan will break down against the Aztecs – one of the best teams Charleston has played all year. The Aztecs are not an elite rebounding club, but they’re more than adequate – grabbing 76.2% of the available defensive rebounds this season – 69th in the country.

SDSU is a senior-laden team who understands exactly how to beat teams like Charleston. Slow the pace, don’t bite on fakes, contest shots, and rebound rebound rebound.

We don’t see the Aztecs getting out in transition a whole lot in this one as they’ll be using all 5 guys on the defensive boards to take away the Cougars’ biggest strength which is offensive rebounding. Take SDSU -5.5 and the under 141.5.

#15 Princeton vs #2 Arizona

Thursday – 4:10pm ET

FanDuel Line/Total: ARIZ -14.5 / 154.0

Princeton is the weakest team in the South Region. Arizona is the 2nd strongest. The Wildcats are 6-1 against top-25 opponents in 2022-23 while the Tigers have yet to face one.

Arizona scores the 3rd-most points per game in college basketball (82.7) in a stacked Power-5 conference while Princeton scores 75.0 per game in the weak Ivy League. The Tigers are terribly one-dimensional – relying on forward Tosan Evbuomwan to carry – while the Wildcats have several guys capable of going off.

Teams like the Wildcats who excel on both ends of the floor are not the high seeds you see getting upset in the first round. 15-over-2 upsets do happen, but we doubt we’ll see one here against this well-rounded Arizona squad who isn’t going to let Princeton get into their rhythm.

Take Arizona -14.5.

#14 UCSB vs #3 Baylor

Friday – 1:30pm ET

FanDuel Line/Total: BAY -10.5 / 142.5

At first glance, a 10.5-point spread in a UCSB game is a bit much. The Gauchos slow the pace to a grinding halt – averaging only 67 offensive possessions per game which is 317th in the nation.

It’s tough to create double-digit separation on a team like that. Also, Santa Barbara shoots the ball well – posting a 49.0% field-goal percentage this year. That’s top-10 in the country.

UCSB only has 7 losses on the year. 4 of those were by more than 10.5 points. The Gauchos fell to Duquesne in November by 11, to UC Irvine in February by 11, and to UC Riverside the very next game … also by 11.

The Gauchos’ biggest loss on the year was to Cal State Fullerton – a 14-point loss immediately following the Riverside loss. So yes, that means 3 of UCSB’s 4 double-digit losses came in succession. They’ve certainly gotten right since then, winning 7 straight contests to breeze through the Big West to conclude the year.

The biggest red flag for Santa Barbara is the lack of a measuring-stick game. They never played a ranked team. Baylor played 10. If Baylor were a stout defensive team, they would matchup up so much better with the Gauchos … but they’re not. The Bears struggle defensively – allowing 70.3 points per game to opponents and a shooting percentage against of 45.3% (ranks 260th).

It’s not as if UCSB will be facing their first elite defense of the season Friday. The Gauchos have the depth and skill to give Baylor’s defense fits and keep the game close. Bears coach Scott Drew will need to keep his boys patient, as it’s very easy to lose your cool and start trying to force action against UCSB’s slow, methodical style.

There are plenty of high-level college basketball teams who could beat UCSB by 11, but Baylor – in their current state – is not one of them. Take UCSB +10.5.

#11 NC State vs #6 Creighton

Friday – 4:00pm ET

FanDuel Line/Total: CRE -5.5 / 148.5

ESPN’s bracket stats are out here sayin’ that 11-seeds are actually above .500 against 6-seeds over the past 8 years. So does that mean to click the little bubble next to NC State and move on? No, not so fast!

Creighton is a solid ball team. Big man Ryan Kalkbrenner patrols the paint and is a major reason why the Bluejays rank 53rd in the nation in blocks per game (4.2).

This paint defense helps make Creighton the 19th-best team defending opposing 2-point shots and #72 nationwide in defensive efficiency. The Jays allow just 68.5 points per game on the year and actually have far more games against high-level competition in the Big East this season (12) than NC State has had in the ACC (4).

We’re going to have to fly in the face of the 11-seed upsets trend and take Creighton -5.5 here. The Jays are better in nearly every metric. The Wolfpack have been so volatile a team this season that they could easily be down big at half and lose this game by 25.