FBS Bowl Games in 2022-23: Updated Betting Lines, Gator Bowl Underdog Pick, and Advance CFP Scoring Forecast

Thursday, December 22: Air Force Falcons vs Baylor Bears (Armed Forces Bowl)

One of the most intriguing pairings of the 2022-23 bowl season is Baylor and Air Force. The Air Force Falcons are a (+4.5) underdog in the Armed Forces Bowl, but it isn’t because odds-makers haven’t come to respect Air Force as highly as any Mountain West brand this year.

In our college football prediction for Week 15, we recapped how military brass have recently allowed linemen at service academies to retain more weight upon recruitment, helping to make Army and Navy’s rush offenses even more bullish while big defenses turn Army-Navy Game bouts into slow-motion slogs. There’s no better example of the Commander-in-Chief front-7 upgrades, though than Air Force’s defense in 2022.

The Falcons have fared more like a Boise State than an Army this fall, going 9-3 behind the FBS’s top-ranked statistical defense. While the prodigious ball control of 2022’s service-academy champion has something to do with Air Force’s wonderful yards-against totals, the season’s only slip-ups came when an opponent shut Troy Calhoun’s multiple offenses down. The Falcons held the Boise State Broncos and San Diego State Aztecs to a combined 22 points, and incredibly, allowed just 3 meaningful TD’s in Air Force’s final 6 games.

Unfortunately for Air Force, Baylor is a rare Power-5 team that is headed into a “minor” bowl game with minimal transfer-portal woes and potentially zero NFL Draft opt-outs. The Bears’ 2022-23 lineup, in fact, could be compared to a successful, senior-laden college basketball team whose players were just overlooked enough by scouts as underclassmen to avoid getting a pro-sports offer that they couldn’t turn down.

The Bears’ defense has been questionable in a 3-game active losing streak, however, causing a coaching shake-up on Baylor’s less accomplished side of the pigskin. But it’s hard to overlook how the Bears’ schedule has had the offense knocking up against granite, taking on the defensive fronts of Kansas State, TCU, and Texas on the Longhorns’ final celebratory home game. The Falcons could have the strongest, toughest defense in the Mountain Time Zone, let alone the Mountain West, and still not compare to those Big 12 units.

FanDuel’s O/U line of (43.5) total points in the Armed Forces Bowl seems awfully low. The Bears’ running backs could find daylight that they haven’t seen since the Oklahoma win, toiling with the team’s top string in the opposite scenario versus what Florida faced against power-football dynamo Oregon State. If upstart Air Force falls behind by 2 touchdowns, and the quest for a 10-win season goes glimmering, expect more of Calhoun’s NFL play selection to come to the fore as the CIC champs open up the offense.

WagerBop’s Pick: Over (43.5)

Friday, December 23: Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs Missouri Tigers (Gasparilla Bowl)

The bookmakers at FanDuel wouldn’t be caught slapping a cautious O/U line on the Gasparilla Bowl (O/U (59.5)) featuring the Wake Forest Demon Deacons and Mizzou Tigers. The Demon Deacons, a slight (-113) favorite to beat Mizzou on Friday, has practically reinvented high-tempo ACC offense in the absence of Trevor Lawrence’s successful 2:00 drills, dragging defense-oriented teams like Liberty, Clemson, and Syracuse to high-scoring outcomes in 2022. Missouri comes off its typical rollercoaster of an SEC season with 1st-year-starter Brady Cook at QB.

However, the long-term trends for the season point to a stubborn battle, if not a Tigers upset win. While there aren’t many key NFL Draft opt-outs likely to be suffered on either side prior to Christmas, it isn’t as if Wake Forest’s 1st-string offense has had the kind of campaign that it did a season ago. FBS defenses adjust to teams putting up 60+ points in the same way NFL coordinators manage to slow down point-a-minute teams eventually.

Duke’s ball control in the Blue Devils’ recent 34-31 victory over Wake shows that the fast Deacons’ offense, the sensation of the east coast not long ago, is a double-edged sword.

The Tigers’ defense has begun to grow into a top-tier SEC unit. Cook’s scrambling ability will extend drives as coach Eli Drinkwitz looks to mimic Duke’s plan to win. Most crucially, Demon Deacons’ running game, ranked bottom-half in the diminished ACC this season, will potentially fall flat in the Red Zone against Mizzou, leading to a game of FGs.

WagerBop’s Pick: Under (59.5)

Thursday, December 29: Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Syracuse Orange (Pinstripe Bowl)

Put the YouTube channels on alert! This bowl season’s controversies can’t go without including the Minnesota Golden Gophers vs the Syracuse Orange, a postseason “Big Ten” contest of opponents who failed to earn a division crown.

It’s good that the Pinstripe Bowl isn’t a rematch of a game from the Big Ten’s regular season of 2022-23. That eventuality would produce more controversy-recap videos than anyone really wanted to watch. But the match-up is also a “consolation game” booking that’s comparable to the NFL’s discontinued Playoff Bowl, which a participating Vince Lombardi once called “The Toilet Bowl” … along with less-printable phrases.

Efficacious bettors know to look all over the place for good picks … in the computer den and elsewhere. What matters if the Pinstripe Bowl isn’t lauded as a classic by the media if moneyline picks on the contest pay off just as well as winners of the Super Bowl do? In addition, the low-key—and cold weather—aspects of the 2022 Pinstripe Bowl could be critical in discovering a path to beating the sportsbook before New Year’s.

The Golden Gophers (-330) are an extremely thin favorite, an indoor team that might suffer more opt-outs by 12/29 than the ledger currently shows. Syracuse is the type of all-for-one underdog that would flourish in either a replacement-laden game or an overlooked bowl outcome fought out in poor weather. Syracuse is a great pick ATS or to win.

WagerBop’s Pick: Syracuse (+260)

Friday, December 30: Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs South Carolina Gamecocks (Gator Bowl)

We have a fondness for underdog South Carolina (+2.5) against the Fighting Irish in the Gator Bowl, a pick that could be overlooked in favor of more popular bets on the early Orange Bowl edition and other marquee kickoffs. Of course, it proves quite impossible to put the Fighting Irish on a gridiron and not garner plenty of mainstream attention for a bowl game, but that same hype can lead to some chintzy sportsbook prices too.

A bad taste was left in the mouths of SEC bettors after Florida’s backup-string loss to Oregon State. There are clues, though, that the same fate won’t befall the Gamecocks. QB Spencer Rattler has announced that he will play in the Gator Bowl, potentially helping to stem the tide of any “Gator”-like defections from USC. The Fighting Irish have been a flaky pick all season and could need a last-minute FG to defeat South Carolina if managing the feat at all.

WagerBop’s Pick: South Carolina ATS (+2.5)

College Football Playoff: Lines, Forecast, and Over/Under Predictions

Saturday, December 31: Michigan Wolverines vs TCU Horned Frogs (Fiesta Bowl)

Point-totals for the College Football Playoff must be weighed in consideration of potential blow-out scores and “trash time” in either or both semifinals. The Michigan Wolverines (-6.5) are taking on a TCU team that did not win the Big 12 championship but was otherwise undefeated and has been looking forward to earning respect for Midwestern ball.

Head coach Jim Harbaugh’s unbeaten and 2nd-seeded Wolverines rarely set out to score 6-or-more touchdowns in victory this season. But defenses have been so overwhelmed by the Wolverines’ straightforward offense that Michigan scored 40+ in 4 of its last 7 victories.

The betting action and O/U line for the Fiesta Bowl doesn’t appear that congruent in 2022. The Wolverines are getting close to 70% of the picks to cover ATS and to win on a thin money-line market of 1-to-3 odds. Yet the point-total line remains very high at O/U (58.5), a number which can only be likely if the Horned Frogs fight back and produce some points.

Texas Christian’s final stretch run against elite defenses consistently produced final scores totaling under 60 points and even scored an exceptionally easy low-side win when Texas and TCU fought in a defensive struggle. Prior to that, up-tempo Texas Christian consistently smashed O/U lines vs opponents like OU, OSU, and SMU. But if there’s anything we know about Harbaugh, it’s that he’s not there to entertain the fans as much as Oklahoma and Oklahoma State football might be. If analysts agree UM will enjoy protracted game control, then the semifinal should be paced like Michigan wants it to be.

WagerBop’s Pick: Under (58.5)

Saturday, December 31: Georgia Bulldogs vs Ohio State Buckeyes (Peach Bowl)

The Peach Bowl has a similar handicap in semifinal action between the Georgia Bulldogs and Ohio State Buckeyes. FanDuel Sportsbook‘s odds-makers are taking no prisoners with a whopping (62.5) point-total number on Georgia and OSU. That’s a bold handicap considering how Ohio State coaches have figured out excellent uses for Jack Sawyer and other star tacklers in 2022-23, just as the Bulldogs’ defense continues to be hailed as a dynastic group.

FanDuel users, once again, overwhelmingly prefer the Bulldogs to win and to cover a TD spread but aren’t making the corollary impact on Over/Under odds as recreational picks rule the day. Bookmakers and gamblers alike are thinking only about how many plays will be snapped in the Peach Bowl … not how likely those snaps are to produce 1st downs.

WagerBop’s Pick: Under (62.5)