NFL Picks in Week 12: Thanksgiving Previews, Chiefs vs Rams ATS, and Lions vs Bills Prop Bet Prediction

WagerBop is dishing-up a Turkey Day menu of 2 predictions on NFL games, and 3 picks on Sunday’s kickoffs in Week 12. But don’t expect a dessert of 4 betting picks on Monday Night Football – with a dull final contest between Pittsburgh and Indianapolis, anyone who is still up for speculating 4 total times during this round’s MNF game ought to be prescribed an extra helping of Xanax and glass of mulled wine.

Don’t worry, next week we’ll cover a big MNF scrum as Tom Brady takes the field in prime-time once again. For now, this weekend’s NFL scroll begins with the Buffalo Bills playing on their weird new “home” turf.

Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions (Thursday Nov. 24)

The NFL is tinkering a bit with its Thanksgiving schedule, leading to unique handicapping circumstances in Week 12. Point spreads on Turkey Day can veer toward the tight and the fast-shifting, but even the New York Giants’ impressive win-loss record hasn’t stopped bookmakers from taking 10 points away from surging Dallas at home against the Big Blue. Minnesota and New England can boast a tighter point spread for Thursday Night Football, but the Vikings’ putrid form in Week 11, compared to how the rest of the Twin Cities’ season has gone, could lead to a scenario where both teams’ gamblers are looking for “action points” hoping that their pick will “gobble, gobble” up a lopsided win.

Thanksgiving’s intriguing NFL stories don’t end there. National Football League scheduling officials probably thought they were offering a brand-new Turkey Day slate of fresh teams and venues after diverting from the usual “Rust Belt” theme this Thursday. Instead, the Buffalo Bills are an “AFC East” club that ought to start getting used to performing at Ford Field. Buffalo played in a rather coincidental game in Detroit on Sunday, but not against Motor City’s home team. Rather, the Bills performed in a replacement-venue contest due to the snow in upstate New York. Buffalo is a solid (-9.5) favorite over the steadily-improving Lions in Week 12’s earliest NFL kickoff.

Detroit is such a pesky underdog-to-cover that it’s difficult to pick against the Lions at home, and yet the Buffalo Bills are starting to get comfortable in their satellite surroundings in a fashion similar to how the San Francisco 49ers made Phoenix into a home away from home in the COVID-19 era.

Our recommended pick is on Detroit’s Jared Goff to finish the Lions-Bills game with more passing yards than star counterpart Josh Allen, thanks to the “back door” angle of the Bills potentially taking a big lead, running the rock, and forcing Detroit to throw downfield to try to come back. If bookmakers are wrong and it’s the Lions to take a nice lead at halftime, then Goff will probably have a head-start on Allen for total passing yards on the day.

WagerBop’s Pick: Jared Goff Highest Pass Yards Total (Prop Bet Pick) (+158)

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (Thursday Nov. 24)

It’s time to pump the brakes on Dallas Cowboys (-10) hype once again, at least until the Silver Star isn’t garnering double-digit point spreads for rivalry games vs winning opponents. The Cowboys nearly allowed 2 rushers 100+ yards in a 23-16 victory over New York earlier this fall, a game that was very evenly-matched through 3 frames.

Crowd noise at Jerry World won’t boost a run defense quite as much as a fierce pass-rush, and quarterback Daniel Jones’ team – much like the Buffalo Bills in Week 11 – is probably just as glad performing in the MetroPlex with wet, cold weather bearing down on the east.

WagerBop’s Pick: Giants ATS

Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars (Sunday Nov. 27)

Baltimore’s paltry (-4) point spread line at Jacksonville is based on a number of observations that Las Vegas ‘cappers are making, including Lamar Jackson’s consistently and turnover issues in 2022, Baltimore’s relatively low scoring output for a 1st place team, and 3-7 Jacksonville’s high-effort defense that allowed no MVP performances from Kansas City’s wide receivers in the Jags’ previous game on November 13th, though the seminal Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce chewed-up Jacksonville in KC’s eventual 27-17 victory.

NFL odds-makers might try “observing” Baltimore’s game footage. It’s true that the Ravens didn’t set the world on fire in last weekend’s low-scoring win over Carolina, but we have reported quite often that Carolina remains a surprisingly dangerous spoiler with the departure of long-time tailback Christian McCaffery. John Harbaugh was focused on getting his team out-of-dodge without any disastrous turns (or turnovers) in foul northeastern conditions. It was a 13-3 win straight out of the 1970s, but it wasn’t as suspenseful as this week’s odds imply, and certainly doesn’t mean the Baltimore Ravens of 2022-23 can’t defeat a 3-7 team by 5+ points on the road and cover the spread.

WagerBop’s Pick: Ravens ATS (-4)

L.A. Rams at Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday Nov. 27)

And here we thought match-ups like England vs Iran were causing the biggest mismatched betting lines. You wouldn’t have pegged the defending Super Bowl champion L.A. Rams to be 15-point underdogs to any team this season, but the Thanksgiving Weekend odds at FanDuel are unmistakable – there are the Super Bowl 56 victors at (+15.5) on the point spread, and Kansas City’s (-1200) moneyline odds are just as eye-popping.

KC’s front office has done a good job of replacing superstars like Tyreek Hill with a new assortment of skill players, contributing to KC’s offense as much in aggregate as Hill often did by himself on Sundays. KC’s (+470) odds to lift the Lombardi Trophy have climbed significantly, the 2nd-best mark behind Buffalo’s.

Recent wins over San Francisco and the L.A. Chargers have sent a message to the rest of the league. Meanwhile, the Mountain Goats stand at an unthinkable 3-7 and in danger of missing the playoffs.

However, it still takes a lot more evidence to justify a (+15.5) point spread on any NFL opponent, let alone the defending champs. Sean McVay’s team will prepare hard to perform on an unseasonably warm weekend in Missouri, and if cold rain does become a factor, it could help to cause Kansas City to drop just a few of Pat Mahomes’ laser passes.

WagerBop’s Pick: Rams ATS (+15.5)

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday Night Football)

Given how poorly the Green Bay offense has fared on the road in 2022, the sportsbook’s cautious (-6.5) point spread on Philadelphia this week gives users an opportunity to pick the young-lion QB Jalen Hurts to make a statement over the old-lion in Aaron Rodgers. Sunday’s anticipated rain in Philly, if it comes at game-time, could simply make the Pack more accident-prone while encouraging Hurts to take over the contest with dual-threat running and downfield throws.

WagerBop’s Pick: Eagles ATS (-6.5)