6 weeks of NFL play is more than enough to create a wide gulf between the rich and the poor. Teams sitting at 5-1 reach the playoffs 84.1% of the time historically, for example.
The chasm between 4-2 and 3-3 teams is quite enormous. 4-2 teams are in good shape – reaching the postseason in 63.6% of cases. 3-3 teams are in big trouble – qualifying for postseason play only 34.5% of the time.
A 2-4 start may seem redeemable, but the historical data says it is not. 2-4 teams storm back to snag a postseason spot in just 10.4% of cases. No team starting the NFL season 2-4 has ever won a Super Bowl!
Condolences to the Broncos, Raiders, Browns, Steelers, Texans, Jags, Commanders, Lions, Bears and Panthers. Your season is over.
Using probability data from both FootballOutsiders and FiveThirtyEight, the following 8 teams have the best odds to reach the postseason in the NFL.
Here they are, along with some relevant info so you know what you’re talking about when these teams get brought up in conversation.
Eagles (6-0, 99.5%)
Philadelphia is football’s lone undefeated team but is the 2nd-most likely team to win the Super Bowl (behind Buffalo) according to both FiveThirtyEight and FootballOutsiders.
There isn’t a facet of the game in which the Eagles don’t excel – ranking top-5 in several major offensive and defensive categories.
Philadelphia boasts the league’s 3rd-best offensive yards per game average (394.5) and the 5th-most rushing yards per contest (156.0). Their defense holds the opponent to the 4th-fewest yards gained in the NFL (297.8) – 1 of just 5 teams allowing under 300 yards of offense.
26.8 points per game is 4th in the NFL. The Eagles win games by an average of 26.8 to 17.5 – the 2nd-largest differential in football – again behind Buffalo.
Philly’s leader? Quarterback Jalen Hurts, of course. Hurts has thrown for 6 TDs in 2022 and rushed for 6 more. HC Nick Sirianni loves to utilize the run-pass option game with his 24-year-old quarterback, and it’s been nearly unstoppable through 6 weeks.
Bills (5-1, 98.8%)
Buffalo dropped a divisional contest in balmy Miami but are still the Super Bowl favorites by most metrics. Offense or defense – Buffalo does it all. The Bills score 29.3 points per game (2nd in the NFL) and allow just 13.5 points on defense (1st in the NFL).
Josh Allen is the best quarterback in the NFL this season – leading the league in yards (1,980), passing touchdowns (17), QBR (75.5) and passer rating (109.1).
Buffalo’s O-line has done an amazing job keeping the heat off their $288-million quarterback. Allen has been sacked on just 3.53% of all dropbacks in 2022 – the 3rd-fewest in the NFL.
Vikings (5-1, 88.9%)
Minnesota flirted with the postseason in each of their disappointing 2020 and 2021 seasons – finishing 7-9 and 8-9 respectively. This year, the Vikings are off to their first 5-1 start since 2016 and are an 89% favorite to reach the NFL postseason.
Losing only to Philly in Week 2, the Vikings have been able to ride the Kirk Cousins-Justin Jefferson connection to nail-biting win after nail-biting win.
The 34-year-old Cousins ranks 9th in passing yards this year with 1,502 through 6 weeks. His star wideout – 23-year-old Justin Jefferson – ranks 3rd in football with 654 receiving yards. Only Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs are outplaying Jefferson at the receiver position in 2022.
Cowboys (4-2, 88.4%)
The 2022 season has not cooperated with Dallas’ plans – knocking their star quarterback out for 5 weeks. This would spell doom for many franchises but not the Cowboys. Backup Cooper Rush stepped up and shone – winning 4 of 5 games in Dak Prescott’s absence.
“America’s Team” is 4-2 and will have Prescott back for their Week 7 date with Detroit. The only losses this year for Dallas are to Tom Brady and Jalen Hurts – no shame there.
Excellent defense is the Cowboys’ calling card – holding opposing offenses to the 8th-fewest yards per game (304.2) and 3rd-fewest points per game (16.3) in the NFL this season.
Buccaneers (3-3, 79.8%)
Tom Brady lost 2 games in a row and the nation reeled. He’s 45. He’s going through some personal stuff. He’s lost a lot of his offensive weapons.
All this, and Tom Brady still ranks 4th in passing yards (1,652) with a 67.2% completion percentage and an 8-1 TD-INT ratio. He’s a stud. A 45-year-old, 7-time Super Bowl champion All-American stud.
Complementing Brady is a solid defense which has allowed just 302.5 yards per contest to opposing offenses (7th-fewest in football). The Bucs are allowing just a tick over 17 points per game in 2022 – good for 5th in the NFL behind only Buffalo, San Fran, Dallas and Denver.
Chargers (4-2, 79.4%)
The Chargers put forth an eclectic mixture of top-notch offense and lackluster (sometimes comical) defense.
Quarterback Justin Herbert is a top-5 gunslinger in this league with 1,478 passing yards and 10 TDs through 6 weeks. Herbert’s 10-2 TD-INT ratio is better than that of both Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes.
LA’s feature back – Austin Ekeler – might be the #1 running back in the entire NFL with 349 rush yards, 261 receiving yards and 6 total touchdowns in his team’s first 6 contests.
Then there’s defense. The Chargers struggle to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks. They don’t generate many turnovers. They can’t get off the field on 3rd downs.
The Chargers allow the 9th-most yards per game to opposing offenses (368.2) and the 7th-most points per game (25.3) in the NFL.
Ravens (3-3, 77.9%)
Poor defense has held Baltimore back in 2022 – offsetting the elite play of quarterback Lamar Jackson. The dazzling, dual-threat Jackson is both a Heisman winner and NFL MVP. He ranks 3rd in passing touchdowns (13) this season and 5th in QBR (64.1).
Supplementing his throwing game are his legs. Jackson has rushed for 1,000 yards twice in his career and has 451 rush yards on 56 attempts through 6 games so far this year.
That aforementioned Ravens D? It’s bottom tier. Baltimore allows 371.5 yards per game to opposing offenses (25th in football) and gives up 23.5 points per contest (20th in football).
Baltimore allowed 42 points in a loss to Miami, 23 in a loss to Buffalo and 24 in a loss to the Giants. The Ravens are primed to take off and embark on a tear should they figure out the defensive side of the ball. Lamar is ballin’ as always but needs some help.
Chiefs (4-2, 74.0%)
Patrick Mahomes has suffered no decline in production due to the loss of Tyreek Hill. The Chiefs faithful have already forgotten about Cheetah. Out of sight, out of mind.
Mahomes’ 1,736 passing yards through 6 games rank 3rd in the NFL behind Josh Allen and Matt Ryan. Interestingly enough, those are the only 2 quarterbacks to deal Kansas City a loss in 2022 as the Chiefs lost 20-17 in Indy Week 3 and then 24-20 to Buffalo last week.
Mahomes’ favorite target is tight end Travis Kelce. The perennial All-Pro has hauled in 41 catches for 455 receiving yards and a league-leading 7 touchdowns.
As has been the case over the past several seasons, the Chiefs’ offense is legendary but their defense is serviceable … at best.
356.5 yards of offense allowed per game ranks 19th in the NFL. 24.8 points allowed per contest ranks 24th. This defense is in desperate need of big plays – accumulating just a single interception and 4 fumble recoveries through 6 games – the 5th-fewest takeaways in football.
Football Outsiders Playoff Contenders #9-14
14 teams qualify for the NFL postseason under the current NFL postseason rules. Here are the remaining postseason likelies according to the advanced projections at FO.
- 49ers (3-3, 67.5%)
- Giants (5-1, 59.8%)
- Bengals (3-3, 49.1%)
- Jets (4-2, 46.5%)
- Titans (3-2, 44.8%)
- Packers (3-3, 44.6%)
Kreighton loves sports, math, writing, and winning — he combines all of them as a writer for WagerBop. His favorite sports to review are MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAAF, and NCAABB.
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