NFL Sunday Guide: Week 6 Odds, Lines, and Predictions With MNF Spread Pick

We’ve got some fun NFL history to dish on today, including a tale that will make NFC East partisans grin, while others ask just what’s been wrong with the NFL’s other several divisions for 75+ years.

But there’s no grinning to be had over WagerBop’s Week 5 NFL predictions, which were lame enough to produce the site’s first markedly-losing record in pro or college football for a weekend of the young season.

Are there any special tactics we’ll try to break the trend? Not in Week 6, for a simple losing day against the NFL odds isn’t a trend – it’s a trap. We’re having a successful season, so the last thing WagerBop will do is change its football handicapping over 1 bad Sunday.

But the bookmakers of Sin City seem to have whiffed on a bunch of good Sundays for this week’s underdogs – definitely the focus of a week without too many reliable ATS favorites playing vs some inflated lines. It’s finally time to take the Dallas Cowboys seriously, for instance, and yet an NFL media that’s taken 7-8-1 Cowboys “contenders” seriously appears “seriously” scared to take 2022’s Silver Star roster (or its record) at face-value.

It could lead to a pick that’s as profitable as it is popular – ATS on the NFL’s most iconic franchise. But first, here’s a recap of a not-so-iconic game in the Mile High City.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (Sunday, October 16)

The Colts and Broncos’ recent Thursday Night Football game will go down among the worst ever produced by a flaky TNF brand. Despite dozens of prolonged drives and abundant chances for the Broncos and Colts to score TDs last Thursday, the besieged clubs played to a rather sorry 12-9 finish at Empower Field before an aghast crowd. When Denver finally attempted to open things up and seal the deal with a surprise TD, QB Russell Wilson promptly threw an INT in the end zone that ruined Denver’s winning opportunity.

Indy’s paltry (-134) moneyline odds to win against visiting Jacksonville on Sunday can be accredited to more than the sloppiness of the TNF stinker. Jonathan Taylor, the Colts’ superstar tailback, sat out against Denver with injury following a hindered 42-yard performance in Week 4 against the victorious Tennessee Titans.

In Taylor’s absence, Colts’ rushers did manage to plow for 100+ yards against the Broncos, but the yardage came between the 20-yard lines and failed to appropriately set up QB Matt Ryan’s play-action pass attempts.

The Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5) have begun 2022-23 with a 2-3 record that includes an impressive win over the favored Los Angeles Chargers. There is no getting around the “early rematch” angle of Indianapolis vs Jacksonville, considering that much of Indy’s unexpected concern this fall was pressed into ink in Week 2 when the Jaguars shut out the Colts 24-0. Given how Jacksonville QB Trevor Lawrence’s offense has declined since then, there could be an argument that Sunday’s point spread doesn’t give the Colts enough credit to potentially rebound against a team with even less momentum especially having manufactured almost nothing but turnovers in last week’s loss to Houston. The Thursday Night Football fooleries were played-out for a national audience, while Lawrence’s debatably worse day at EverBank Field was a simple regional broadcast. Following Week 5, fewer people made fun of Jacksonville, but the Colts and Jaguars were equally poor with the pigskin.

FanDuel’s cautious O/U (41.5) may still be too high of a total-points handicap. Taylor is practicing while clearly not in the best of shape to play on Sunday. But if he plays, he’ll be featured by the Colts almost out of obligation in a similar way that losing L.A. Rams teams of the 1990s handed off to Jerome Bettis devotedly in spite of the RB’s lack of game-changing runs. The Jaguars’ play-calling could take a similar turn as Jacksonville seeks to defend Lawrence from further mistakes and turnovers on late downs.

WagerBop’s Pick: Under (41.5)

Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants (Sunday, October 16)

WagerBop has supported Baltimore’s approach to NFL offense at every turn through the last 2 to 3 years. John Harbaugh’s team, in the end, is doing something different, which is nice in a professional league that’s often included 2 or 3 unique playbooks and dozens upon dozens of copycats. Nevertheless, we cannot let our “sentimental” feelings about Lamar Jackson’s offense overcome our duty to help the novice NFL gambler. Baltimore’s (-6) point spread for a challenging road game makes a great beginner’s example of a too-wide spread on a battle that could finish within 1-2 points.

At 4-1, New York is the “forgotten” NFC East contender, coming off a neutral-site game in which in the 2nd half the Big Blue thrashed the Green Bay Packers. That’s not a 6-point underdog, not against a visitor relying on PK Justin Tucker kicking winners to beat mid-tier AFC rivals consistently. The Giants may even be a true favorite to triumph.

WagerBop’s Pick: Giants (+210) or ATS (+6)

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday, October 16)

It may be expected for the point spread on a game between the NFL’s #1 and #2 ranked teams to fall around (+2.5). The only interesting thing this time in a game thought to be evenly matched is the “plus” spread is not a simple home-venue nod to the host team. Rather, this Sunday it’s the home-standing Kansas City Chiefs who are the slight underdogs against Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills, the latter team being a 4-to-1 favorite to win Super Bowl 57 and a (-142) moneyline favorite at Arrowhead Stadium.

The Bills began the campaign by belting the defending NFL champion Los Angeles Rams, but soon after suffered its first loss to upstart Miami. Buffalo destroyed the struggling Steelers 38-3 last weekend. But, readers should take note of recent injuries to Xavier Rhodes, Tremaine Edmunds, and Jordan Poyer, which could hobble Buffalo’s defense, as well as the Week 3 season-ending injury offensive tackle Tommy Doyle suffered.

The Kansas City Chiefs have obviously been “downgraded” by the betting public after suffering a dreadful 1st half in Week 5 against Las Vegas. But just because so many bookmakers had a home-team microscope’s outlook on the Raiders-Chiefs game doesn’t mean they should to overreact to a single result, particularly after QB Pat Mahomes once again rallied his team to a divisional success. Also, no NFL team of the 2020s has been free of bizarre lapses on offense, defense, special teams, or every unit at once. For instance, it is less than a calendar year removed from Buffalo’s “baseball score” loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars. It strains to reason to think no sportsbook is shrewd enough to envision the Kansas City Chiefs were looking ahead to the Bills just a little, in spite of divisional grudges.

WagerBop’s Pick: Chiefs ATS (+2.5)

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday, October 16)

The NFL can insist that their “Flex” scheduling for national games isn’t ready to debut until teams have played 10+ games in the season. WagerBop knows the real motivations behind The Shield’s best 2 teams (Kansas City and Buffalo) being scheduled to toil in the afternoon in Week 6, while prime time is for the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles. The fan base of the NFC East is so deep-rooted that the league misses no occasion to put marquee Cowboys-vs-NFC East match-ups on evening TV.

Ponder that before the era of the internet, often an entire “NFL Today” pregame show would be dedicated to the Dallas Cowboys and their upcoming divisional opponent. And then just prior to the local station’s own crew preempting the Cowboys with the Bears or the Lions, Greg Gumbel or another CBS magnate would appear on-screen and apologize – yes, apologize – for “contractually” not being allowed to show the NFC East kickoff. Loyal hometown fans were rightfully affronted, but there were enough fans of the iconic division in every time zone that many others were genuinely upset not to have America’s Team.

Not to worry, Philadelphia (-6.5) vs Dallas won’t be another prime-time “stinker” that the NFL forces its viewers to tolerate, just for the profit of an old rivalry’s ratings. In 2022-23, the Eagles are “crashing” the NFL party with an energetic offense and swift, physical, resourceful football on all 3 units. In Week 5 QB Jalen Hurts’ dual threat was slowed by a surprisingly stout Arizona defense, but bookmakers are still persuaded that the Alabama-Oklahoma product can hind-strap an opposing backup QB.

The Cowboys are only a game behind the unbeaten Eagles at 4-1, but Sin City handicappers and professional analysts alike seem a bit shy to rank Dallas highly even as the franchise gets it done with starting QB Dak Prescott on the shelf and a litany of OL injuries. Dallas’ underdog point spread of nearly a full TD + XP exemplifies that the Cowboys and Eagles rivalry isn’t always expected to produce a blockbuster like some other clashes. Visualize a Giants-Eagles fight for 1st place, handicapped with a full TD spread!

QB Cooper Rush has done a skillful job behind center in Prescott’s absence. Dallas is coming off a commanding 22-10 win over the defending Super Bowl champs in which “backup” running back Tony Pollard showed to be as treacherous as Ezekiel Elliott. Under the right circumstances either team could pull-away and win an emotional Sunday Night Football bout by 2-3 TDs. But there’s no excuse for the point spread to be so generous as Philadelphia’s upstart group tests the unfamiliar waters of a division lead.

WagerBop’s Pick: Cowboys (+6.5)

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (Monday Night Football)

Another “B-flight” division rivalry from the AFC West, Denver and Los Angeles, could produce more of an A-list game for Monday Night Football than the NFL’s other prime-time brands have been enduring from time to time. Raiders vs Chiefs may be a rumble on the quad, and Broncos-Raiders can create “NCAA” levels of disdain among fans, but the Los Angeles Chargers change cities, jerseys, and the team’s style of play on the gridiron often enough that Denver fans may just be giddy to have a half-familiar rival still on the coast.

That may be the only joyful thought for Denver (+5.5), a 5-point underdog that could feel like a 50-point ‘dog after falling to Indianapolis in one of the most horrible prime-time games in NFL history. Analysts are finally noticing what this scroll indicated in September, which is Russell Wilson and the Broncos are lining up for 1st-down-and-goal like it’s 4th-and-12 on the 50-yard line, a fault that lies not with the QB but with HC Nathaniel Hackett’s game-planning. The “Bolts” are also notorious to bolt away from simple Red Zone strategies and game-plan a few finesse 3rd-and-goal looks for QB Justin Herbert. But the Chargers can implement those plays more skillfully, and Herbert can claim 4 out of 5 quality performances since Week 1, a record that’s light-years away from Wilson’s disappointing season.

WagerBop’s Pick: Chargers (-5.5)