CFB Betting Lines in Week 7: Best FanDuel Spreads and Kansas vs Oklahoma O/U Pick

WagerBop enjoyed the benefit of another “shadow” pigskin pick this week, a Wednesday night prediction on Marshall-Louisiana that this handicapper dished elsewhere, but not on WB.

Like a “coin flip” pick before the Super Bowl, an unpublished (or semi-published) prediction can either warn or warm an investor who’s looking to get into the right frame-of-mind for a successful day. As for this college football week, I can only hope that I’m not kicking myself as badly on Sunday morning as I am now, after recommending only an ATS pick on a clearly-dominant “10-point underdog” in the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns.

Sure, we technically got the pick right, but a well-matched game with 3-to-1 odds on an underdog doesn’t come along every day. Marshall’s original (-7.5) point spread was a mistake by sportsbooks that still overvalue the Thundering Herd based on September’s upset of Notre Dame, and the betting public made it worse (or better, for those bucking the trend) by driving the spread close to double-digits as the kickoff loomed.

Marshall’s leadership just hasn’t done a terrific job following up on the momentum from what could have been a seminal victory. The Thundering Herd could have been forgiven for suffering the “Notre Dame hangover” forecast on our FBS scroll after losing 34-31 to Bowling Green in overtime on September 17th, but not for falling apart on offense and dropping another ugly outcome to Troy in the next outing. Louisiana-Lafayette’s record may have been “inferior” coming into Wednesday, but ballgames are contested along a continuum – not in-sum of the past.

The underdog – moneyline or ATS – is always the right pick when there’s actually a 50/50 chance that either team will win. Bookmakers are known to ignore the national buzz as much as possible, but after seeing Marshall show up unprepared in Week 7, it seems more impossible that odds-makers have done so.

Heck, supposing a team beat Notre Dame, Georgia, or Clemson and then went 0-and-6 for the next 2 months, would they still be a TD-favorite against the spread in winter based on that single inspired day against a Top 10 brand? If so, then Appalachian State should be favored in every Sun Belt scrum this year, even if Boone suffers a gridiron catastrophe worse than its SEC victim. But as we’ve already witnessed, when a conference gets better, the WHOLE damned conference often gets better.

Thankfully, we’ve got a further batch of succinct, macro-analytical picks to go on the rest of this week’s FBS action, without too many angles that can be counted as subtler than “Marshall is overrated and beating UND isn’t everything.” Sometimes, the worst (best) odds just leap off the board.

Temple Owls at Central Florida Knights (Thursday, October 13th)

It has been said over the past few weeks that the ACC’s lower tiers must have weakened, because (among other things) Louisville and Georgia Tech were outscored collectively by “little” UCF. Not only does that popular take disregard Central Florida’s remarkable national success as a brand, but it shows a lack of awareness of how 2022’s non-conference schedule has played out overall. Those thinking that a program like UCF can’t ever make noise again, now that the Southeastern Conference is back where it belongs and the Knights still play in the Group-of-5, should be shown highlight-reels of this year’s Arkansas-Missouri State and Marshall-Notre Dame battles until they offer a word of recalcitrance. Let us not forget the “coup de grace” of App State thrashing the top-10 again in September.

Last weekend, UCF produced a punishing 22-point win over SMU to improve its record to 4-1, and in Week 7 stands as a (-23.5) favorite over visiting Temple.

With all that being the case, we are not certain that this is the right time to laud UCF “minus 4 touchdowns” against its American Athletic Conference adversaries. Temple hung 30 points on Louisiana and battled vastly-improved Rutgers to the finish line in a 16-14 loss. When the leaves turn league games become tighter and more anxious, making it strange that the sportsbook has left so much room for a back-door Temple cover.

WagerBop’s Pick: Temple ATS (+23.5)

Navy Midshipmen at Southern Methodist Mustangs (Friday, October 14th)

The point spread at FanDuel Sportsbook is also set too liberally for SMU (-13.5) against the visiting Naval Academy underdogs. Not only is SMU coming off a defeat that made the Mustang defense look particularly porous, but Navy is also pursuing the opposite of coach Ken Niumatalolo’s strategy when Annapolis struggled during the formative years of star quarterbacks Malcolm Perry and Ricky Dobbs.

Instead of letting the offense take lumps while attempting to develop another speed-demon TD king behind center, the Middies are going with a crew of quarterbacks who are solid, dependable role-players without anywhere close to the performance-ceiling of the program’s past QBs. But against pedestrian defenses, that makes Navy’s offense more treacherous to fact in the short term, even as Mids rivals later this fall could make great picks ATS…if they’re coming in hotter than Southern Methodist after a 3-touchdown defeat.

WagerBop’s Pick: Navy (+13.5)

Penn State Nittany Lions at Michigan Wolverines (Saturday, October 15th)

Is WagerBop turning into an old-fashioned comic strip (Underdog, Underdog, and more Underdog!), or do we actually like any point-spread favorite’s picks on the weekend after forecasting – in the early-going of Week 7 – nothing but ‘dogs to bark?

Try Michigan (-6.5) to cover against visiting Penn State, at least so long as the point spread stays tighter than a full TD + XP. An early Saturday kickoff can create “eye-squinting” flatness for a favored team, but that is not exactly what happened in Week 6 to Michigan in the opening half of its game against Indiana.

The timing was excellent for Indiana to make hay for a while against the visiting Wolverines, however, the low score of UM-Indiana has users cautious of picking Michigan to trounce PSU, or beat the O/U line.

For Penn State, the timing is not as rosy. Happy Valley has labored on offense, and did not validate a 5-0 record or top-10 ranking upon not scoring a TD against Northwestern in last weekend’s anxious 17-7 conquest. Michigan will be more contented opening up in the 1st half in the Big House than the Wolverines were when visiting the Hoosiers.

WagerBop’s Pick: Michigan ATS (-6.5)

Kansas Jayhawks at Oklahoma Sooners (Saturday, October 15th)

News flash for bookmakers—fast and skilled FBS players do not just run for TDs automatically. They must be in the right frame of mind and be given a worthwhile game plan, which then leads to scoring opportunities. FanDuel’s inflated (64.5) Over/Under line on Oklahoma-Kansas seems to disregard that OU has officially hit bedrock and is in the process of a program-wide shakeup after last week’s pathetic loss to Texas.

But not only is Sin City anticipating 65 points from a meeting in which last week modest favorite Oklahoma was shut-out on the gridiron, but the O/U also overlooks that KU’s watershed season is based largely on an outstanding ground game. Jayhawks’ best shot to beat Oklahoma is to control the ball by running. OU’s run-blocking was a zillion times better than its performance against the triumphant Longhorns on passing downs. If play-callers react as they should, the Sooners and the Jayhawks could run sugar huddles on every single series and even then possibly not score 7+ combined touchdowns.

WagerBop’s Pick: Under (64.5)

Maryland Terrapins at Indiana Hoosiers (Saturday, October 15th)

The midday slate in Week 7 is once again barren of top-5 and top-10 pairings, except for Alabama taking on nonentity Tennessee in an unpredictable mid-afternoon SEC competition. Look to Indiana (+320) instead, which could possible have been worn down in the 2nd half against Michigan, but the Hoosiers’ valiant performance deserves a more optimistic follow-up moneyline against a flaky Saturday visitor in Maryland.

WagerBop’s Pick: Indiana (+320)

Stanford Cardinal at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Saturday, October 15th)

FBS speculators face a paradoxical challenge of macro-analysis on Saturday night when Notre Dame (-850) hosts Stanford as a (-16.5) point-spread pick. Notre Dame has played “down and up” to the opposition in 2022-23 so much so that UND lost to Marshall merely a game after terrifying Ohio State for 3+ quarters. In the meanwhile, Stanford does not seem to have enough depth to be able to stop favored Pac-12 teams from scoring “tack-on” TDs and covering ATS even if the Cardinal battles nobly for 3 quarters and change.

Blow-outs happen because there is a poised, confident side playing against a browbeaten team to which bad things keep happening. UND has not proved that it can make enough “bad-ness” occur on the field to triumph over iconic rivals by 20+ points. Stanford’s traditional style of game planning is a good match-up against the Fighting Irish.

WagerBop’s Pick: Stanford ATS (+16.5)