Premier League Picks: Matchweek 9 Odds and Recommended Sunday-Monday Wagers

I play a lot of virtual golf while writing (it beats punctuation as a fun way to break-up the sentences) and last weekend, there was a fellow in my foursome who just couldn’t get it together. He kept letting his shot timer run out, failing to concede 1-foot putts, and that sort of thing.

Finally, someone asked, “what’s wrong with you buddy?” and the player simply replied “Foden.”

It’s not that I wasn’t aware Phil Foden was a footballer for Manchester City. (Maybe if the guy had said “Haaland,” instead, it would have taken better hold.) But it was so out-of-place during a video-game round full of golf lingo. Often, people with issues doing their part in the virtual golf game give chat-responses that seem to make no sense anyway.

I instinctively checked to see if the player was from Slovenia and perhaps “foden” was Slovenian for “coffee.” But his profile indicated he was from the good old Estados Unidos. A few minutes later, it dawned on me – it was time to wake up (literally) and check out what Man City was doing.

City (-390) did more than hold serve with a thrilling 6-3 win over Manchester United on Sunday, a match for which the final result could go down among the most deceptive in Manchester derby lore. 6-3 implies some type of a corker in which Sky Blues’ indomitable attack out-lasted a Ronaldo-rally from the Red Devils attack. But a simple glance at the match footage belies such an impression, as United turned out to be so out-classed from the start that manager Erik ten Hag barely found a suitable use on the pitch for CR7. City led 6-1 after 4/5ths of the bout as Foden and Erling Haaland combined for history-making dual hat tricks. Anthony Martial’s pair of consolation tallies for Red Devils came so late in the proceedings that announcers expressed surprise when Martial carried the football quickly to midfield to restart a mercifully-ending half.

Arsenal’s lead on the table may be fated to disappear, at least over the long term. Man City’s depth is such that inevitable injuries will tax Gunners’ lineup more than Sky Blues, even if multiple stars on Pep Guardiola’s 22-deep roster happen to fall. Still, it’s helping Arsenal’s championship betting action that Gunners have a useful 1-point head start, in addition to an international schedule that could be less punishing than what Man City must endure before and following the 2022 FIFA World Cup. To wit, this week’s UEFA Europa League schedule pairs Arsenal against a club called FK Bodø/Glimt, which isn’t an American charter-school cooperative, but rather a team from Norway that’s well representative of EPL lineups’ easy path in the 2nd-tier UEFA event. Manchester City, conversely, must face Borussia Dortmund and Sevilla in Champions League action.

Is Arsenal a solid pick to defeat Liverpool this weekend? We’re not sure, but Gunners’ back-line could flourish against a very anxious team.

First let’s look at a slightly less-hyped kickoff at Selhurst Park.

Crystal Palace vs Leeds United (Sunday, October 9th)

Crystal Palace is generating an uncanny mirror-image of what they inspired last fall in soccer markets. Alternatively, Eagles are having a very diverse kind of autumn, yet the gambling odds are remaining about the same as they have always been. It is natural to overlook that Palace stormed out of the gate in 2021-22 with a vigorous goal-scoring barrage that belied the club’s reputation in league play for cautious, precise defending and sparse tallies. Bookies kept an eye on the team’s historical outcomes and did not exaggerate O/U totals or brand Palace as a money-line favorite against top adversaries. Sure enough, the outcomes at Selhurst Park reflected the pessimistic forecast after time had gone by.

Eagles, a (+110) favorite to overtake visiting Leeds United, has not gotten off as perilous of an inauguration this cycle. Crystal Palace is dangerously close to downgrade on the Premier League table at 17th with only 6 total points and 8 total goals. Odds-makers, however, are once again mulishly insisting that Eagles will regress to the team’s water-line.

It is possible that the club’s recent 1-goal defeat to Chelsea was not the best laboratory to use in handicapping Eagles against weedier clubs on the board. Blues allowed Palace an early 1-nil lead in an English Premier League fixture on Saturday, surely sparking the ire of followers who are cynical of a coaching change improving the diminished back-line quality of Chelsea. Nonetheless, the favorites strengthened on defense and posted a comeback 2-1 victory thanks to the dramatic winner from new striker Aubameyang and Conor Gallagher.

Peacocks (+240) must also boost their unstable defending in 2022-23 after poor back-line execution nearly forfeiting the chance to return to the EPL. Having taken some steps to solidify on all 3 levels this season, Leeds United’s ledger is still littered with incidents of porous positioning and bundles of opposing strikes in short periods. Peacocks played decent enough without the ball to shock Pensioners with a clean sheet in August. However, later fell 5-2 to Brentford after allowing a mid-match surge of Bees goals that was interrupted only by Peacock’s winger Luis Sinisterra’s tally in added minutes of the opening half.

In Peacock’s most recent appearance Sinisterra was hit with a red-card penalty, and Leeds had a scoreless draw with visiting Villains of Aston Villa that makes even more FanDuel users shy of picking Leeds to win. Therefore, the solid pick to win is Palace.

WagerBop’s Picks: Crystal Palace (+110) and Under (2.5) (+100)

West Ham United vs Fulham F.C. (Sunday, October 9th)

Is it possible the world’s favorite new wrestling organizer (granted, there are not too many in the limelight) will flourish in body-slamming the English Premier League this season? Fulham F.C. has played solid in the opening rounds that the club has now become a shorter-odds pick to finish top-half than to be relegated back to English Championship. Fulham has produced 11 points from 8 fixtures, though Cottagers were enormously embarrassed by striker Callum Wilson and Magpies after taking a red card early in the 1-4 loss last weekend. That is a positive angle behind West Ham’s (-135) money-line odds to trounce Cottagers (+370) on Sunday despite the Hammers season not going nearly as well as supporters hoped.

Hammers might have profited as much as any Premier League side from the gap in September action. But West Ham still has a Europa Conference League schedule challenging the team’s reserves. A positive 2-0 outcome against Wolves on Matchweek 8 is tempered by a previous 0-1 loss to Everton F.C., an equally-dodgy opposing side.

WagerBop’sPick: Fulham ATS (+1) (+105)

Arsenal F.C. vs Liverpool (Sunday, October 9th)

Arsenal has come quite a way, demonstrated by an astonishing favorites’ money-line market to defeat Liverpool on Sunday. In fact, Gunners’ early-season form has been so remarkable that Premier League speculators are beginning to crack just a bit in the face of Gunners’ points on the table, as opposed to simply nodding to favorite Man City 1-to-4.

Spurs were devastated by Arsenal in a high-profile Saturday match, overcoming a Harry Kane penalty goal with an attack that fashioned 500-or-so precise passes, 9 shots-on-target, and 3 tallies. Gunners’ conquest helped to significantly shorten Arsenal’s odds to win the English Premier League.

Reds (+165) are a paltry 9th on the domestic league table. What must concern Premier League odds investors, even more, is that the team’s international form is improving while Liverpool’s efforts against UK opposition persist to be defective and insipid. Liverpool, for example, responded well to a trademark early-round UEFA Champions League loss, in this case, Napoli conquering Liverpool 4-1, over the past weeks adding 2 heartening victories in Group Stage action. However not only does Mohamed Salah’s side have just a single point (from a draw at Goodison Park) to show for a rather despondent September among English footballers, Reds returned to EPL action vs Seagulls with a terrible 3-3 final.

Speculators many times react to the big-time emphasis on a marquee FIFA or UEFA fixture by bringing down the O/U handicap and anticipating the very best back-line play from European advocates. In domestic football’s wild world, though, the action on a buzz-worthy match like Arsenal-Liverpool can generate the opposite outcome. FanDuel Sportsbook’s goal-total betting odds of (-152) on Over (2.5) goals scored divulge a blogosphere full of high-scoring estimates this weekend for Gunners and Reds. It is noteworthy that the teams’ back lines have created 4 clean sheets across all competitions in the rivalry’s last 6 meetings.

WagerBop’s Pick: Under (2.5) (+128)

Everton F.C. vs Manchester United (Sunday, October 9th)

Sky Blues, the defending EPL champions, did more than hold serve with an exhilarating 6-3 win last Sunday over Man United, a final result that could go down among the most deceiving in Manchester derby lore. The 6-3 score infers a corker in which Sky Blues’ resolute attack out-lasted a Ronaldo-rally from the Red Devils offense. But in truth, Man United was so out-classed that Erik ten Hag barely found a appropriate use for CR7.

Citizens led 6-1 after 4/5ths of the fixture as Phil Foden and Erling Haaland combined for history-making dual hat tricks. Anthony Martial’s pair of consolation goals for Red Devils came so late in the minutes that announcers were surprised when Martial quickly carried the football to midfield to restart a mercifully-ending bout.

The league’s surprisingly long pause undoubtedly did United’s organization more harm than good. Red Devils form was just starting to round into shape when the schedule came to a standstill, followed by Man City’s disheartening beatdown of Red Devils just as the United schedule gets tremendously busy in a short time. Meanwhile, Everton’s (+270) underdog odds in the bout, belies a form that’s been good enough to stay unbeaten since 8/13.

Toffeemen have profited from a feasible slate, and can’t be hyped as a live underdog against Liverpool, Man City, Chelsea, and other aristocrats under normal conditions. The minus-odds money-line favorites from Manchester United (-105) have played down-to-the-competition in many appearances against flimsy lineups in recent memory, including in the last few months 0-4 losses to Brighton and Brentford, as well as September 8th’s 1-nil defeat to Real Sociedad in a way-too-rough UEFA Europa League jaunt. Man United must lick their wounds and then start over, which is not a great scenario for a betting pick that is 1-to-1.

WagerBop’s Pick: Everton and Draw (Double Chance Prop Bet) (-135)

Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa (Monday, October 10th)

EPL matchday 8 capper between Manchester City and Man United was broadcast around the workd to billions of fans and casual viewers. The low-key meeting this coming week between Nottingham and Villa is alternatively a match for the “hardcore” English Premier League speculator, and of course for both clubs’ supporters’ war bands.

WagerBop has postulated that Aston Villa’s “blue-collar” status leads to overly optimistic, even mispriced odds. That hypothesis is tossed out by London’s vigilant view of Monday’s stand-alone kickoff, with Villains drawing just a (+115) money-line number against Nottingham’s 2-to-1 odds to surprise the established brand of the Premier League.

Villa’s not crushing the Premier League with 2 wins in 8 bouts. However, the opposing hosts are having by-far more problems than any other 2022-2023 newcomer to the EPL, making Nottingham the probable “Norwich City” of this season. In other words, that’s a team that becomes a heavy underdog against any top-tier side that has quality, depth, or momentum. Tricky Trees is FanDuel’s top “favorite” – not good news – to suffer relegation at (-250) futures odds. Nottingham has been chopped down 6 times in 8 bouts since the season started, losing most recently to an ugly 0-4 score at Leicester.

Many may wonder why the modest odds on Villa. Villains’ 2022-23 form can be thought of as a “poor man’s Manchester United” in the fall of 2022, as the team crafts moments of brilliance against top opposition while failing to earn enough points from vulnerable enemies. Villa started September with a terrific 1-1 draw against Man City, and then skillfully discharged the pressing forwards of Southampton in a 1-0 win on 9/16 over Saints. But a comparable weekend lineup failed to score and defeat vulnerable West Ham weeks earlier and to validate that such syndromes die stubbornly, could not score with the 11-on-10 advantage for 40-plus minutes in an 0-0 draw in the last appearance with Leeds.

Nottingham is partially familiar with a team that is performed in the past few years within English Championship. But there are only so many veteran “tricks” to showcase when getting into the box throughout a match that will be spent in midfield mostly. FanDuel Sportsbook offers near 1-to-1 odds on standard Under (2.5) total-goals picks for Nottingham-Villa, complicating the fact that a despairing host team could be about to batten down the hatches and play for a 1-0 victory, or any old type of victory.

WagerBop’s Pick: Under (2.5) (-126)