Manchester Derby Prop Bet: The Best Betting Line on Sunday’s Corker Plus 4 More EPL Picks

An exceptionally long September pause has helped to “reset” Premier League betting lines for the pre-World Cup stretch of 2022. In a happenstance that’s become old news to Premiership loyalists by now, the English Premier League schedule was decimated by tragedy and UEFA competition in September. Only a scant handful of matches were played following a full 6th round of play on Labor Day weekend, and none in London.

What’s the best gambling strategy for a league full of fresh legs and new tactics, at a time when the schedule was supposed to be bearing down on lower-quality sides? Will it be as if Matchweek 1 were upon us again, thanks to the “friendly” nature of play in the 2022 Nations League round-robin kickoffs? Will minnows swim again only to fall back by Boxing Day?

Perhaps, but the way the odds are offered on Premier League bouts this weekend, it’s as if bookmakers think last year’s minnows are about to erupt with goals again. Shouldn’t we be looking for new underdogs instead of looking to West Ham and Crystal Palace to make noise in the autumn again? Hopefully, we can grab a few favorable picks at swell odds until sportsbooks recall that it’s not 2021-22 anymore.

But before we deal with any minnows, here’s a look at 2 very big fish meeting this Saturday.

Arsenal F.C. vs Tottenham Hotspur (Sat. October 1st)

Tottenham and Arsenal have long and short-term gamblers in disharmony. Or, maybe it is that they are in agreement, but interested in different markets.

Tottenham rivals Arsenal with (+1300) odds in FanDuel‘s odds to win the next domestic title, compared to the latter team’s (+1100) long-term odds. Spurs were among just a fistful of English Premier League clubs that got to bedazzle speculators mid-September, as teams otherwise ceased for international play and the passing of Queen Elizabeth II.

Gunners do remain in front of Citizens on the table, but dropped [oints to United at the beginning of September, and face a demanding schedule that could deplete Arsenal’s back line as City deals with the perils of international play. Tottenham trounced Leicester City by 4 goals in a high-profile showdown while Gunners have not played a Premier League fixture since falling to Man United. But then, when it comes to Saturday’s early kickoff at Emirates Stadium, FanDuel’s soccer sharks are all about the current leaders of the EPL.

Arsenal is a (-105) moneyline fave over Tottenham (+270) in an off-kilter market that disavows Lilywhites’ and Gunners’ comparable odds elsewhere. The home territory benefit of Arsenal is a key angle behind the teams’ dissimilar odds to be victorious. The position of most punters is that Arsenal’s “long-term” concerns are not any sort of problem on Matchweek 8 with footballers so well reinvigorated coming in, albeit with the likely exception of Tottenham’s Harry Kane, who is anticipated to contribute each and every time that Three Lions takes the pitch in an international match. Lilywhites’ fans are also woeful that club-teammate Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg may have aided in the absence of defender Ivan Perisic. Perisic clipped in a clash with the former Tottenham midfielder in an otherwise fairly friendly Nations League fixture. Kane’s club is believed to have healthier winning chances when Spurs host Gunners in winter. For now, the commanding Arsenal starting-11 keeps a big ML edge intact for a match with lively (-142) odds on Over (2.5) total goals.

Our forecast is that the match’s moneyline market might level out to a degree by Saturday morning. Fans of American football are well aware of the “pregame sigh” that happens once gamers spend all week investing in a favored Southeastern Conference team to cover a significant spread line. Then they see the jam-packed stadium in pregame, and know that 2 extremely strong programs are about to give it their all, and that their pick should have been the underdog at considerable odds. On Saturday, that is just how it might go for high-risk Arsenal speculators, as Gunners did not look so great on their last Premiership date.

WagerBop’s Pick: Tottenham (+270)

Southampton F.C. vs Everton F.C. (Sat. October 1st)

A kickoff on Saturday sees visiting Everton F.C. (+230) going against punters’ preferred Southampton. Saints vs Toffeemen is drawing less optimistic (-108) odds to produce 3-plus total tallies, and there are some hard angles behind the lines on O/U picks at FanDuel.

Saints had low-scoring defeats to Wolverhampton and Villa, and went into the quiet QEII pause very unfavorably. The only circumstances in which Southampton would be preferred over a legacy team such as Toffees is that Everton F.C. was nearly downgraded in 2021-22, and has thus begun the 2022-23 domestic cycle looking to be just as sad.

Everton won its first 3-point bout of the season in a harsh battle against West Ham before stopping. Even though Toffees played with caution when in possession, Everton continues to generate easy-to-defend passes and opponents find triumph on counteroffensives.

The underdogs, however, have firmed up on the back-line around the team’s trademark goalkeeping, only to be in jeopardy down the home stretch if Jordan Pickford leaves for MUFC due to a possible David de Gea move. Everton defended against Liverpool solidly enough to clinch a clean sheet early this month. It makes us think manager Frank Lampard will choose to build around the club’s strengths and try to add at least a point from Saturday’s road match, instead of testing the Saints’ press with forward numbers.

FanDuel’s O/U lines for the match are guarded – but maybe not guarded enough.

WagerBop’s Pick: Under (2.5)

Crystal Palace vs Chelsea F.C. (Sat. October 1st)

English Premier League specialists know that the (-120) or nearly “1-to-1” risk on Chelsea money-line picks this weekend are benevolent of London, at least in a scenario where a top-4 side plays all but the most the league’s ginned-up teams of the middle tier. But there are signs that Chelsea’s impetuous switch to Graham Potter from Thomas Tuchel is not producing a short-term spurt of energy, as a change in the ranks often does.

Liverpool’s (+700) and Arsenal’s (+1100) odds to triumph the Premier League could stay far more rosy than Chelsea’s (+3200) or 32-to-1 mark, even though Pensioners needed to use the extra training period to get up to speed on new tactics with some level of confidence. Potter has been receiving rather diverse reviews after debuting with a 1-1 draw against an inferior league team, RB Salzburg of Austria.

Could CPFC play the part of a “live” underdog to pick at 3-to-1 odds? It can be said that the Eagles have pushed through a demanding early-season ledger which now includes an ominous draw with Liverpool. In fact, Crystal Palace is to be revered for not falling to any teams except Arsenal and Man City since the start of the new competition cycle in early August. However, Saturday’s hosts have only created a single point-per-match, and stand in a modest 16th place after 6 fixtures, without any sign of history repeating itself in the form of last year’s early-round outpouring of goals.

WagerBop’s Pick: Chelsea (-120)

AFC Bournemouth vs Brentford F.C. (Sat. October 1st)

The odds-on “favorite” in upside-down relegation markets is still Bournemouth, but Cherries are just a little juicier on the betting board after taking 4 points from 2 kickoffs following Liverpool’s 9-0 disgrace of the squad. Wanderers earning a 0-0 draw at Vitality Stadium on August 31st most likely represents the best Wolverhampton’s failing lineup can hope for on the road, nevertheless, Bournemouth’s 3-2 win over Nottingham on 9/3 is the kind of outcome that helps a newly-promoted Premier League team win the relegation fight against other “bubble” clubs. Therefore, why are Cherries merely a (+240) long-shot against Brentford, with the latter drawing 1-to-1 odds to win on enemy ground?

It possibly could be that Brentford is this season’s English Premier League “minnow” that swims rapidly, and then hangs around on the top half of the table far longer than its depth of quality should permit. Man United was defeated by Bees 4-0 in a truly marvelous late-summer league outcome, before again flashing a weighty attack on September 3rd whilst trouncing Peacocks 5-2. But overall, Bees have stepped up to the challenge in David vs Goliath style matches more often than winning on the money-line against so-called “beatable” enemies. It was with a lucky comeback that the Bees began the cycle to carve out a draw at Leicester City, and let-down losses followed to Everton and Crystal Palace following Brentford’s high-profile upset over Manchester United.

WagerBop’s Pick: Draw (+230)

Manchester City vs Manchester United (Sun. October 2nd)

The Manchester derby has hardly seen more unbalanced betting from punters than can be observed in the 2020s. City is the favorite to win at (-310) or about 1-to-3 money-line odds while visiting Manchester United ais drawing very long lines of (+750) to win, (+460) to produce a draw, and (+240) odds to cover a (+1) goal spread.

A high-powered match with tons of scoring opportunities is expected. Betting risk on O/U picks is set at just (+114) for a Manchester derby outcome of Over (3.5) total goals.

Perhaps over the long-term, no Premier League team may be poised to match Man City in the points race for a Premiership crown yet again. That analysis, of course, is in full view of Man City having given up 5 combined goals to Newcastle and CPFC in the opening rounds of EPL play, and acquiring a paltry single-point draw against Aston Villa on the road. But the late summer schedule in 2022 of Man City just may have been designed by the soccer gods, as Sky Blues relished a favorable UEFA Champions League opener against Sevilla before to this week’s key match at City of Manchester Stadium with Tottenham.

Red Devils have not played a league match since capping a stretch of 12 quick Premier League points that included the 3-1 win over Arsenal. Doubt that Ronaldo’s club can pick up momentum again has increased ever since Manchester United began to stumble in the round robin of the 2022-23 UEFA Europa League. MUFC started with a lethargic 0-1 loss to Real Soliedad, then made 12 fouls and took only 4 shots-on-target in what should have been a more polished 2-0 win over European outlaw-side Sheriff Tiraspol.

While Red Devils’ worth in almost all competitions has been disappointing for several seasons, the fact is (+750) odds are too long for a club with a prizefighter’s chance to beat a Sky Blues team still finding their groove.

Should CR7’s boot make the unpredictable match a no-brainer underdog choice? Or is a drawn outcome more likely to give a bigger cash payout, in spite of likely odd-numbered final marks of 5 or 7 combined goals? Never fear, you do not need a British exchange to gamble on both outcomes in a single wager. The ticket is “Double Chance”. But, remember to put only small-unit dollars behind your pick when “laying on” the best club in England.

WagerBop’s Pick: Man United or Draw (Double Chance) (+230)