NFL Gambling Markets in Week 2: Best Sunday Odds and MNF Prop Bet Prediction

Last week, your humble narrator lost his hunch-y prediction on Thursday Night Football in resounding style, and then went on to have a pretty decent weekend on the gridiron. Small-unit bets on TNF can be considered something akin to “coin toss” betting on the Super Bowl – it’s a launching point that can serve as a good-luck charm on a win and a caution-flag as a loss.

Hoping that a TNF loss adds up to Saturday-Sunday winning is about the only optimistic spin you can put on our failed “internal” pick for TNF this week, in which the WagerBop staff agreed that Kansas City and Los Angeles would combine for 55 or more points. The Chargers played a conservative “4-man rush” defense for most of the contest, content to allow Pat Mahomes’ offense short gains, a tactic more associated with January than with September. Then came a pick-6 from the opposing 1-yard line, triumphant for the Chiefs indeed, but representing just about football’s only negative play against an “Over” pick which involves a defensive player running all the way for a score. Justin Herbert was about to produce another TD and 7 points anyway, making the interception-return worthless as an O/U total-points booster. By the time Herbert suffered a painful upper-body injury in the 2nd half, it was clear that OT was the Over’s only chance, but a scramble for a loose on-side kick went the Chiefs way.

What can be learned from the Bolts going into playoff-mode months early, with a gritty “Cover 2” defensive philosophy and a QB gutting it out through obvious pain in the 4th frame?

As we’ll touch on in this Sunday’s pick on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, sometimes the “adjustment” to a 17-game schedule can paradoxically involve more pressure to win early season games, since players know their average minutes will go down overall, and that their coaches will look for opportunities for athletes to coast, at least emotionally, later on in the long midseason grind. Getting out ahead with bunches of Ws may be the ticket to an easy autumn, even though it worked the opposite way for teams like the Arizona Cardinals in 2021-22. But for some Week 1 losers, that’s already not an option. Far from a league of hardcore-determined bullies in head coaches’ chairs (this ain’t the 1940s), the NFL’s smart CEOs are trying to get their teams to peak in December and January, any which way they can.

Teams with “works in progress” at any position ought to be steep underdogs against healthy NFL contenders still full of vinegar coming out of the gate. That plays into the Tampa-New Orleans pick in potentially more ways than one, but first, let’s l00k at a midday Rust Belt kickoff between the Browns and Jets.

New York Jets at Cleveland Browns (Sunday, September 18)

Cleveland’s former QB Baker Mayfield was lost to free agency this offseason, and the Browns made rather painful headlines by replacing the Oklahoma icon with criminally-charged Deshaun Watson, who will likely be under center after serving a long suspension. The Dawgs’ personnel department also signed Amari Cooper, a far less contentious acquisition who caught 8 TD passes last season for the Silver Star. On defense, the Browns signed formidable pass rusher Jadeveon Clowney to pair with superstar Myles Garrett. Cleveland scored a heartening road win over Carolina in Week 1 and is a (-290) odds favorite this Sunday to beat the New York Jets at home.

FanDuel Sportsbook‘s (+6.5) point spread on visiting New York virtually dares bettors to take the underdog, without giving-up a full TD margin. It’s no shock that the Jets didn’t look much like a revival team, or a solid ATS pick at home or away for that matter, in the process of losing in Week 1 to the Baltimore Ravens. Jets’ QB Joe Flacco played like an old pro who was effective “between the 20s” but had a problematic time finishing drives. Oddly enough, New York won the game’s battle of time-of-possession.

A typical online handicap of Cleveland-NY will be that Flacco can’t take the heat from 2 premier pass-rushers. Especially since Flacco is among the few remaining NFL players who can remember Mark Gastineau and the “New York Sack-Exchange” from the early 1980s. But remember that Cleveland’s pass rush isn’t something that erupted incidentally mid-season. The Jets and Flacco have had a while to prepare, possibly to use an entire training camp’s worth of short-passes and creative hand-offs to keep the Browns at bay. Baltimore looks like a potential division champion in 2022-23, while Cleveland would be a (-2) ATS pick except for the fortunate Week 1 finish.

WagerBop’s Pick: Jets ATS (+6.5) 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (Sunday, September 18)

While there aren’t any feline-based monikers at hand when the Saints (+2.5) meet the Buccaneers, a young lion will be taking on an old lion in the Big Easy on Sunday afternoon. Tom Brady’s paltry output from Week 1 didn’t compare to the big day for Jameis Winston and the New Orleans Saints offense. The prospect of Tampa receiver Julio Jones’ potential absence, in addition to the early prize of a 2-0 record and a guaranteed lead in the NFC South, has ‘cappers forecasting a close game despite the starting QBs’ disparate resumes.

If there is a time on which Brady is ready to fire-off passes from the pocket on a majority of downs, it’s this weekend’s kickoff. The Buccaneers’ 19-3 win over the Dallas Cowboys must be taken in the context of the Cowboys’ stagnant, injury-racked effort on offense, and the Buccaneers’ determination to only score as many passing TDs as necessary to win in the season’s early games. Brady has played in so many away games in domed stadiums that Sunday’s game will feel like 2nd-nature to the “old lion.”

In the meantime, Winston will be dealing with more acute pressure than he has in 2022 so far, both off-the-field this week and from Tampa’s fierce defense during the combat. Brady’s desire to save himself for the NFC playoffs is a goal as much as it is a strategy. The Bucs may perform with postseason intensity in early division bouts, hoping that they’ll find more opportunities to throttle back in autumn before gearing up for the final push.

WagerBop’s Pick: Buccaneers ATS (-2.5) 

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (Sunday, September 18)

The “dirty” secret of Week 1 was that the Seattle Seahawks didn’t look like a playoff contender while knocking off the Denver Broncos. Denver lost via utilizing a Red Zone offense for QB Russell Wilson that was similar to Pete Carroll’s failed “finesse” approach to scoring the Super Bowl’s winning TD against the New England Patriots. Wilson was asked to waggle-pass out of 4-wide formations from the 3-yard line, even losing 6 yards on a fancy play on 2nd-down-and-inches when a simple QB sneak would’ve broken the pylon-plane and triumphed. The Seahawks can take credit for learning how to discombobulate a surging opponent on the goal line, just as Bill Belichick once did to Carroll’s team However, this week’s (+8.5) spread shows what bookmakers really think of Seattle’s 1-0 record.

San Francisco (-390) deserves to be favored at home even after the Chicago debacle, but we’re not sure 1-to-4 odds are a rational price for the 49ers considering the rivalry at hand in Week 2. QB Geno Smith has the Seattle offense playing inspired football for a time, and it’s hard to argue San Fran will completely shut down a team coached by such familiar names, after a debut in which chasing down Justin Fields was too much for the NFC runners-up.

WagerBop’s Pick: Seahawks (+310) or ATS (+8.5)

Cincinnati Bengals at Dallas Cowboys (Sunday, September 18)

Cincinnati’s (-7.5) is another eye-popping spread, and not because the opposing Dallas Cowboys are having a solid September. QB Dak Prescott’s long-term injury is the main angle, in addition to how ready to break-out the Bengal WRs looked throughout a maddening OT loss in Week 1 to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Potential isn’t success until it happens, and Cincy’s special teams clearly have bigger issues than just banged-up kicking specialists trying to rush their recovery-time. Snapping and execution woes, even busted plays, became a theme for the Bengals throughout Pittsburgh’s incredible W. While it’s too early in the season to declare a 5-quarter loser browbeaten, tired, or having a “Super Bowl hangover,” it’s not hard to see that Cincinnati’s effort at the line-of-scrimmage is still a work in progress. The visiting OL isn’t authoritative enough when blocking for Joe Mixon to take full advantage of the Cowboys defense, itself the healthiest of Dallas’ 3 units by a wide berth with Prescott and an offensive tackle injured. The Bengals would be very pleased to grind out a 6:00 offense and win by 5-7 points.

WagerBop’s Pick: Cowboys ATS (+7.5)

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (Sunday Night Football)

Just in case the theme of disregarding Week 1 outcomes hasn’t been obvious coming from Las Vegas (and London, considering how widespread the phenomenon), FanDuel Sportsbook has taken a monstrous (-9.5) points from the 0-1 Green Bay Packers heading into this weekend’s SNF clash with visiting Chicago Bears. An O/U total of (41.5) stands out as remarkably low-balled for QB Aaron Rodgers playing in a game at home.

No matter how slow-to-execute the Packers looked against the victorious Minnesota Vikings last week, the old adage about Week 1 to Week 2 improvement could apply to Green Bay. Rodgers has recently confessed to using “alternative” methods to “R-E-L-A-X,” which could be why he hasn’t yet instructed Green Bay’s fans to do so this year. But the wise old QB certainly could be careful of allowing his club to peak too early in a 17-game season.

In the meantime, SNF sets up as a feast-or-famine situation for QB Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears as a whole, again calling the sportsbook’s (41.5) Over/Under line into question. Chicago’s defense must go from protecting Trey Lance’s targets to defending the great Rodgers, who ranks with Tom Brady among the top quarterbacks in punishing familiar teams in front of a friendly crowd. Fields got to play a fairly conventional 2nd half in Week 1, thanks to the inept offense of San Francisco. He’ll be tossed into a relative maelstrom at Lambeau Field with 50,000 noisy Cheeseheads screaming for a blow-out.

If Fields responds well, the game will naturally produce 45+ points as the 2 QBs fight to the finish. If not, Green Bay’s defense could tee up Rodgers to score 30 points on 5 short-field TD passes. Turbulent weather is expected to come and go along the Fox River by Saturday, leaving teams with pleasant conditions for scoring points on the outdoor gridiron.

WagerBop’s Pick: Over (41.5)

Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills (Monday Night Football)

A sleeker handicap prevails for our pick on MNF between troubled Tennessee (+9.5) and host Buffalo. Recollections of Buffalo’s strange lapses in the regular season, such as the Bills’ loss to Jacksonville by a baseball-type score in 2021, will cause sportsbook users to be shy of betting on Monday’s favorites enough to stretch the point spread to double-digits. Though that gives readers plenty of time to consider making picks on Buffalo-to-cover, the game’s Over/Under line of (48.5) and related prop markets are again more fascinating.

The formula of Tennessee’s all-out physical defense doesn’t work as well against elite opposition in September, when the Titans have to play enormously well to get helmets-on-pads in the first place. WagerBop predicts that Buffalo’s high-voltage attack could well leave Tennessee beaten and chasing receivers into the end-zone in the opening half of MNF. However, the Titans’ never-say-die attitude, mixed with Buffalo’s foreknowledge that there’s a ton of football left to be played in 2022-23, could also lead to an unexpectedly boring finish and a “sneaky” betting win for the low-side of O/U (48.5) points.

That doesn’t mean it’s a surefire win if you’ve got Under (25.5) on the 1st-half’s Over/Under prop bet for a pick. Standard (-110) odds on either side of the pregame prop line signify a mistake by the odds-makers, who should know a Super Bowl favorite’s best strategy is to rack up considerable leads in 2 quarters, and then run the rock like it’s Week 2.

WagerBop’s Pick: Over (25.5) (1st Half Total Points)