Bundesliga: RB Leipzig vs. Borussia Dortmund Preview, Odds, Prediction

RB Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund meet on Saturday afternoon in Bundesliga’s most interesting event of the round. What many predicted happens now, and that would be RB’s collapse. The Bulls were smashed in the UCL against Shakhtar, suffering a humiliation against the team who didn’t have any competitive continuity for a while. On the other hand, Borussia plays average football, but their results aren’t that poor. It isn’t the unit from a few years back that dominated the field, but a more conservative group, that takes care of its defense first and attacks later.

Preview

RB Leipzig (+135) allowed eight goals in the last two games. After losing to Eintracht on the road, 4-0, they were hammered at home in the UEFA Champions League opener against Shakhtar, 1-4. This was a knockout for the Bulls, who looked disorganized and without guidelines, suffering blow after blow while inefficiently trying to attack.

Yet, this was obvious with several players being departed this summer but without proper backups signed. There is a massive disbalance in the unit between the offense and the defense, which is why such mediocre results.

In only two games this year, RB managed to keep its net intact, and only two matches haven’t seen three or more hits. Also, this unit has just two wins in eight events played.

Borussia Dortmund (+170) won the past three and six of seven games played this season. Unlike before, the Millionaires aren’t displaying efficient and flamboyant football but rather defensive-minded. In those seven games, Edin Terzic’s crew kept five clean sheets.

That is something new in Borussia’s style of play, because this unit used to play for goal more, not caring about the defensive assignments too much. The lack of true superstars in the attacking line and several players injured forced Terzic to adjust.

In three away games since the start of the year, Dortmund scored seven and allowed one goal, winning in DFB Pokal against Munich 1860, 0-3, Freiburg, 1-3, and Hertha 0-1.

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Klostermann, Olmo, and Poulsen are all out due to various injuries.

Haller is still unavailable for Borussia, Dahoud, Bynoe-Gittens, Kobel and Morey Bauza are out for the Millionaires, while Karim Adeyemyi has chances to appear.

Head to Head Games

Both last year’s events were with goals, and in both, RB won. The first was in Leipzig, 2-1 for the hosts, and the Bulls were better in Dortmund, only it was 1-4.

The previous five games ended with both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals.

Prediction

With RB being this inconsistent and problematic, it would be ludacris to bet on the full-time result, and instead, we are going to take over 2.5 goals. We know Borussia plays defensive-minded football, but the hosts always attack regardless of the rivals, results, or circumstances. And right now, they have to go out and try to erase the previous two defeats. Such an approach should provide lots of opportunities ahead of both nets, so we decided to bet on high efficiency.

The odds here are -195, which is enough for us, and for those who want more, throw in both teams to score as well.

Pick: Over 2.5 goals -195