CFB Week 2: Missouri at Kansas State Underdog Pick and Best Odds on Notre Dame vs Marshall

We’re making a concerted effort to recommend college football moneylines and point spreads this week, and not so much the Over/Under. That’s for health reasons, pure and simple. There don’t need to be any cardiac arrests in front of the TV on our watch, especially those suffered by the blogger after having a W/L week held on edge at the 1 yard-line.

Jokes aside, both the successful Hawaii-WKU “under” pick and the Clemson-GT “over” pick from WagerBop’s Week 1 spread were reminders of how delicate point total speculating can be. Hawaii’s game seemed absolutely sure to go over a healthy 68-point total line until the game was actually over, and it took almost 4 full quarters for Dabo Swinney to call on a hotshot frosh QB on Labor Day…an angle WB foresaw kicking-in during the 1st half.

There’s no reason to shy away from point-total picks on a variety-based FBS betting strategy. Over/Under picks can be a quiet, steady engine keeping the investor at 55% against the house when bookmakers and the betting public forget simple game-control factors, or fail to properly gauge the vibe on campus headed into a scrum, such as when a Clemson-GaSo point total failed to drop fast enough with a hurricane bearing down on South Carolina, and both teams interested in playing-out the 2nd half quickly and getting the hell out of dodge.

But a good underdog moneyline is like a good fishing spot – you want to take advantage of it while the skies are friendly. Week 2’s FBS schedule has produced enough unique out-of-conference contests and early rivalry bouts that sportsbooks appear a tad flummoxed over certain markets, and have badly underestimated the superior athletes of the SEC again.

First, let’s look at a “side” pick on an underrated QB from another top league.

Louisville Cardinals at Central Florida Knights (Friday, September 9)

The betting lines for Friday for UCF-Louisville have already stood out to FBS analysts, not because the 1-0 Central Florida Knights are the favorite, but because they are favored by such a healthy (-6.5) margin on the point spread. For all of the dramatic turns in UCF pigskin over the past few years, it could be results from elsewhere on FBS scoreboards that are helping the Knights remain a solid favorites’ pick, not scores from Florida or Kentucky.

SC State of the Football Championship Subdivision served little resistance to UCF going 1-0 on the new season, while Louisville lost to a far more powerful ACC foe in the Syracuse Orange in Week 1. But speculators just witnessed South Dakota State of the FCS frustrating Iowa of the Big Ten for 4 quarters, on the same weekend that Delaware of the lower division upset Navy of UCF’s now-temporary American Athletic Conference, and additionally on which William & Mary bashed the supposedly “bowl-worthy” Charlotte 49ers.

FCS opponents beat a grand total of 6 FBS teams in Week 1 of last season. Those angles may be leading to UCF getting more credence for having held serve against the FCS.

Louisville’s QB Malik Cunningham has been demoted as a threat by Las Vegas, following a poor season debut that included 2 interceptions in the loss to Syracuse. If it’s a mistake to underestimate the FCS as a measuring stick for Group-of-5 programs, it’s an even bigger error to misread a bad game from Cunningham as evidence that the QB is no longer effective. The dual-threat veteran combined for nearly 4000 yards and 40 touchdowns by ground and air last season, and flogged the UCF defense in last season’s 42-35 victory over the Knights at Papa John’s Stadium. Cunningham only needs to bounce back to his standard waterline in Week 2 for UL to cover a touchdown against the AAC. Patient bettors could find an even more favorable 7-point margin ATS late in the week if Cunningham’s low lights from Week 1 continue getting sneered at on social media by way-too-spontaneous UCF takers.

WagerBop’s Pick: Louisville ATS (+6.5)

Missouri Tigers at Kansas State Wildcats (Saturday, September 10)

WagerBop will not profess to have forecast current head coach Chris Klieman’s success since taking over at KSU. Our blog once predicted that Klieman would be destined for a rough ride in the Big-12 after coaching against 50+ out-manned opponents in a row while at North Dakota State. The debut margin0of-victory for KSU over South Dakota – a brand not nearly as skillful on the field as Klieman’s quasi-FBS program from Fargo – is deceiving at 34-0 given the Wildcats’ impressive onslaught of scoring in the 1st-quarter. But it’s a mystery as to why all of the focus is not on Missouri, the substantial point-spread underdog from college football’s best league, but instead centers around the “fading” Big-12’s favorite.

Mizzou’s 52-24 waylay of Louisiana Tech in Week 1 outshines many of the past, paltry efforts of less-talented UM teams against Group-of-5 opponents. Head coach Eli Drinkwitz has to be excited about an offensive backfield from which 5 separate rushers scored TDs last Thursday. Missouri has had a few extra days’ rest as well as combat experience against an FBS opponent, this means that KSU could find itself dumbfounded by opposing strength and speed early in the game and have to come out in the 2nd half and rally in front of a host crowd. The SEC visitor’s edge-rush was lively in Week 1, helping the Tigers snag 3 interceptions from the Bulldogs. This is bad news for a Kansas State passing game that scarcely did anything to begin the campaign in spite of a scoreboard win.

WagerBop’s Picks: Missouri (+255) or ATS (+7.5)

Appalachian State Mountaineers at Texas A&M Aggies (Saturday, September 10)

It is natural to focus on a (-17.5) point-spread favorite like Texas A&M. But the fact that the SEC-centrism in the betting community likely will not allow App State’s point spread line to contract very much throughout Week 2 creates a very simple angle for a pick.

There is no vintage Appalachian State team that is a true 20-point underdog, at least not against any team outside of Alabama, Clemson, or Georgia in a championship season. App State’s recent history includes the Mountaineers surviving well into the 4th quarter, often with stunning victories, against adversaries from the Power-5, the Top 25, and even the top-15. The key question to ask this Saturday is whether the Mountaineers are up-to-standard, or just another Cinderella contender in 2022-2023.

The Mountaineers offense is the “real deal” according to none other than the “enemy’s” Texas A&M journal Gig ‘Em Gazette. That’s not exactly a major exposé after analysts spent time watching Mountaineer QB Chase Brice and RB Nate Noel demolish North Carolina’s defense in Appalachian State’s regrettable Week 1 63-61 loss to the Tar Heels. Undoubtedly, the Mountaineer offense is primed to score on an A&M defense that typically won’t perform at its best until the conference slate starts. On Saturday, whichever offense strikes first on a few big plays will probably cover the spread. Making the next question to ask is whether Texas A&M’s passing game can replicate the remarkable success of UNC last weekend.

Is it possible the game’s O/U line of (53.5) provides a better gambit than the “simple” point spread pick? The Aggies and QB Haynes King will score 6-7 touchdowns by themselves if given the opening against App State’s weak defensive backfield. But the Aggies could push with tempo to try to build an insurmountable 3rd-quarter lead and get the contest over with, especially if the Mountaineers make some plays early against a titan (they almost always do). If the game does enter into trash-time with 15:00 remaining, we expect consolation points scored by the Sun Belt visitors before bailing out.

WagerBop’s Pick: Over (53.5)

Marshall Thundering Herd at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Saturday, September 10)

The offensive line of Marshall simply overwhelmed Norfolk State in the Thundering Herd’s 55-3 win on Saturday. Given the terrific Fighting Irish debut against Ohio State, we have to question why Notre Dame is only a (-20.5) point spread favorite over Marshall. (If that sounds counterintuitive, just scroll a moment.)

There will be no “overpowering” of the UND front-7 by Saturday’s guests at the Golden Dome, considering that OSU’s ballyhooed offense was reduced to a crawl by the Irish in prime-time action. Notre Dame performed relatively badly on offense, to be sure, but will enjoy the same kind of menacing edge in the trenches that Marshall had in the last outing. This allows the #8 ranked team’s rich skill corps to have a breakout game.

WagerBop’s Pick: Notre Dame ATS (-20.5)

Iowa State Cyclones at Iowa Hawkeyes (Saturday, September 10)

It is a little surprising that betting action hasn’t driven the Iowa-Iowa State O/U total down below (41.5) points and even into the high 30s. That isn’t because neither team from the Hawkeye state will be competent enough for scoring points against a good defense in 2022-23. In fact, it would be a grand error to miscalculate either school’s blocking and play-making ability over the long-term based on the pair of faltering wins from Week 1.

Nonetheless, the dominant media narrative on a low-scoring game like Iowa’s bizarre 7-3 win over SDSU, or ISU’s attempt to blow out SEMO, a school from an extremely humble FCS conference, is that the offenses were “bad” and not that the defense was any better. FCS teams from the Dakotas are at least as good on defense as Group-of-5 units, making Cyclone defense no “gimme” to decide a state championship in an away game.

A foolish sports media doesn’t amount to the media always being wrong. In this case, it’s not Iowa’s laugh-a-minute “highlight” reel from last week’s game, instead the “Army vs Navy” quality of the match-up that’s a solid reason to bet the Under. The key will be timing in getting the ISU and Iowa offenses to look lively in 2022, and time is short at the moment.

While Iowa’s prospects of a 28+ point day are slim, the Hawkeye defense will play a well-organized style focusing on crashing ISU’s limited weapons. Most of the Cyclones’ tailbacks failed to get any yards after contact on SEMO’s blue-collar linebackers. That gives Hawkeye boosters hope that if RB Jirehl Brock can be stopped by Iowa, the visitors will be condemned to 3-and-outs, followed by nail-biting defensive series against the run-heavy Hawkeyes.

WagerBop’s Pick: Under (41.5)