College FB Week 1 Preview: FanDuel Sportsbook Odds and Best Picks Thursday Thru Labor Day

There’s an awful lot of college football to pick from this weekend – 5 days in total. So, we’ll skip the fancy setup and get right into the games, but not without a word on the lack of money-line picks you’ll find on WagerBop’s Week 1 scroll.

No, we’re not avoiding ML bet recommendations just because it’s out-of-conference season, and there’s so many wide spreads and eye-popping totals on the FBS gambling board. In fact, some of the better O/U picks are found on games that are likely to be pretty close, like Purdue vs Penn State. It’s also not about the “serious vs unserious” stereotypes of different betting markets, as we’ll reference while fleshing-out angles on another one of the scrums below.

Rather, the bookmakers of Sin City appear to have forgotten some simple game control and coaching factors when setting college football’s O/U lines for Labor Day weekend. That’s probably because we’ve had a whole offseason to look at coaching changes, new players, and potential emerging stars of the Power-5.

Everyone’s chomping at the bit to factor-in the hottest new commodity behind center or in the open field. But with a “field” of 120+ top-tier Division 1 teams as usual, Week 1 is an occasion to look at a few more of the elementals, starting with a conference that began play with an Earth-shaking outcome in Dublin.

Penn State Nittany Lions at Purdue Boilermakers (Thursday, September 1)

Nebraska fell short again in the opener of the Big Ten’s season on a neutral field in Ireland. The hard-luck (or foolhardy) Cornhuskers held an 11-point lead over Northwestern in the 3rd quarter, threatening to cover FanDuel’s (-12.5) point spread with another TD drive. Nebraska head coach Scott Frost then made a special-teams blunder as bad as coach Kirby Smart’s fake-punt attempt against Alabama in the SEC Championship Game, ordering an on-side kick try that gave an upstart Wildcat offense excellent field position and sparked a Northwestern comeback win. Now, Nebraska is 5-21 in its last 26 close-score games, further proof that tendencies can stay long in football teams bred close to the Rust Belt.

Gamblers will wonder if the Big Ten’s tendencies will continue to win out in Week 1 when Penn State (-3.5) visits Purdue. Happy Valley deserves the nod as a field-goal favorite on the road considering Purdue’s meager history trying to beat Penn State. The Purdue Boilermakers have only beaten PSU 3 times in nearly 20 games, losing 35-7 in the most recent contest. On the contrary, though, FanDuel odds-makers seem to have ignored the Big Ten’s trends in point-scoring in setting other lines for Thursday, like the hefty (53.5) point Over/Under market for the week’s marquee prime-time Ross-Ade Stadium kickoff.

The Nittany Lions have their typical array of nice weapons at WR, at DB, and in the offensive backfield. Nonetheless, Penn State’s HC James Franklin rarely looks to turn a conference game into a track-meet. In reality, some of the coach’s legendary high-scoring wins and losses at PSU have been sparked by high-powered opponents taking chances to keep up with touchdowns by Saquon Barkley and Trace McSorley. Deprived of anyone that is prohibitively good, and without a proven, veteran OL on the field in 2022, the Nittany Lions are likely to begin by trying to establish field position and a decent running game. In the meantime, the Boilermakers will have to be wary of super-senior Ja’Ayir Brown prowling the secondary for Penn State. So Purdue will probably attack the visiting defense where it’s weakest against the run game instead of giving QB Aiden O’Connell over 40 attempts.

WagerBop’s Pick: Under (53.5)

Western Michigan Broncos at Michigan State Spartans (Friday, September 2)

Those not partaking in Friday Night Lights will be drawn to Colorado’s (+390) odds to upset Texas Christian, if only because Western Michigan’s (+1000) line to claim a historic win over Michigan State (-2300) doesn’t seem very enticing due to the mismatch.

It has been said that “serious” CFB gamblers prefer the moneyline, but in fact the ML isn’t always the ticket for such a lopsided match-up as Friday’s kickoff in East Lansing. This game’s point spread of (-21.5) and O/U line of (54.5) appear to contradict each other. Especially since it’s not altogether clear how the Broncos would score 3 touchdowns on a Michigan State Spartan defense that’s full of momentum following the team’s banner campaign during the ’21 run. Theoretically, bookmakers may be focused on last summer’s shaky MSU outcomes, such as Michigan State’s defense allowing 21 points to a weak Northwestern attack and another 14 to FCS thrash-for-cash foe Youngstown State.

There is also the not-so-subtle point that for all of the Spartans’ success, the team’s defense was ranked statistically worst in the Big Ten last year. MSU betrayed its tradition of turning FBS scrums into grudge matches with a poor 2021 pass defense that finished in the cellar of Division 1. However, that means we can expect MSU’s physical front-7 to come into Friday’s opener with a point to prove against an inferior rival.

WMU could quickly find itself between a rock and a hard place with poor rushing options and yet no pocket protection when the MAC team decides to pass. Throw out the results of post-COVID years—we’re predicting an MSU debut, not unlike Michigan State’s 28-7 win over Tulsa in Week 1 of 2019.

WagerBop’s Pick: Under (54.5)

Buffalo Bulls at Maryland Terrapins (Saturday, September 3)

It is possible that the MAC is a very bad bet against the Power-5 on Friday, but the same Group-of-5 league is probably a great pick against Maryland on Saturday. Maryland is a hefty (-23.5) point favorite on the spread for Saturday’s kickoff against visiting Buffalo, a program that lost to Nebraska 28-3 last summer and was not invited to a bowl game. No doubt Maryland’s offense can produce enough points to cover a 3+ touchdown spread against a MAC opponent. But the Terrapins also face a long rebuilding chore on defense and are ill-equipped to hold a slick, fast, wide-open offense like Buffalo’s from scoring points.

WagerBop’s Pick: Buffalo ATS (+23.5)

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Ohio State Buckeyes (Saturday, September 3)

Saturday’s speculators could once again be drawn to the wrong betting line, and indeed the wrong marquee game, early on a long weekend of kickoffs. Georgia and Oregon are handicapped with what appears to be a cautious, conservative O/U line of (53.5) for an afternoon scrum at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The cold fact that a predicted UGA blow-out could produce trash-time and “mop-up” TDs for both teams in the 4th quarter is among many factors that could drive up betting action on the SEC and Pac-12 teams to combine for 54+ points. However, the 17-point spread reminds us how mismatched the bout could be, and many “Over” gamblers have spent frustrating hours watching offenses from lower-ranked conferences try in vain to move the pigskin on an SEC powerhouse of any kind. Let alone the defending national champions from a brand known for getting physical.

FanDuel’s moderately “high” Over/Under total of (58.5) on Ohio State and Notre Dame’s prime-time clash is not handicapped quite “high” enough. Our preseason college football predictions included Ohio State’s defense is as much of a question mark for 2022-23 as the school’s vaunted offense is sure to score points. Looking at a rare double-digit point spread underdog with a College Football Playoff reputation, OSU coaches are also unlikely to be shy when it comes to leaving C.J. Stroud in a Week 1 game to throw pile-on TD passes if the Fighting Irish are as meek as the sportsbook’s (+17.5) UND point spread suggests.

Experts will argue Notre Dame could face a long, slow decline in offensive efficiency without a game-planner calling the shots like Brian Kelly. However, with new Irish skipper Marcus Freeman touting the visitors’ ugly sportsbook odds as a potential psychological edge over the Buckeyes in Week 1, we can be assured that Notre Dame will empty its new playbook trying to keep up with the explosive offense of Columbus. It’s not the right time for a “3-yards-and-dust” ball-control game plan on offense, nor a “bend but don’t break” style defense for Notre Dame this Saturday. Especially since South Bend boosters will expect to see a fiery, exciting unit debut in the Horseshoe whether UND wins or is vanquished.

WagerBop’s Pick: Over (58.5)

WKU Hilltoppers at Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (Sunday, Sept 4 (Midnight EST)

Midnight “bail-out” betting on Hawaii’s contest has been handicapped with a whopping O/U (67.5) point-total market, as bookmakers react to UH’s defense looking even more porous than expected in a loss to Vanderbilt in Week 1. The Rainbow Warriors have a new coaching staff, a temporary make-shift stadium, and 51 new players in 2022, perhaps causing Las Vegas to imagine a “Southern Methodist in the late 1980s” scenario as a program struggles to completely rebuild from the ground up. But then again, that’s all the more reason to be less-generous with O/U lines while the Warriors figure their offense out.

WKU, which had problems moving the pigskin in 2 out of 4 quarters against FCS representative Austin Peay in Week Zero’s 38-27 victory, could be so pleased to have a relatively easy hand against the Mountain West that the Hilltoppers stay conservative with the ball and coast to a 35-17 finish. Tyson Helton, coaching a (-15.5) point favorite early Sunday morning Bowling Green time, should understand that Hawaii’s best chance to win is to create chaos, turnovers, and momentum following Week Zero’s dour debut.

WagerBop’s Pick: Under (67.5)

Florida State Seminoles at LSU Tigers (Sunday, September 4)

Here is another “at” on the sports ticker that only indicates a deceptive “home-field” advantage, as LSU takes on FSU in a kickoff at Mercedes-Benz Superdome on Sunday. Sportsbooks are giving FSU (+3.5) points on the spread. But the game could prove to be a bad match-up for the Tigers, many of whom never wanted a coaching change in Baton Rouge to begin with. The excellent offensive line of Florida State and a play-making ACC secondary could make the difference as LSU begins the process of revamping and rebuilding.

WagerBop’s Pick: Florida State ATS (+3.5)

Clemson Tigers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (Monday, September 5)

With no NFL schedule to compete with FBS games in Week 1, the ACC has somehow taken “dibs” on 2 prime-time showcases in a row. Clemson opens its conference slate against Georgia Tech in the most “partisan” atmosphere of any Mercedes-Benz kickoff on Labor Day.

Georgia Tech has been a not-so-ramblin’ wreck on the gridiron for a while now, living out the familiar pattern of Geoff Collins’ failure as a head coach. The previous GT skipper, Paul Johnson, was an offensive genius who had his flaws, but whose plan for bowl-season success had more substance than Collins’ hollow “NFL” jargon.

Georgia Tech’s pale (+890) moneyline odds to win nothwithstanding, Monday’s betting lines of Clemson (-22.5) and especially O/U (48.5) show that bookies are taking a wait-and-see approach in 2022 with the Tigers. The very angle holding-back the point total, Clemson’s controversy over which of 2 quarterbacks should start the year behind center, is why FanDuel’s O/U market is too cautious even if the Tigers stumble in the beginning.

No matter how the game goes, Dabo Swinney will probably give Clemson passers D.J. Uiagalelei and Cade Klubnik each several series to lead, since either late garbage-time or a player having had a bad start would be a good reason to change it up. In the meantime, the Yellow Jackets are going to empty the playbook against favored ACC rivals this season, since Collins knows that it’s win-or-leave-town in his 4th season at the controls. The outcome will be a feast-or-famine contest for both offenses, with Clemson almost certainly scoring more TDs, but winning in a fashion nothing like some of last year’s ugly Saturdays.

WagerBop’s Pick: Over (48.5)