Betting the EPL’s Return: Odds on Promoted Teams, Match Previews, and 4 Weekend Picks

With the English Premier League’s new season kicking off today via a match between the yearly “top-4 contender” Arsenal and the annual “mid-table” Crystal Palace, it’s interesting to consider how many EPL brands have stabilized in-place when it comes to long-term expectations and outcomes. That’s despite a landscape in which pricey European rosters are increasingly viewed as “talent-gobbling” table climbers, minnow killers, and legacy-shakers, beginning with Manchester City and Bayern Munich.

Heck, Bayern has affected the speculation on Premier League bids as much as any English side during the 2022 transfer window, filching a Liverpool superstar and helping Manchester City to another 1-to-2 championship futures line. The only weird angle is that the present gambling numbers follow a season in which City won only 1 competition it was favored to win out of 4, and the EPL title by a hair with a dramatic outcome on the 38th match-day.

My colleague Nikola has done a fine job overviewing the EPL’s long-term betting odds for 2022-23, so we won’t dive into those on this page full of match picks, but with the odds so clearly-defining UK favorites and underdogs yet again, it’s worth considering how the championship chase could affect early-season moneyline bets.

The practice of picking Premier League underdogs to win at long odds early in the season could be coming to an end, or at least changing in scope and execution. Teams may begin to realize that to have any chance to overtake Sky Blues, every match against a vulnerable opponent is a must-win under any circumstances. That includes Matchweek 1.

It’s a similar scenario for newly promoted clubs, who bear a burden from the only anomaly in how EPL tables are fleshing out these days – the potential presence of star-studded teams like Everton in the race to avoid relegation. Norwich City’s failed bids to stay afloat at the top level, like others, have not failed due to Canaries’ inability to take-on and defeat elite English sides. That was proven when Norwich upset Manchester City in a featured world-wide broadcast. Canaries didn’t forge nearly enough early-season draws to stick around though, a chore that could prove harder for this cycle’s promoted brands with top teams roaring from the start.

Let’s look at a few of the best main-market wagers on Saturday and Sunday’s opening Premiership slate, with a closer look at all 3 new varieties of shirts in the 2022-23 EPL – and some sky-blue shirts too, of course.

Premier League Opening Weekend Match Odds and Picks

Fulham vs Liverpool (Saturday, August 6th)

Liverpool has allowed big-name talent to escape other brands during the transfer period, and hasn’t exactly signed enough new stars to make up for the deficit in quality. For example, Sadio Mané, a linchpin winger for the team’s championship bids in the early 2020s, has now transferred to play for Bundesliga’s “talent-gobbling” brand Bayern Munich. Pricey backs like Neco Williams, in addition to familiar names Divock Origi and Ben Davies, have departed as well. Liverpool’s prized new transfer is former Benfica forward Darwin Núñez, a wonderful talent, but hardly used to the week-to-week challenge of EPL back-lines and goalkeepers.

Reds have quickly “fattened,” or lessened in betting terms, to more than a 2-to-1 pick to win the EPL in 2022-23, while rival Manchester City is once again considered a prohibitive favorite to top the EPL table at (-170) or “minus” futures odds. However, our blog’s prediction that Liverpool’s week-to-week action might not suffer quite so much is illustrated by Matchweek 1’s line on Reds to beat newly-promoted Fulham. Liverpool is a (-330) money-line pick that serious punters will only consider as a parlay or combination wager, while Cottagers’ line to surprise with a debut-upset at home is a long (+1000). Why would Reds continue to be such a short-odds favorite in lines to win, when “leaked points” to teams like Fulham are what Man City speculators would point to when explaining their reason for taking Sky Blues again?

Fulham isn’t considered a good match for Liverpool stylistically. Fulham’s rise to prominence may seem inevitable after Cottagers won the Championship table with an amazing 100+ tallies scored in 46 fixtures. But a defense-first mindset is standard for any EPL club going into the opening weekend, making it unlikely that Liverpool will be caught unprepared for Cottagers’ attacking, which may not look so good against Reds’ back-4 anyway.

Remember the principle of the new EPL starting like a sprint and not a marathon. With the inspiration of a fresh Premier League campaign behind Fulham’s supporters, and a Liverpool counter-attack that no Championship side can fathom until genuinely opposing it in a league match, we’re expecting a bunch of goals, and perhaps a 3-1 outcome for the favorites.

WagerBop’s Pick: Over (3.5) (+134)

Newcastle United vs Nottingham Forest (Saturday, August 6)

Bettors will be drawn to Nottingham Forest’s (+470) generous odds to upset Newcastle, since Magpies are so much lesser in quality than what Cottagers face on day 1. Nottingham Forest, readers can recall, was heroic in the 2021-22 FA Cup, and may prove to be a “sneaky” long-term betting winner that exceeds the value on AFC Bournemouth or Fulham.

Magpies could be considered a dodgy pick at (-155) odds, as the team must debut in early August without nearly having settled the roster or new player purchases. Look deeper at what Newcastle United has done in the transfer cycle, though, and there’s no significant evidence that the mid-table brand will weaken in any way in 2022-23. Conversely, Newcastle has been able to add speed, skill, durability, and experience with generous contracts for incoming footballers who are mostly replacing dead weight in outgoing transfers.

WagerBop’s Pick: Draw (+270)

AFC Bournemouth vs Aston Villa (Saturday, August 6th)

Bournemouth, or “Cherries” as the club is affectionately nicknamed, can be thought of as the “odd one out” in this cycle’s field of 3 promoted EPL teams. Fulham is the team that could ironically put owner Tony Khan in the success column, following years of frustration with the Jacksonville Jaguars and close-but-clear TV ratings losses in pro wrestling. Nottingham Forest isn’t just named after a popular financial app (or its titular fairy-tale character), but stunned onlookers with an epic “minnow” run in the 2021-22 FA Cup. Bournemouth, in contrast, is considered a staid side that eked out enough points to qualify for another EPL cycle, after falling flat in previous years at the top level of English soccer.

However, prevailing optimistic odds on Villains (+100) to beat Cherries (+270) this weekend are way off kilter, and it’s not to punters’ credit that there hasn’t been more of a betting rush on Cherries markets for Matchweek 1.

Aston Villa may have finished a noble 14th on the EPL table in spring 2022, but Villains are still much closer to a Championship side in quality, depth, and outcomes than supporters would like to admit. Even the O/U odds of (-102) on Over (2.5) goals scored at Dean Court give too much credit to Aston Villa as an attacking team against perceived inferior clubs.

Villa, to wit, hasn’t defeated Brentford in its last 7 appearances against Bees, who finished less than 3 victories above relegation in April. Aston Villa has only beaten Burnley, a relegated Championship team in 2022, twice in nearly 10 matches since 2010. Villa’s record against Cherries themselves may not prove quite as revealing until the sides pile-up a few more meetings, but it’s notable that Bournemouth has a 3-match win streak in the series.

WagerBop’s Pick: AFC Bournemouth (+270)

West Ham United vs Manchester City (Sunday, August 7th)

Pep Guardiola’s secret to finishing tops on the EPL table is a “starting 22” that can play football as well as any team’s best 11, giving Sky Blues the chance to rest key performers at-will and still convert 3 points at a time against bottom-half clubs. However, Manchester City’s style of winning big matches with its “super-best 11” involves turning an opponent’s midfield errors into offense faster than any team in the world. That’s a clue to the healthy goal-total predictions for Sky Blues’ visit to face 2021-22 upstart West Ham on Sunday.

City’s (-290) money-line odds to win reflect once again that the era of prohibitive EPL favorites coasting through late summer fixtures is over, as the domestic league’s 4 or 5 most talented lineups recognize that dropping points is always deadly with Manchester City and Liverpool making 10+ match “invincible” runs. West Ham’s (+750) underdog odds reflect skepticism that Hammers can pull off another top-half season. Prevailing (-170) odds on Over (2.5) total goals, meanwhile, illustrate how bookmakers believe Sunday’s fixture is likely to progress, with a brave host attacking but making enough errors to let City score and win.

But don’t be shocked if Hammers spend much of the engagement playing inspired football, and just missing on chances that fail to touch the visitors’ net but nonetheless help to create a slower-moving, more suspenseful game than a back-and-forth thriller.

Hammers’ campaign in August of last year began with an easy win over troubled Leicester City, but West Ham tried and failed to connect on winning goals in the next 3 tightly-drawn league matches against opponents in better form than Foxes, and even relaxed when defending in a UEFA debut against Dynamo Zagreb, despite posting a clean sheet.

WagerBop expects Man City to try fewer shot-attempts than usual and spend gainful minutes passing the ball around the West Ham half of the pitch, further helping to slow Hammers’ enthusiastic counter-attacks, and possibly producing a very low-scoring outcome.

WagerBop’s Pick: Under (2.5) (+138)