USFL Odds and Predictions: Saturday-Sunday Previews and Tampa Bay vs New Orleans Pick

Lo and behold, much like XFL betting odds just prior to the league’s COVID-19 suspension in 2020, the USFL’s gambling lines are starting to tighten.

Except for a couple of fairly wild Week 9 point spreads, that is.

The Birmingham Stallions might’ve kept shrinking toward minus-odds as a USFL championship pick, given that the Stallions already loomed large on betting boards prior to the field of mathematically-alive USFL teams narrowing itself down. But after last week’s close-shave victory, the Stallions are hanging around 2-to-1 again.

Near the lower end of the United States Football League totem pole, Tampa Bay has recovered from the brink of being the least highly-touted team ever led by coach Todd Haley, improving to (+700) futures odds in Week 9.

Simple final scores lie behind some of the changing sportsbook vibes. Birmingham’s 10-9 victory over New Orleans in Week 8 looked ugly on its face. J’Mar Smith has been serviceable as a Read-Option runner, but he’s not enough of a dynamic scrambler to overcome his mediocre completion rate through the air. Birmingham must rely on strong defense and run-blocking.

Bettors are also thinking of the Birmingham Stallions’ necessary, unavoidable “winless” road record until the club reaches Canton for the USFL playoffs. FanDuel users wagering long-term picks on the alternative New Jersey Generals, New Orleans Breakers, or Philadelphia Stars could be hoping that Stallions won’t be readily able to adapt to new circumstances once forced to kick-off without an exclusive home-turf advantage to draw on.

Philadelphia’s victory last weekend looked more appealing to the casual speculator. The talented Stars whipped the Michigan Panthers 46-24 in Week 8, while the Tampa Bay Bandits slogged their way through a dull 13-3 win over another cellar-dwelling opponent, the Houston Gamblers. But the odds on Tampa Bay (+700) and Philadelphia (+700) to win a USFL title are alike, and further, it’s the Bandits who’ve gotten a surge in drawn betting action over the past few days. Those who are tuned into the nascent league’s box scores know that as boring as it may be, Tampa’s formula of nursing small leads works.

Tampa must catch up to New Orleans’ single-game lead in the South Division in order to reach the playoffs, and will have a glorious opportunity to do so when facing the Breakers this Sunday.

Philadelphia’s expected romp over the weak Pittsburgh Maulers in Week 9 won’t cause major ripples in the North Division standings, but the Stars can hope to gather even more momentum while improving to 6-3, even as the 7-1 New Jersey Generals enjoy their own cupcake match-up against lowly Michigan in this Saturday’s midday kickoff.

USFL Week 9 Selected Point Spreads, Moneylines, O/U Lines, and Picks

New Jersey Generals vs Michigan Panthers (Saturday, June 11)

The Generals are (-330) moneyline favorites and (-7.5) point favorites on the spread against hapless Michigan (+270), with the point-spread number standing as a bold, but justified mark of New Jersey’s superior form in a league where taking even a 7-point edge from a single go-ahead TD is far from certain.

Saturday’s early Over/Under line is offered at a very healthy (46.5) number for a lopsided match-up that involves Michigan’s offense, which stands among the USFL’s worst units.

Sure, the Panthers game from Week 8 shot into a total-points stratosphere relative to most of the league’s point-total outcomes, but with few goals to play for against a benchmark of USFL quality in the New Jersey Generals, the Panthers could regress back into the doldrums of their debut in which Jeff Fisher’s team was held to 18 combined points in the opening 2 games.

New Jersey won’t want to burn up the entire playbook against a 2nd-straight mediocre opponent before facing the Philadelphia Stars on the next weekend, and then moving onward to Ohio for the playoffs. Don’t forget that many of Fisher’s worst NFL teams lost games by scores such as 21-13 as the defense tackled hard to no avail. Hard-hitting defense may be the final component to leave a losing USFL squad, given that players are toiling for NFL scouts.

WagerBop’s Pick: Under (46.5)

Birmingham Stallions vs Houston Gamblers (Saturday, June 11)

Birmingham (-12.5) has been shaky enough in victory to reduce action on the club’s markets. QB J’Mar Smith’s limitations make the Stallions a potentially dodgy pick in any game as a double-digit favorite ATS, but FanDuel’s odds-makers and speculators are each noting the standings, which place Birmingham first and Houston nearly dead-last, in addition to the USFL’s defensive team-stats ledger that also ranks the Gamblers last out of 8 units.

Perhaps a sitting-duck defense is exactly what it takes to get Smith’s passing game on track. But maybe it’s time to take a closer look at those stats.

Houston’s “last place” points-against average isn’t really that bad at just 1.2 points behind Philadelphia’s 21.6 average PPG allowed, and not even trailing the league’s best defenses by a full TD-per-game relinquished. Houston’s edge-rushers are flirting with a league lead in sacks. Furthermore, the favorites just clinched a division title last week, something players were probably nervous about, even as the gridiron media takes the expected news with a yawn.

Pressure is off temporarily, but coaches know their top priority is to keep the league’s consensus-best roster healthy, and to try to protect a QB who’s having more than enough issues with accuracy in spite of a long winning streak. If the Stallions gallop out to an early lead on Saturday, the club’s play-callers will dial things down to protect the pocket, just as sure as the Stallions will be in Ohio.

Remember that it’s difficult enough to win wagers on (-12.5) favorite’s point spreads when teams are trying for the blow out, let alone when the superior side would be happy with a 19-10 victory and no major lineup-losses.

WagerBop’s Pick: Houston Gamblers ATS (+12.5)

Tampa Bay Bandits vs New Orleans Breakers (Sunday, June 12)

Bandits vs Breakers is not only a marquee USFL kickoff in Week 9, it’s the only such engagement on a weekend otherwise filled with potentially boring games and cupcake opponents. Gamblers (excuse the pun as usual) will be playing to impress NFL scouts and for no other reason, while the awful Panthers are simply trying to get out of a game with powerful New Jersey without further chagrin after stinking up the Alabama gridiron since early spring.

Betting action isn’t tightening the Tampa-New Orleans point-spread market any more than FanDuel Sportsbook’s midweek underdog wager of Tampa Bay plus (+3.5) points ATS. The scrum’s O/U line is also holding fast at (43.5) total points, considerably under the mark of some of New Orleans’ final scores, but perhaps not fully taking into account how conservative the Bandits’ play-calling has grown since the very start of the USFL.

New Orleans’ flawed defense will give Haley’s offense just enough holes against which to poke and prod and produce half-field drives. Combined with Tampa Bay’s excellent defense, the formula could create another very low-scoring Tampa Bay Bandits result.

WagerBop’s Pick: Under (43.5)

Philadelphia Stars vs Pittsburgh Maulers (Sunday, June 12)

Bookmakers may have been too extreme in taking (-12.5) points from the Birmingham Stallions in Week 9, but WagerBop fancies that the bookies are perhaps “compensating” by going easy on the Pittsburgh Maulers (+8.5), another weak opponent for a USFL contender kicking-off this Sunday.

Pittsburgh’s pass rush is nothing like Houston’s, making the Maulers ripe for the picking against a balanced, dynamic offense, and a Philadelphia Stars club looking to clinch a postseason ticket. Stars quarterback Case Cookus was “cooking” with 5 total TDs in the Stars’ victory over Michigan last week, showing that at least a single, lonely USFL team is just fine going-for-broke through the air even when protecting a substantial lead on the scoreboard.

WagerBop’s Pick: Philadelphia Stars ATS (-8.5)