USFL Betting Odds: Opening Weekend USFL Lines, O/U Totals, and Picks

Bookmakers have seemingly learned their lesson from the XFL’s attempted relaunch in 2020, in which vastly disparate betting lines were cast for teams that analysts knew little about. XFL brands like the St. Louis Battlehawks made fools out of odds-makers who realized too late that there’s no such thing as “2-touchdown underdogs” in a league that just started.

Minor-league pigskin betting odds appear much more balanced prior to the United States Football League’s debut season in spring 2022. It’s rare for every team in a league to span less than a 100% difference in betting price from the 7/1 underdogs to the 4/1 favorites, but the popular picks are actually fatter than 4-to-1, and Pittsburgh is the 7/1 “Cinderella” pick.

Most of the popular picks have celebrity head coaches behind them. Former Tennessee Titans and St. Louis Rams skipper Jeff Fisher is in charge of the favored Michigan Panthers, while Todd Haley of Kansas City Chiefs and Arizona Cardinals acclaim is with Tampa Bay. Additionally, the departure of former Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Bruce Arians makes Haley the highest-profile football coach left in charge of a Tampa Bay based squad.

QB Jordan Ta’amu will join Haley in Tampa, an exciting dual-threat helmsman who lit up the XFL until COVID-19 forced the league to suspend. While the presence of Ta’amu may not be as galvanizing as Tom Brady’s surprise return in the Sunshine State, the parallels between NFL, college, and USFL pigskin are not merely exclusive to the Bandits.

Michigan, like the Panthers’ FBS counterparts on the Michigan Wolverines, is expected to play fearsome defense. Wolverine fans will be very familiar with likely starting Panther quarterback Shea Patterson. The New Orleans Breakers will be headed by Larry Fedora, a coaching mainstay of southeastern college football.

The moneyline and point-spread odds on the new USFL’s debut weekend may take Sin City’s errors from spring 2020 to the opposite extreme. 3 of the 4 games offer a current point spread of (-2.5) or just 2 and a half points separating the USFL opponents, less than field goals made, or a “3-point conversion” made from the 10-yard-line after a TD. Could it be that the USFL has succeeded in achieving league-wide parity before stepping onto the field, or are bookmakers overreaching in a bid to compensate for the mistakes of XFL handicapping?

New Jersey Generals at Birmingham Stallions (Saturday, April 16)

To reiterate, the USFL’s preseason championship “futures” odds are so remarkably balanced that there’s less than a 100% difference in betting price from the most-popular picks to the biggest “underdog” wagers. Yet, if the bookmakers are correct, the Birmingham Stallions and New Jersey Generals are the pair of teams with the worst chances to win an inaugural USFL championship, with each club sitting at 7-to-1 odds. Such news is potentially bad for USFL bosses, who’d love to see a thrilling battle between good teams in Saturday’s first contest.

Birmingham is a (-2.5) point-spread favorite thanks largely to home-field advantage and educated guesswork, but the game’s (42.5) Over/Under line doesn’t forecast an exciting clash of titans.

Is it possible that the teams will surprise with an inspired performance? Maybe not given the QB situation. Preseason injuries have forced New Jersey to turn to Luis Perez at QB in Week 1. Perez has achieved notoriety as a former soccer player who taught himself how to throw a football by using YouTube. But his statistics in minor-league games have been pedestrian following an initial flourish in the Alliance of American Football. QB Alex McGough could fare better for Birmingham following a solid sub-FBS college career, but he’s loose with the football, and could potentially wind-up killing drives with whiffed throws and interceptions.

WagerBop’s Pick: Under (42.5)

Houston Gamblers at Michigan Panthers (Sunday, April 17)

In spite of bright preseason betting lines and a (-2.5) point spread over visiting Houston in Week 1, this blogger predicts that the Michigan Panthers will finish last, not first, in the new USFL. Head coach Jeff Fisher regrettably fits the mold of an aging HC who won’t be inspired by new ideas while coaching a minor-league team. Mike Singletary became so disenchanted as an Alliance of American Football coach, for instance, that the former NFL skipper once ran-out the clock instead of kicking a 40-yard field goal in the 2nd quarter.

Fisher was tuned out for several seasons at the end of his NFL career in St. Louis, making it curious that bookmakers expect new tricks from an old hand.

WagerBop’s Pick: Houston (+2.5)

Philadelphia Stars at New Orleans Breakers (Sunday, April 17)

Historians should have a leg-up on handicapping New Orleans (-2.5) against Philadelphia in a game with a slightly more-optimistic O/U line of (43.5). The 1980s’ New Orleans Breakers spent a fortune to sign Marcus Dupree, an NFL Draft-ineligible tailback who briefly rivaled fellow USFL star Herschel Walker in size, speed, and ability. Dupree worked his way back into shape with the Breakers and sped away on several long runs, but was severely injured the next year. Speculators knew that Dupree was rarely a reliable performer, but the 21-year-old’s phenomenal ceiling of performance made New Orleans a team to watch out for.

This time around, New Orleans’ approach to the RB position couldn’t be any more different, with HC Larry Fedora drafting journeymen like Larry Rose and limited rushers like Jordan Ellis. Fedora’s penchant for wide formations and simple hand-offs could turn Sunday’s game in the Big Easy into the most boring Week 1 contest in the USFL.

WagerBop’s Pick: Under (43.5)

Tampa Bay Bandits at Pittsburgh Maulers (Sunday, April 17)

The odds on USFL debuts at FanDuel may take Sin City’s errors that were made bookmaking XFL football to the opposite extreme. All except a single Week 1 USFL kickoff currently offers a current point spread of (-2.5) or just 2 and a half points, less than a patented USFL “3-point conversion” from the 10-yard-line or a successful field-goal try.

The exception is the Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh contest, as the Bandits (-210) are nearly 5-point favorites on the spread in spite of traveling to play the club’s debut contest. Head coach Todd Haley and his quarterback Jordan Ta’amu are expected to have a sterling season with one another. Can Ta’amu be stopped by the Maulers?

CB Terrell Bonds was recently with the Baltimore Ravens, and will play behind a competent but limited front-7 lineup that isn’t likely to produce a lot of pocket pressure without an NFL or FBS-sized live crowd to manufacture chaos. Combined with Haley’s defense going up against former NFL quarterback Kyle Lauletta, the probable cat-and-mouse game between expert coaching staffs should create a fun prime-time battle and the highest point total of the week.

WagerBop’s Pick: Over (41.5)