UFC 273: Israel Adesanya vs. Robert Whittaker Preview, Odds, Prediction

Israel Adesanya and Robert Whittaker meet again. The Kiwi and the Aussie will again decide about the champion of the UFC middleweight division as they clash at Toyota Center in Houston this Saturday night. Unlike the last time, Adesanya is the champion, and the Whittaker comes in as the challenger. A lot has happened since their previous meeting, and we are sure that both fighters are in better shape than back at the UFC 243. These guys know another very well, and we should see one very interesting matchup.

Preview

Israel Adesanya (-255) comes in as the big favorite, and that shouldn’t be odd, as this guy never lost a battle in his division. Izzy’s only loss came against Jan Blachowicz, but that was in the battle for the light heavyweight title. The Kiwi recovered fast after that, and defeated Marvin Vettori at the UFC 263. Though, we need to say that he wasn’t flashy and confident as many expected.

Apart from his victory over Paulo Costa in his title defense at the UFC 253, Adesanya wasn’t anywhere near the hype that surrounded him. Against Romero, he was defensive-minded and tactical, and that was arguably one of the worst big matches in the past two years. Blachowicz was dominant using wrestling and grappling, while Vettori didn’t allow Izzy to impose his rhythm. Though, neither did Adesanya allow his counterpart to do anything notable.

We don’t need to say what are Izzy’s biggest weapons. Big reach and incredible quickness, combined with an extremely precise game plan. Unlike the majority of his rivals, Adesanya almost never leaves his tactics and stubbornly follows them even if it ruins the fight.

Robert Whittaker (+265) took an eight-month break after losing to Izzy. After that, he had three fights and won all of them via unanimous decision. The first one was against Darren Till, the second vs. Jared Cannonier, and the last vs. Kelvin Gastelum, who jumped in instead of Paulo Costa in the last minute, saving the event.

Even though these were all wins, we need to say that Whittaker slowly improved, probably recovering from a tough loss to Adesanya. He squeezed out a victory over Till, and was much more confident in the latter two events.

Kickboxing and standup clinches are his big weapon; though, we need to say that the Reaper knows his way around on the ground pretty well. In our opinion, that is his only chance to beat Adesanya, as we saw that the champion isn’t particularly strong on the mat.

Prediction

We already saw that Adesanya waits for his challengers and that he isn’t as aggressive as before. Once he smells the blood, there isn’t any help for the rival, but he usually awaits the counter-attacks and isn’t keen on attacking. Whittaker, too won’t be offensive, as he knows that such an approach would be the death penalty here. Izzy’s reach is way longer, so he needs to be careful.

Our pick here would be to bet on the fight to finish after the third round, which is to reach the fourth. The odds here are -170, which is quite good.

Pick: Over 3.5 rounds -170