NFL Conference Championship Playoffs: Preview, Betting Lines, Picks, and Bonus Prop Bet Predictions

There are many competing stories on the Rams, 49ers, Chiefs, and Bengals, the 4 survivors who will play for NFL conference titles this Sunday. But what counts as the most captivating “autopsy” on a fallen team whose season came to an end in last weekend’s Divisional Round?

Candidates are all over the place. Tom Brady’s defending champs finally succumbed to the hot-headed intemperate streak which characterized Tampa Bay on the sideline throughout early winter. We can safely say that the Buccaneers lost the game from last Sunday more than the Rams won it.

There’s not a quarterback on Earth who could have rescued Tampa Bay on his own. Los Angeles rode a precise, balanced offense and an exceptional pass rush to a 27-3 lead in the 3rd quarter, and the Rams would later enjoy 2 chances to go ahead by 17 points. But the Rams botched a snap and turned the football over at midfield with 10:00 left, and Los Angeles PK Matt Gay ballooned a 51-yard field-goal attempt short of the crossbar on the Rams’ next possession. Brady’s offense was incapable of driving the field consistently against L.A., but took advantage of turnovers, explosive special-teams, and a roaring crowd to claw toward a comeback. If Brady decides to retire this summer, he’ll have gone out having rattled the best team in a great division.

Aaron Rodgers’ poor 2nd half and subsequent last-minute loss at Lambeau Field could have repercussions far beyond The Pack losing out on the 2022 playoffs. Derrick Henry’s day was just as disappointing, though Nashville has QB questions of its own after watching Ryan Tannehill flunk against the Bengals.

But for gamblers looking to glean something from Week 20 before looking onward, Buffalo’s “demise” provides the best object lesson. Josh Allen couldn’t have played a better scrum in Kansas City, and WR Gabriel Davis probably made himself several million dollars in his next contract-bonus within 60:00 of game clock. Neither the Bills or Chiefs can be faulted for getting tired on defense at the end of that classic contest.

That’s a good leading angle for the NFC Championship Game in SoCal. The L.A. Rams are getting fried, baked, and toasted by the media after nearly blowing a seemingly safe lead to the Buccaneers. San Francisco, meanwhile, is celebrated for coming back to defeat “public enemy #1” Rodgers in Green Bay. But judging the teams’ disparate 4th quarters in the Divisional Round isn’t a solid angle for handicapping the next round…something that could help keep L.A’s odds favorable as the historic division bout nears.

AFC Championship Game Preview, Betting Lines, and O/U Pick

It is not the Cincinnati Bengals’ defense which accounts for the upstart AFC club’s (+7) point spread for Sunday. Indeed, if you’re an NFL playoff gambler looking to pair a tough defense with a brave QB in your next moneyline pick, look no further than Cincinnati.

Cincinnati’s front-7 held Derrick Henry to just 3.1 YPC in what was supposed to be a triumphant Divisional Round return for the seminal tailback. D’onta Foreman wound up leading the Titans in rushing yards, and a meek Tannehill was intercepted for a 3rd time to kill Tennessee’s chances late in the game.

There’s no faulting Joe Burrow‘s postseason performance for Cincy, either. The LSU product is everything that Bengal scouts hoped he would be and then some, as Burrow proves to be as durable and cool-headed on the scramble as he is accurate from the pocket in playoff games.

Cincinnati’s issues lie elsewhere on the gridiron. Burrow’s OL did everything but give away the 3-point victory in Nashville, allowing the youngster to be sacked in the pocket close to 10 times and hurried on more than a dozen other drop-backs. Kansas City’s defense is still vulnerable against elite opposing offenses, but the Chiefs’ obvious fatigue trying to defend Josh Allen’s dual threat in the Divisional Round won’t take effect unless Burrow makes as many explosive plays as Allen did throughout the course of 60 minutes.

Kansas City allowed a career day from Buffalo receiver Gabriel Davis, and yet scouts must look at Davis’ 201 yards and 4 touchdowns in the context of a track-meet style of contest.

Zac Taylor may be basking in historic playoff success, but he’s got exactly 1 game plan for Sunday that makes sense. The KC pass rush hasn’t been bludgeoning in the 2022 playoffs, but the Chiefs have 4 sacks in the postseason already, and Andy Reid’s defensive backs tend to make plays when there’s pressure on the opposing QB. In layman’s terms, Cincinnati could lose the game by 3 touchdowns while playing great defense, even as a terrific starting QB like Burrow does everything he can in the face of turnstile blocking.

Cincy’s only logical course is to hand the ball to RB Joe Mixon, and rehabilitate its OL on the fly with good old-fashioned downhill concepts. Does that call FanDuel’s (54.5) Over/Under line into question? Perhaps, but what’s more, a Kansas City injury perceived to aid Burrow in the passing game could actually work to help low-side gamblers win on the AFC Championship Game’s point total.

Tyrann “Honey Badger” Mathieu will miss Sunday’s kickoff while finishing concussion protocol. Without the Honey Badger, a defense’s chance to win the turnover battle diminishes somewhat, as the FS is among the finest ball-hawks in the National Football League. However, if Cincinnati’s offense is less turnover-prone when under duress from the Chiefs, it could help the Bengals keep the scoreboard tight. “QB Hurries” which end in skidding footballs and 4th-down punts are great for an “Under” pick. If the hosts snag 5 turnovers and return 2 for touchdowns, that’s bad for the low-side wager.

Superstar signal-caller Pat Mahomes won’t gallop in green pastures for the rest of Kansas City’s postseason trek. With the visiting offense limited in what it can try to do, look for the resurgent Cincy defense to play lights-out and frustrate the Chiefs for 2-3 quarters of Kansas City’s likely triumph.

Recommended Bet: Under (54.5)

Bonus Prop Betting Picks: Byron Pringle (Any-Time TD Scorer) (+170), Moneyline/Total Points Parlay: Kansas City to Win and Under (+175)

2022 NFC Championship Game Point-Spread Pick

Alumni of Big Ten and ACC pigskin must face a new/old reality in 2022: SEC division-winners lurking on the schedule, during the regular season or (especially) on New Year’s, are an indication that dear old alma mater will probably not win the game. Could the mighty NFC West be threatening to out-grow the NFL in similar fashion to the SEC lapping the Power-5?

Perhaps not, given a 32-team league designed to balance itself out every 2 or 3 seasons. However, it’s notable that when Los Angeles and San Francisco (+3.5) meet for the National Football Conference title on Sunday, the only comparable kickoff from the previous decade will be the Seahawks and 49ers’ battle for NFC gold from 2013. Circumstances already arose in which the NFC’s southwestern contenders – Arizona, Dallas, San Francisco, and the L.A. Rams – had to play each other in the 2022 Wild Card Round.

For the ’21-’22 Rams to have to play and win a 10th division rivalry game to earn the honor of hosting Super Bowl 56 on home turf is an almost unprecedented scenario.

Los Angeles is only a (-176) favorite to defeat San Fran and reach the big dance, a betting line that has as much to do with the Rams’ dodgy Divisional Round victory as the 49ers’ awesome display of courage at Lambeau Field. In danger of getting blown-out by halftime of a snowy contest, Kyle Shanahan’s team found a way to stifle Aaron Rodgers’ prolific attack while manufacturing the game’s winning points by hook, crook, or in-step. The Rams found themselves susceptible to exactly that kind of a scrappy comeback against Tampa Bay.

Those who’ve only watched the L.A. Rams play the final 15:00 in Tampa saw a portrait of a self-destructive football team last weekend. But it’s important for experienced pundits to maintain perspective after a club nearly blows a big lead, whether it’s against Tom Brady and the champs, or an ordinary foe in autumn.

2022’s NFC Championship Game hopefuls have played 30+ meaningful games in 2 calendar years, and are used to anxiety over blown leads in close-call victories. If anything, the syndrome can help a cocky defense “button up” and prepare for a more consistent follow-up game. Furthermore, the Mountain Goats have ignited a powder keg by pairing Aaron Donald and recent acquisition Von Miller on the pass rush.

The All-Pro linebacker was dealing with injury setbacks earlier in the campaign, but HC Sean McVay knew that his prized hire would likely be at 100% by late January. Los Angeles only sacked Tom Brady twice in the Divisional Round game, but the aerial-game legend produced just 308 passing yards on 54 attempts, and was hurried by the Rams on a majority of passing downs.

San Francisco could lose by 10-17 points on Sunday through no other disadvantage than bad luck. QB Jimmy Garoppolo‘s injury woes are so limiting that backup quarterback Trey Lance boasts a “6.2” DFS point projection from FanDuel’s computer this week. In other words, there’s a significant chance that Garoppolo will not stay upright enough to finish the game against a generational edge-rush.

There’s a virtual curse on the underdogs this weekend. Should San Fran or Cincy be dealing with other kinds of issues, like average run defense or injuries at safety, it would be less simple for the Rams and Chiefs to take advantage. But as it stands, each favorite is poised to punish the opposing QB physically on Sunday, a factor that happens to negate some of the Rams’ concerns over a badly-wounded defensive backfield.

Matt Stafford’s superior aerial-game efficiency could be enough to give Los Angeles a point-spread cover even if Garoppolo (or Lance) somehow evades the rush and avoids costly sacks and turnovers. That’s a potential “safety hatch” winning outcome ATS for those looking to pick an NFL playoff favorite in at least 1 of 2 scrums.

Recommended Bet: Rams (-3.5)

Bonus Prop Betting Pick: First Drive Result (FG Attempt) (+400)