Week 16 Odds and Best Bets: Chiefs vs Steelers O/U Line and MNF Upset Pick

We should have seen it coming, but the AFC is catching up to the NFC in late 2021.

Big duh, eh? Who could have thought a pro pigskin league would be just about as strong in one batch of 16 teams as in the other? But all sarcasm aside, more empirical evidence than a single September-October stretch of games has been behind NFL pundits touting the NFC.

In a league in which elite QBs are thought to be underpopulated, the National Football Conference can rely on billion-time Super Bowl winner Tom Brady, reigning regular-season MVP Aaron Rodgers, and Seattle’s Russell Wilson, who combine to form an old guard of NFL champions. Kyler Murray represents the new era of great NFC quarterbacks.

But despite Derrick Henry’s absence, there are still a number of all-time great difference makers handling the bean for AFC clubs. Pat Mahomes and “best QB in the game” cling in conjunction when Kansas City is playing the kind of football that the Chiefs are playing now. Bill Belichick of New England is the best head coach in the sport until proven otherwise.

Mahomes’ team isn’t a good bet to beat the Over/Under in Week 16. That’s because COVID-19 is ravaging the Chiefs’ dressing room again, just as NFL games become as vulnerable to postponements and last-minute roster changes as they were in 2020. Which superstar difference-makers remain on the active NFL ledger for this Sunday, and which teams are faced with such medical-room adversity that even a Mahomes can’t help?

As a precaution against further “pushed” wagers due to game cancellations, WagerBop is skipping Thursday and Saturday’s games in our prediction column this week. Gamblers should be able to track news cycles on the week’s latest slated kickoffs, and have a decent idea if the kickoff will occur as planned by Sunday afternoon – along with who’ll be on the field and who’ll be watching from sterilized living quarters in a 5-day quarantine.

NFL Week 16 Odds, Lines, and Predictions

Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons (Sunday, December 26)

Gamblers should not overreact when a cellar team wins. Notwithstanding that point, Detroit’s marvelous upset of Arizona in Week 15 should have at least helped the Lions attain more than a (+6) point spread for Sunday’s kickoff in Atlanta.

Atlanta has won twice as many games as the Detroit Lions, that much is true. However, the Falcons are also 1-5 at home in 2021. Doomsayers who’ve tracked the sad-sack NFL year in Detroit will poke at injuries and deficiencies, and raise the age-old questions about QB Jared Goff‘s consistency, before considering the underdogs’ ATS. Consider instead that the Lions have a sturdy roster of mobile athletes, at least for a team with a horrible W/L record. Detroit’s ability to move the ball and force 3-and-outs, if not reflected in the league standings, is reflected in the Lions’ 9-5 record vs. the spread.

Reports this week indicate that 60% of the betting public is taking Detroit to cover (+6) in Atlanta on Sunday. Don’t “fade the public” this time – run with the pack of Lions.

Recommended Bet: Lions (+6)

Los Angeles Rams at Minnesota Vikings (Sunday, December 26)

Mountain Goats QB Matt Stafford showed flashes of fading form in October and November, as he often did late in dreary seasons in Detroit. But that was before Stafford upended the plot by steering the Rams to key division wins, leading a brilliant take-down of Arizona’s Kyler Murray in Week 14 and going on to beat Seattle with 2 more TD passes on Tuesday. Whatever can be said about Stafford in comparison to Pat Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, and Tom Brady, he has helped to transform WR Cooper Kupp into the hottest pass-catcher in the NFL as of Week 16. Meanwhile, Arizona’s slip-up in Motor City gives L.A. a good chance to win the NFC West after all.

The L.A. Rams face a tough road trip over the next 2 weeks, as the Minnesota Vikings and Baltimore Ravens host the Rams as desperate playoff hopefuls. Defending against Kupp is like sitting on a loaded powder-keg at this point, and Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins is experienced enough to look for big plays from the outset of Sunday’s indoor contest. FanDuel Sportsbook’s O/U line of (49.5) points is higher than it appears, for the same reason “99 cents” seems substantially less than a dollar.

But there are only so many NFL teams flourishing at QB enough to feel comfortable in a 4-quarter shoot-out whenever it occurs. The Vikings and Rams are among them.

Recommended Bet: Over (49.5)

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday, December 26)

Pittsburgh may be planning to move on from Big Ben’s retirement, but the Steelers are not planning to move on from the 2021-22 NFL season anytime soon. Pittsburgh upset Tennessee to get back above .500 and remains a tough out when on the road. So why, exactly, are the Kansas City Chiefs a (-7.5) favorite over Mike Tomlin’s team on Boxing Day?

Not because the Chiefs have a full lineup. Indications are that as many as 11 Kansas City players have tested COVID-19 positive within a few days, while less than half as many Pittsburgh athletes have suffered the same ordeal. That means the Steelers could have tremendous advantages as a wager ATS at (+7.5) – if the game occurs as scheduled.

Kansas City bettors (giving almost 8 points) are counting on the club’s overall play vying for best in the NFL over the past several weeks. KC’s defense was finally pierced by Justin Herbert and the L.A. Chargers in the 2nd quarter of Week 15’s division battle, but the Pat Mahomes-to-Travis Kelce connection proved to be unstoppable yet again as the superstar tight end scored twice to lift Kansas City to a 34-28 overtime victory.

Favorites’ takers are also thinking about a potential postponed kickoff helping the Chiefs, not the Steelers. Postponed games tend to be cautious and lower-scoring, making the best “COVID-19 awareness bet” the low-side of a (44.5) O/U point total.

Recommended Bet: Under (44.5)

Washington Football Team at Dallas Cowboys (Sunday Night Football)

Yet another Dallas Cowboys point spread has been set extremely wide in anticipation of recreational holiday betting.

Cowboys (-10) might seem like a logical point spread for Sunday Night Football given WTF’s proximity to massive COVID-19 outbreaks and the chances of something happening to Washington Football Team similar to the Denver Broncos’ QB-less plight during an outbreak in the 2020-21 season. The Dallas defense is playing outstanding football, and saved the Cowboys from what could have been an anxious 4th frame in NYC.

And still a rivalry game is a rivalry game, and it’s not as if a perfect team is welcoming Sunday’s shorthanded underdog. Dak Prescott was the victim of faulty pass protection against the Giants last weekend, and Ezekiel Elliott rushed for under 40 yards as OC Kellen Moore’s run-pass ratio was once again too unbalanced for the circumstances.

If the contest is postponed due to too many positive tests for Washington, the point spread will shrink as WFT is allowed extra time to recover and prepare.

Recommended Bet: WFT (+10)

Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints (Monday Night Football)

MNF’s Over/Under line is cast at a dull, pessimistic (38.5) total points following QB Taysom Hill’s dual-threat performance in New Orleans’ 9-0 upset win over Tampa.

If the New Orleans Saints (-3) are expected to control the contest in Magic City, it’s not because the offense was any more effective against the Buccaneers than a defense that pitched a shut-out and forced Tom Brady to cough up the pigskin. In fact, Old Gold’s victory in Week 15 can be written off as an outlier. Tom Brady passed for over 200 yards, and a pair of turnovers should not have doomed the defending Super Bowl champs to a scoreless 60:00. Tampa Bay ran 12 more plays than New Orleans, was the far better team at converting on 3rd down, and only took half as many penalties as the visitors. The Saints managed the upset win despite rushing for minimal yardage, which given how badly New Orleans wants to run the rock with Hill behind center, is not a promising sign.

Miami has climbed out of the cellar and is among the more dangerous AFC opponents who aren’t leading a division. Bettors should ignore the cautious O/U line altogether and pick the superior side. The Fins aren’t bound to be shut-out on Monday night.

Recommended Bet: Dolphins (+132)