2021 Army vs Navy Odds, Spread, and Picks: Will the Game’s Crazy O/U Streak Continue?

Rivalry scrums often have a delayed effect on college football teams, such as Michigan State collapsing with fatigue after beating Michigan this year, while Jim Harbaugh’s playoff-bound Wolverines managed to recover and climb back into the driver’s seat in the Big Ten.

As for the outcome of a rivalry game itself, fans understand that kids are going to play harder than usual, and yet that doesn’t necessarily make the score any more or less predictable. Sloppy games in which effort ebbs and flows can be just as chaotic and difficult to wager live or in pre-game.

But the Army vs Navy battle has felt more inscrutable than most since 2017, when Army linebacker John Voit shoe-tackled Navy quarterback Malcolm Perry in ice and snow of Philadelphia, saving what would have been a crucial opposing touchdown (and also the day) for a Black Knights team that was just beginning to perfect the “4th quarter death march” under prodigal head coach Jeff Monken.

If point-spread gamblers can’t predict that the fastest player at any service academy won’t out-run modestly-paced LBs, then what are we doing trying to pick bets on the Army-Navy Game? Conversely, though, there are some extra weapons at an FBS handicapper’s disposal when a game’s monopoly on Saturday afternoon TV creates laser-focus on the kickoff’s recent history and trends.

For instance, the current Over/Under trend in Army vs Navy games is surreal, something casual pigskin gamblers must see for themselves in order to believe. Yes, people who watch the Army-Navy Game every year can tell you exactly how it’s happening. Those who merely look at each team’s other scores leading up to the Commander-in-Chief capper must think the Midshipmen and Black Knights replace their QBs with lava lamps, right during the pregame oration of “Fields of Friendly Strife.”

O/U forecasts on Army vs Navy have become so hard to deal with that WagerBop is saving it for the end this time. First, onward to 2 other main markets with less of a “curse” on 1 side.

Moneyline Odds on Saturday’s Army-Navy Game

Saturday gamblers must frequently stress-out over outcomes like “Hawaii 37, UNLV 24” while old-fashioned prudes get to focus on Michigan, Alabama, and Clemson before turning the TV off. But when it’s time for the annual Army-Navy Game, sports-betting enthusiasts look like the lucky ones.

CFP analysts don’t find the Army-Navy Game that interesting to tout. Power-5 fans who love watching high-scoring attacks are not entranced by a rivalry game that seldom totals over 40 points. But for gamblers, the Army-Navy Game is a fascinating study in match-ups, line movement, and “Flexbone” option offenses. Successfully betting the Army-Navy Game can be like picking a “Mirror Match” winner from Mortal Kombat, except that the explosions at the end are just sky rockets.

The Black Knights come into 2021’s clash with a (-300) moneyline and the chance to seal an undisputed Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy for a 2nd consecutive year. Navy’s powerhouse success came to a screeching halt in 2020 thanks to the COVID-19 crisis and Malcolm Perry’s graduation, but the Midshipmen have scored 73 points in 2 games since their 2nd from most-recent week off.

Should West Point head coach Jeff Monken succeed in building a win streak over Navy, it will not last as long as Navy’s epic 2002-2015 streak of mastery. Navy has grown into a legitimate top-40 commodity under HC Ken Niumatalolo, and former QB-turned-NFL “slash” player Malcolm Perry’s 4th-quarter heroics against Kansas State transformed the Liberty Bowl into a treat.

That being said, even the best service-academy teams have problems along the way. Navy was hit as hard as any active program by the coronavirus outbreak of 2020, which forced the Midshipmen into non-contact-only practices prior to an embarrassing debut loss to BYU. Niumatalolo’s charges rallied in early fall before collapsing to finish 3-7, and the woes have continued throughout 2021 as no heir-apparent to Perry has stepped up at the quarterback position.

Were it not for some recent encouraging signs, Navy’s (+250) underdog odds to beat Army on Saturday would be even longer. The Middies claimed their 3rd victory of the year on Thanksgiving weekend in a 38-14 win over AAC rival Temple. Navy can also claim to have bothered a pair of CFP candidates in 2021, having drawn first blood in a 34-6 loss to Notre Dame and—more impressively—having lost to Cincinnati just 27-20.

But the Mids of 2021 are not a good bet to upset a superior team. Navy’s offense was abysmal in its Commander-in-Chief opener, a 23-3 loss to Air Force in which Niumatalolo’s leading rusher was QB Xaxier Arline with 31 yards. The outcome led to the temporary firing and ultimate demotion of former OC Ivin Jasper, an impetuous move by Naval Academy brass that has caused friction between admirals, the head coach, and boosters in Annapolis.

A weak 2021 schedule, not necessarily anti-“triple option” bias, is the culprit behind why Army, a physical, dangerous, and consistent team, has suffered in national polls. West Point’s lone slump of the regular season included a close defeat at Wisconsin and a wild shoot-out loss to Wake Forest. Army rebounded to beat Air Force 21-14 behind a nice passing day from Christian Anderson and comes into Saturday afternoon’s kickoff at MetLife Stadium having won 3 more consecutive games by double-digits. The Black Knights can reach 10 wins for the 2nd time since 2018.

Army’s QB? Nice passing day? It’s not an uncommon sight this season. Flexbone teams don’t just run into the line and pitch out, after all. It helps to remember that Paul Johnson invented Army and Navy’s playbook while coaching the Run-and-Shoot from a similar base formation. Army’s 12.1 YPA mark with Anderson at the helm gives the Black Knights an amazing #1 rank in pass-play efficiency in the FBS in 2021. Meanwhile, the team rushes for 300 yards per game.

Army is a poor stand-alone pick on the moneyline thanks to West Point’s thin (-300) odds to win. Further, there are no other CFB games on Saturday to parlay a 1-to-3 bet with!

Those who choose to pick Army without giving any points ATS can parlay their Army-Navy Game bets with a similar line on the NFL’s next-day slate, for instance the New Orleans Saints’ (-240) moneyline odds to beat the struggling New York Jets on Sunday.

Army vs. Navy Moneyline Pick: Army (-300) w/ Parlay

Army-Navy Game Point-Spread Prediction

Saturday’s (-7.5) point spread on the Black Knights dares gamblers to guess whether Navy can hang within a “natural” touchdown of Army.

Army’s point-spread gamblers could benefit by the favorites’ superiority in generating big plays, a secret weapon of Flexbone-option teams that belies the system’s reputation as “caveman ball.” Curly Lambeau introduced the Spread Offense more than 50 years before Flexbone play designs entered the landscape, but not even the Green Bay legend could save the Navy offense from its nickel-and-dime status in 2021. Navy isn’t even averaging 4+ yards per carry, a devastating statistic for a service academy team. It’s not Ivan Jasper’s concepts, but a drop in OL play and the lack of a downfield passing game that’s dooming the Navy offense to short gains.

Despite the Las Vegas odds, Army can’t expect to produce a wealth of 20+ yard plays against a spiteful Navy defense with nothing to lose. Navy’s front-7 has gotten more athletic if not more effective against high-powered AAC teams, and it’s important to note how different Army and Navy’s win-loss records might look if Army had to contend with the “Power-6” while the Mids enjoyed mid-season games against the Sun Belt and the MAC.

Linebackers of service-academy schools are experts at “stepping out,” or quickly feinting outside to prevent the opposing QB from pitching to a fast slot-back, without giving up pursuit of the fullback. That tactical point is responsible for as many tight Army-Navy battles as any other measure.

Annapolis is a bright 7-4 ATS. If a Navy team awash in mid-season controversy came within a TD of Cincinnati, a more focused and optimistic December lineup should at least prevent Army from prevailing in a blowout battle.

Army vs. Navy Pick ATS: Navy (+7.5)

O/U Betting on the 2021 Army-Navy Game

WagerBop was all set to recommend the “Under” pick on a rising O/U line of 36 points, but turns out the initial flurry of “Over” bets was just recreational gamblers throwing a party.

Most of the FBS betting public had the same idea as our pigskin blog staff about a rising Over/Under line for the Army-Navy Game. It’s crazy to think that “sharp” line movement will strike the “Over” market in Week 15 given the recent series history. Point-total markets on the 2021 kickoff have quickly adjusted to an O/U of (34) points.

Army’s high-scoring outcomes have, in part, drove bookmakers to low-ball the O/U number. But on another crucial tack, Army shut-out Navy in last season’s 15-0 win, and the contest has been hitting the low-side of Over/Under totals as consistently as any annual series in sports. In fact, it’s been more than a decade since a pregame “Over” bet paid off on Army vs. Navy, and the last 40+ point total game occurred in 2013. Scant angles favoring the early rush of “O(36)” wagers were based on Navy’s penchant for successful razzle-dazzle and Army’s dynamic play-selection.

Speculators can think of the Flexbone’s clock-killing factor as a big, fat “Yule” log that needs a lot of kindling to burn. “Kindling” involves the flame of a tough defense that knows what it’s doing against the Flex. When a defense plays Army poorly, the Black Knights can fly up the field against bigger and faster players, just like West Point did against Wake Forest. When a defense does everything right, Army is likely to move just 3 to 5 yards per play.

The weather forecast at MetLife Stadium for this Saturday calls for potential rain. It’s hard to predict if Army’s newfound aerial weapons will bother Navy’s swift defense worse than usual in dodgy conditions, but we already know Navy’s offense is unlikely to go anywhere fast. With at least half of the Over/Under equation set in stone, it’s those pesky “Under (36)” gamblers who’ll be pleased to sit back and relax with their early selections.

It could be risky to take the low-side of O/U (33) or (34). Defensive TDs aren’t uncommon when Army-Navy is played in cold, sloppy conditions. Army’s offense can’t be stopped for 4 quarters if there’s no QB on the field who can spark Navy. If the Naval Academy’s offense wakes up, then (34) points will look thin for other reasons altogether.

Saturday’s O/U gamblers should wait for another line shift – or look for nice payoff odds on any alternate lines close to (40) points. 5 TDs wouldn’t be impossible for 2021’s academy rosters … but “31-28” would be nothing short of a dream score.

Army vs. Navy O/U Pick: No Bet on Current Line