NFL Week 13 Odds: Bears vs Cardinals Spread Prediction and MNF Over/Under Pick

There is a chance that old friends and familiar faces are poised to take over the National Football League in December. Pat Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are alive and well thanks to a revamped defense that quieted the Dallas Cowboys in a 4th straight victory going into last week’s bye. Bill Belichick is on a winning streak that may prove once and for all that The Hoodie’s success in New England is not inexorably tied to having a superstar QB. Aaron Rodgers has out-played the 2 best quarterbacks of the NFC West, Kyler Murray and Matt Stafford, in marquee triumphs.

But there’s another possibility – that the 5-month schedule of 2021-22’s NFL has caused a predictable, even orchestrated, dip in productivity from the best rosters of The Shield. Handicappers may be forgiven for not factoring too many new angles into Las Vegas odds based on the NFL season featuring 17 regular-season games per team, instead of 16. It’s a negligible difference in sample size and cannot not a fundamental change in how NFL franchises deal with injuries and long-term fatigue.

Pundits probably expected NFL coaches to compensate for the extra 60:00 of starting-22 minutes by lessening a squad’s workload at other times, like when professional golfers were forced to play faster shots and simply walked faster in between shots instead of following the PGA’s precise instructions. (Most head coaches play and follow golf, making it likely that some NFL skippers learn from Tiger Woods and others who’ve made a science out of maximizing time and stamina. For means of learning how to avoid injuries, of course, other golfers make much better examples than Mr. Woods).

After all, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell (bless his 300 million-$$$ heart) was kindly enough to cancel 1 preseason game out of 4. Technically, some analysts believe, there’s not much difference between what players faced in a 16-game season and what they’re waist-deep into now.

Ah, but the psychology of a gridiron season that lasts from late summer into mid-winter – before even getting to the playoffs – is another animal completely. Coaches must structure their own “mental games” just like players, and the reality a schedule that takes a pro football team from 100-degree weather to the blustery snow of January before climbing the Super Bowl mountain has hit home to NFL skippers. The marathon-mentality is inherent among the scores of former college coaches now playing key roles for The Shield and influencing numerous old-school coaches along the way. We can expect great teams to start strong, finish strong, and swoon in the middle of the campaign. Their coaches certainly prefer that to the alternative.

You don’t win the Iditarod by recklessly breaking away from the pack at the halfway mark. Coaches like Kliff Kingsbury of Arizona are being extremely cautious with premier talent, to the point that the Cardinals have almost enjoyed an “interim” season without their top QB-WR connection. Frighteningly enough for other contenders, even AZ’s “interim” year has been a winning effort.

“The Pope” himself coached offense at Army West Point before taking over the Green Bay Packers in 1959, and Vince Lombardi’s formula for championships does specify that any slump that occurs needs to occur prior to the stretch run. We’d be in the home stretch of the NFL season already, once upon a time. But coaches with big-time weapons on hand know that the “final turn” is still upcoming.

There are some NFL playoff contenders who look bound to slip and miss that turn completely, as is always the case. Identifying who’s bound for positive reversion – and who’s ready to fall off a cliff – could be the leading factor in achieving a winning picks-record and a profit this Sunday.

Lines, Point Spreads, and Picks on the NFL in Week 13

Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints (Thursday Night Football)

The Dallas Cowboys opened as a (-5) TNF point-spread favorite, and despite the status of Dak Prescott’s team among the most popular “good luck” recreational betting picks in Las Vegas, quickly dropped to (-4.5). But gamblers can simply turn on a TV to get news and analysis on the Cowboys. What is it about New Orleans specifically that gives speculators confidence in the Saints to cover ATS, given that Old Gold barely managed a touchdown against visiting Buffalo in last weekend’s 31-6 loss?

New Orleans leads the NFL in opposing yards per rush attempt, holding rival RBs to a scary 3.4 YPC through 44 quarters. Even in defeat to Buffalo, the 5-6 Saints held opposing tailback Devin Singletary to minimal yardage. The narrative plays into a standard line of thinking on the Cowboys – that Prescott relies on a healthy ground game and becomes ineffective without linebacker-freezing run fakes. That angle is true for every QB in the NFL to some extent, but overlooks Prescott’s ability to be his own chain-moving rushing threat on 3rd down. However, there’s no doubt that the character of Ezekiel Elliott’s night will greatly impact the Dallas Cowboys’ chances to secure a win.

Tampa Bay and Denver are the only teams Dallas has faced with comparable run defenses. Elliott’s backfield produced against the Buccaneers but shrank in the latter contest, a 30-16 loss for the Cowboys. The Broncos didn’t stop “Zeke” on the ground so much, though. The Cowboys couldn’t get off the field on 3rd downs, leaving Prescott only 57 snaps in the battle with the Broncos.

With a defense that’s improved since then, we’re guessing the TNF guests can conquer a Saints team that’s backsliding fast in its division.

Recommended bet: Cowboys (-4.5)

Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears (Sunday, December 5th)

Kyler Murray’s anticipated return has Arizona boasting a (-7.5) line for Sunday, but respect for the Chicago defense is holding the O/U total at (45.5). Even if Murray doesn’t take the field, though, the Big Red has shown signs of snapping out of a brief midseason funk.

QB Colt McCoy returned to the lineup vs Seattle despite not being much healthier than Murray, and steered Arizona to yet another road win to run the Cardinals’ road record to 6-0. Seattle’s offense looked a step too slow to block a visiting front-7 that includes 2 of the NFL’s leading sack masters in Chandler Jones and Marcus Golden. Zach Ertz is also having a renaissance at tight end.

Meanwhile, the Chicago Bears are tired of head coach Matt Nagy, and barely triumphed over the winless Lions on Thanksgiving. Murray matches up well against “tough” NFL defenses, since the dual-threat is talented enough to score on a Pro Bowl team’s secondary when his offense is clicking. Predictions of rain, cold, and wind make the total a higher-percentage early market than a side, though Arizona will be lovely at (-7) if the spread moves with the weather reports.

Recommended bets: Arizona ATS and Under (45.5)

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday, December 5th)

The schedule for Sunday’s late afternoon games is highlighted by sharp line-movement toward the Baltimore Ravens (-4.5) and away from the shell-shocked Steelers. Pittsburgh stands at 5-5 and nominally in contention in a bunched AFC race. But the Black & Gold could be facing a long-dreaded reckoning at the QB position, as an aging Big Ben has never looked less effective on the field.

The “statement” win of Week 12 was Cincinnati’s 31-point beatdown of Pittsburgh, but the statement was as much about the untimely decay of the Steelers as the arrival of Cincy as a playoff contender. Baltimore’s most obvious game plan vs Pittsburgh would be to throw deep and score quickly without putting Lamar Jackson in harm’s way. There was a time when Mike Tomlin’s defense would salivate over a scenario like that, but the Steelers have no Myles Garrett with which to beat Baltimore’s OL and force Jackson into making untimely errors.

Recommended bet: Ravens (-4.5)

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (Sunday, December 5th)

Las Vegas handicappers are imagining an NFL home-field advantage that simply isn’t there – at least not at the present time. Seattle is downtrodden at 3-8 and likely to blunder on a chilly day in front of skeptical host fans, while the San Francisco 49ers come in following several encouraging performances on offense to go with a crucial 3-game active winning streak. That should be enough to make San Fran more than a paltry (-3.5) favorite in a game with an Over/Under line that is highly optimistic.

Recommended bet: 49ers (-3.5) and Under (45.5)

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday Night Football)

Kansas City’s surging effort to secure a playoff spot faces a huge obstacle in Week 13, as KC (-10) plays SNF host to Vic Fangio’s squad.

After trading away All-Pros and pigeonholing NFL quarterbacks in his own image, Denver Bronco honcho John Elway could be poised to pay a karmic price. However, those angles matter less than usual when a team is tackling its tails off. Denver has somehow played its way above .500 despite Von Miller’s departure and an offense that’s as flaky as ever.

The good news for the offense-oriented Chiefs is that 2021’s fall temperatures are exceptionally mild in the Midwest. The bad news? Rain and wind are in the forecast.

Recommended bet: Broncos (+10)

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (Monday Night Football)

New England has won 6 games in a row in The Hoodie’s finest hour since Tom Brady left Boston. The Pats likely need only 1 win out of 2 games vs Buffalo to earn a division title, but coach Bill Belichick is nothing if not greedy when it comes to expanding his winning record.

The Bills appeared to right the ship somewhat in Week 12, as the team held former Denver QB Trevor Siemian to just 163 yards passing in a 31-6 romp. Buffalo’s pass defense can make a case as the best in the business, helping QB Josh Allen’s club to a (-2.5) favorite’s point spread for Monday.

The “Over” predictions against a standard (43.5) O/U line seem to run into a problematic angle for football fans. Belichick could try to control the prime-time contest by running for 1st downs and chewing clock to help ease any undue pressure on young QB Mac Jones.

But the Bills stiffened against the run in Week 12 after getting embarrassed by Indy RB Jonathan Taylor. Beantown’s trademark backfield-by-committee may not be enough to overtax the Bills’ pursuit and sustain Patriot drives. If that scenario occurs, look for Jones to sink or swim against a talented group of DBs while Allen continues to try and throw his way out of a slump.

13+ points-off-turnovers could be enough to make O/U markets appear foolish.

Recommended bet: Over (43.5)