FBS Week 10 Betting Preview: Prime-Time ATS Picks and Kentucky at Vanderbilt O/U Wager

There’s no way around it – WagerBop had an awful time predicting college football last weekend.

Georgia State’s “methodical” defense turned out to be more than athletic enough to slow down Louisiana in prime time, and things went downhill as the weekend progressed. Our Sunflower Showdown pick was technically omitted by mistake, though readers could tell we thought KU would cover a wide spread. Kansas State would win by 25 points and cover by a margin of 0.5.

Michigan State lost to Purdue, emphasizing that no amount of work ethic and rah-rah rhetoric can overcome a good old rivalry-game hangover. Mizzou’s defense actually looked OK against Georgia at times, ruining our afternoon O/U pick on the SEC while going down in the books as a minor miracle.

Hell, even a Hawaii home game finished with just 27 points scored. That as bizarre as ACDC having a drummer named “Phil” and not “Pocket.”

How can we turn it around in Week 11? For a start, no more assuming that teams are overwhelmed by the speed and size of opponents in a season full of 6th-year Super Seniors roaming the turf. Yes, many of the FBS veterans are physically mature and imposing, but the very best 5th-year players (and 2nd, 3rd, and 4th-year players) have moved on to the NFL, and the wealth of experience on .500 teams ensures that if nothing else, scores will be tighter than expected even at times when 1 side’s skill players are touted as dominant. Superior teams still win and cupcakes still fail to cover, but everyone in between has a floor and a ceiling 100 points apart, just like in pro football.

Friday Night Lights has become “NCAA”-itized in the 21st century. Why wouldn’t college pigskin become more like the NFL? Let’s try to give the “New York Jets” of the FBS world – like USF for instance – a little more credit for those high ceilings while watching-out for signs of a potential flop.

FBS Week 11 Lines, Previews, and Picks

11/11 (Thursday): North Carolina Tar Heels at Pittsburgh Panthers

Virginia Tech and Boston College produced the low-ball final score everyone was expecting. It’s safe to say Las Vegas expects a different kind of outcome to occur in Pittsburgh this Thursday night, with the Panthers cast as a favored (-6.5) point spread pick for a game with a stratospheric Over/Under line of (73.5) points.

The Tar Heels have played in 3 consecutive slug-fests and emerged with 2 victories, outlasting the Miami Hurricanes 45-42 and spoiling Wake Forest’s bid for an undefeated season with a surreal 58-55 triumph last week.

There’s no doubt that North Carolina is looking forward to playing less dangerous offensive teams, but a relaxing schedule may prove to be no elixir for a unit that lagged against mid-tier rivals Virginia and Georgia Tech early in ’21.

Knowing that UNC is vulnerable to explosive attacks, the question bettors must ask is whether Pittsburg comes in with enough mojo to grab and maintain a 1st-half lead.

WR Jordan Addison and other key playmakers will assure Pittsburg of not going stale on offense. However, the Panthers have been underwhelming at home, losing to Miami and Western Michigan while whiffing on opportunities to blow-out Clemson in what became an anxious win. Pittsburg is a weak (-6.5) point-spread pick since the margin is partially relying on another shoot-out taking place.

Recommended bet: North Carolina (+6.5)

11/12 (Friday): Cincinnati Bearcats at South Florida Bulls

The plight of Cincinnati is familiar to fans of Group-of-5 spoilers. Bearcat football is unbeaten in ’21, but the team is ranked a lowly #6 by the College Football Playoff committee due to Cincy’s thin margins-of-victory against mid-level opponents in the AAC.

The Bearcats’ 28-20 win over Tulsa last weekend could not have looked any shakier. Cincinnati nearly squandered a 16-point lead in the final 15:00, fumbling an attempted kneel-down to give the 3-6 Golden Hurricane a final chance at upsetting the CFP apple cart.

Analysts were quick to point out that Tulsa’s talent goes beyond what’s expected of a losing team in the American Athletic Conference, but the Golden Hurricane is the same basic brand that fell to UC Davis and Navy earlier in the season.

The Bulls (+20.5) showed signs of life on offense in their loss to Houston in Week 10. Though South Florida stands at a pitiful 2-7, the team only needs to score a handful of points to cover the spread against a defense-oriented favorite.

Cincinnati is well aware of the G5 margin-of-victory taboo and will not hesitate to score mop-up TDs, but a 28-13 final score is far more likely out of USF vs Cincinnati than one with a larger point total.

Recommended bet: South Florida (+20.5)

11/13 (Saturday): Michigan Wolverines at Penn State Nittany Lions

The Michigan Wolverines are a measly (-114) moneyline favorite against Penn State this weekend. The Nittany Lions are only 3-3 in Big Ten competition and rank just 6th in the conference in total offense, so what could explain the tighter-than-expected odds?

Penn State was bothered by Villanova before losing to Illinois in Happy Valley this season. Meanwhile, the Michigan Wolverines are all-but-unbeaten in 2021 with a 29-7 romp over Indiana last weekend and a commanding road victory at Wisconsin before that.

Of course, there is always a method to the madness in Las Vegas. Michigan is beset by injuries on offense, including wounds to QB Cade McNamara, 2 of the signal-caller’s reliable RBs, and a host of receivers and tight ends. Similar to the Arizona Cardinals’ task against San Francisco last Sunday, the Wolverines must win with a less than ideal lineup.

At (48.5) total points, FanDuel’s Over/Under line on Penn State vs Michigan appears to split the difference between the teams’ scoring averages and PPG defense averages. But that’s probably too simplistic of a handicap to accurately apply this Saturday. Watch for Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh to lean on Hassan Haskins, a tailback who somehow avoided the crush of injuries. Penn State will also respond with cautious body-blows from its end.

Recommended bet: Under (48.5)

11/13 (Saturday): Purdue Boilermakers at Ohio State Buckeyes

CFB odds-makers are calling for Ohio State (-20.5) to clobber visiting Purdue this week. The Boilermakers may be 6-3 overall, but the team has been lion-tamers in 2021, out-scoring Notre Dame in the 3rd quarter of a 27-13 loss and defeating Iowa and MSU by double-digits.

Though a wider gap does exist between #6 and #30 in the AP poll than the corresponding ranked NFL teams, battles between Power-5 conference foes play-out like Sunday’s NFL games more often than they resemble lopsided Friday night snoozers.

That means 3-TD point spread picks on favorites must be made with extreme caution. Purdue hasn’t lost a game by more than a couple of scores this season, and we don’t expect that trend to snap on any road trip … even to Columbus.

After all, we wouldn’t call Tampa Bay a 21-point NFL favorite over Cincinnati, unless the Bengals looked as hapless on the field as Rutgers has this season.

Recommended bet: Purdue (+20.5)

11/13 (Saturday): Kentucky Wildcats at Vanderbilt Commodores

If you are looking for an exaggerated line on a P5 team not even playing at home, the (-20.5) point spread on the Kentucky Wildcats this Saturday should stop your search. There’s no doubt Vanderbilt represents a weak SEC opponent, but several factors could prevent Kentucky from covering 3 TDs.

Vanderbilt has recovered from terrible defensive outings in midseason to become more stubborn in late fall, and Kentucky has produced only 46 points in its last 3 road games. What’s more, the Wildcats are on a losing streak, and coaches will be careful trying to ensure the visitors earn a precious W with any final score.

Look for Mark Stoops to emphasize the run and rely on UK’s defense.

Recommended bet: Under (52.5) and Vanderbilt (+20.5)

11/13 (Saturday): Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Virginia Cavaliers

Saturday night’s matchup between Notre Dame (-5.5) and Virginia has too tight of a point spread considering UV’s style.

UV stands at 6-3, but the Cavaliers’ pass-happy style may not flourish against UND, which has beaten every Power-5 team on its schedule and owns a 28-point victory at Wisconsin.

If anything, Notre Dame has been a little shakier at home. Some of the 20+ points taken from Kentucky should have been spent on the Fighting Irish.

Recommended bet: Notre Dame (-5.5)