English Premier League Odds: Matchday 2 Goal Totals and Moneyline Picks

The media loves a simple narrative, even when it’s based on a statistical fluke. Matchday 1 of the new English Premier League season has been called “simply crazy” after all 10 fixtures ended in regulation victories.

10 league matches without any drawn scores really isn’t that extraordinary. In fact, it probably portends nothing about the shape 2021-22’s Premier League table is taking. Sure, a few back lines might have been less cohesive, and less stubborn, that we’re accustomed to seeing in EPL kickoffs, especially when trying to preserve a drawn score and at least 1 point. However, the same can be said about cohesion on the attack, since 5 out of 20 teams failed to score at all last weekend.

More newsworthy is which teams lost their matches on the Premier League week without draws. Contrary to what supporters who missed the season kickoff and glance at headlines may be led reflexively to believe, it wasn’t Saturday and Sunday’s “mismatches” that led to the phenomenon of double-digit EPL clubs earning 3 points. Instead, a pair of scintillating upsets added to the short-term trend and electrified many onlookers who expected to be bored with the outcomes of the opening round’s marquee bids.

2 of the weekend’s wide favorites, Manchester City and Arsenal, lost to clean-sheet performances from Tottenham and Brentford respectively. WagerBop successfully predicted that the Premier League’s newcomers would upset Arsenal, but the Man City loss is what everyone’s talking about…who isn’t consumed with fake narratives like “no draws.”

Suddenly, for the maiden time since Citizens took command of the EPL table ahead of Liverpool in 2019-20, City’s odds to win the next English Premier League title have a “+” in front of them. It only took 1 match.

Tottenham played a patient, physical style in Spurs’ 1-0 victory, taking advantage of the fact that an entire offseason (admittedly not a long window in the Premier League cycle) wasn’t enough time for Harry Kane to reach an agreement with Pep Guardiola’s team.

Let’s take a look at fresh Premier League futures odds, with an eye on how City’s “striker problem” could affect lines that are swiftly changing as Citizens appear at least to be vulnerable.

Premier League Futures Odds After 1 Opening Round

(All betting odds in today’s preview courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.)

Man City +105
Chelsea +320
Liverpool +380
Man Utd +550
Leicester +2900
Tottenham +4000
Arsenal +10000
Southampton +10000
Aston Villa +10000
Wolves +10000
Newcastle +10000
Brighton +10000
Leeds +10000
Everton +10000
West Ham +10000
Crystal Palace +10000
Burnley F.C. +10000
Norwich City +10000
Watford +10000
Brentford F.C. +10000

Supporters know that City has been prioritizing UEFA success above all other competitions for a few years now. Champions League schedules are light compared to the weekly pace of the Premier League’s grueling slate, giving Manchester City a path to increase its domestic league advantage even as other competitions loom. Every EPL club puts its best 11 on the pitch for big international fixtures, and every top-level club manages its best players minutes carefully in less-prestigious settings. But it is held that Man City, with its incredible depth of quality and next-best lineups at manager Pep Guardiola’s disposal, can notch more victories in less-than-ideal circumstances than any other English brand.

That theory took a huge blow last weekend. City’s 2020-21 squad won matches without an A-1 striker on the pitch, even against clubs stronger that Tottenham’s current lineup.

Don’t count out Liverpool, which has exhibited even more dominance in domestic play than City at times over the past 3 years. Reds of 2019-20 maintained a winning streak of 18 matches between October and February, while in midst of a staggering 68-match invincible streak at home. Salah’s team can lick its chops over Agüero leaving the English Premier League altogether to play for F.C. Barcelona. Chelsea Football Club, 2021’s upstart Champions League victors, manufactured a “trifecta” of league, tournament, and international wins over rival Citizens in an historic high-point for the shield.

Thanks to Liverpool and Chelsea’s 6 combined goals and points from Matchday 1, there’s no doubt about which teams will soak-up drawn futures bets now that Man City’s control of the Premiership is in doubt. Reds and Blues have shrunk to (+380) and (+320) odds respectively following FanDuel’s recommendation of both markets last week.

Quite pointedly, Arsenal’s debut loss has caused Gunners to draw a 100-to-1 futures line this week, putting the storied club in the same boat with newly-promoted teams…1 of whom Arsenal just dropped 3 points to without scoring a goal.

Premier League Odds: Matchday 2 Lines and Picks

Liverpool vs Burnley

Few supporters expected Liverpool to parry and counterattack against a bubble EPL club like Norwich City, but Reds did so expertly in a 3-0 victory over Canaries at Carrow Road last Saturday. Firmino’s goal early in the 2nd half put Liverpool ahead comfortably while setting the stage for a coup-de-grace from international superstar Mohamed Salah.

Burnley is a 15/1 underdog for Saturday’s early kickoff after dropping 3 points to Brighton at home. Over (3.5) goals on Liverpool vs Burnley is a terrific deal at (+148) payoff odds, given that Clarets may prove even more vulnerable to Reds’ attacking in a debut match at Anfield.

Pick: Over (3.5)

Manchester City vs Norwich City

Striker or no, Citizens are poised to blow-out Canaries this Saturday, which is probably why FanDuel has no “spread” or “Handicap Draw” currently set for the match at City of Manchester Stadium despite habitually offering the market for club soccer matches of all stripes for a year-plus now.

Pick: Over (3.5) 

Crystal Palace vs Brentford

The stereotyped pick on Saturday’s fixture is Eagles, a Premier League mainstay that could be poised to bring a giddy new league roster back down to Earth. But even if Palace gains a prohibitive advantage, CPFC is too methodical to run-up a big final tally against a gunned-up side that just beat Gunners.

Pick: Under (1.5) (+180) 

Leeds United vs Everton

What a shocker it is from an historical POV to see Toffees at 2/1 against a club that’s also new to the top level. It’s probably not a great idea for bookmakers to overlook the history.

Pick: Everton (+200) 

Aston Villa vs Newcastle FC

Villains (-125) are another club undeserving of its line to win at home on Matchday 2.

Pick: Newcastle (+300) or Draw (+275) 

Brighton vs Watford

Take the steep underdog again for an unpredictable Seagulls vs Hornets clash.

Pick: Watford (+470) 

(Sunday)

Wolverhampton vs Tottenham

Tottenham comes into Sunday’s anticipated kickoff with as much fanfare as any Premier League club following the 1-0 upset over Man City. It’s a testament to how deeply Wolves is respected on home turf that Wanderers are just a (+250) underdog vs a (+120) moneyline on Spurs.

Pick: Under (1.5) (+200)

Arsenal vs Chelsea

Arsenal is taking the predictable deluge of criticism following an 0-2 loss to EPL newcomer Brentford. Star-studded Chelsea is only a (-130) wager to win at Emirates Stadium, probably because soccer handicappers expect Arsenal to rebound with a better effort following the humiliation of last weekend. However, it should be pointed out that Gunners’ early-season swoons tend to extend far longer than 1 match.

Pick: Chelsea 

Southampton vs Manchester United

FanDuel’s bookmakers set the bar too low with a 1/1 payoff market on O/U (2.5), given how Southampton’s hell-for-leather play without the ball could open up chances for both teams, with United’s attack already looking hot.

West Ham vs Leicester

Hammers scored 3 goals in less than 15 minutes at St. James Park last week, helping to buoy a baseline O/U total of (2.5) for a match that could be a lot more low-key.

Pick: Under