The topic of double-digit NFL favorites gets talked about quite a bit. This Sunday, we will have a chance to bet a season-high 4 teams who are favored by at least 10 points, so we better know what we are talking about.
Are these bets sure things? Is a 4-team parlay the best option? Or it is the complete opposite? Should we avoid them like the plague? What do the numbers say?
Back in 2013, Kyle Wagner found that favorites of 12 points or higher had only won 44.4% ATS since 1978 and 40.5% ATS since 2005. This was 5 years ago, though, and his article did not touch SU records. Let’s see what has been happening more recently.
Double Digit Favorites Since 2014
| Year | ATS Record | ATS % | SU Record | SU % | Avg Line |
| 2018 | 12-2-1 | 85.7% | 14-1 | 93.3% | -12.2 |
| 2017 | 18-13-1 | 58.1% | 28-4 | 87.5% | -12.3 |
| 2016 | 11-3-1 | 78.6% | 15-0 | 100% | -12.7 |
| 2015 | 11-8 | 57.9% | 14-5 | 73.7% | -12.0 |
| 2014 | 13-10 | 56.5% | 22-1 | 95.7% | -11.9 |
| Total | 65-36-3 | 64.4% | 93-11 | 89.4% | -12.2 |
64.4% is a far cry from the 44.4% of yesteryear. A sharp reversal of the trend has led to double-digit favorites rewarding bettors with a 22.9% ROI since 2014.
How about that moneyline? 89.4% is an awfully high winning percentage. How profitable is that?
Using this beautiful tool, we can use historical data to translate a point spread into the corresponding moneyline. Based on a line of -12.2, we can conclude the average moneyline for these favorites since 2014 has been about -1275.
At this steep price tag, bettors need to hit a 92.7% clip just to break even. Falling short at 89.4%, those who placed $100 on each double-digit favorite since 2014 would currently be down $4,725.
Effect of Home Field on Double-Digit Favorites
This Sunday, 2 of our double-digit favorites are playing at home:
Cardinals @ Packers -14 (-105)
49ers @ Seahawks -10 (-115)
I wanted to run the numbers and see whether playing at home affected a double-digit favorite’s chances of covering. Here is what I found.
Home Double-Digit Favorites Since 2014
| Year | ATS Record | ATS % | SU Record | SU % | Avg Line |
| 2018 | 7-2-1 | 77.8% | 9-1 | 90% | -12.8 |
| 2017 | 16-10-1 | 61.5% | 25-2 | 92.6% | -12.7 |
| 2016 | 10-2 | 83.3% | 12-0 | 100% | -13.1 |
| 2015 | 9-6 | 60% | 12-3 | 80% | -12.3 |
| 2014 | 11-9 | 55% | 19-1 | 95% | -12.0 |
| Total | 53-29-2 | 64.6% | 77-7 | 91.7% | -12.5 |
Nearly the same ATS winning percentage at home for double-digits favorites. 64.6% ATS is phenomenal and good for a 23.4% ROI.
If we do the math, however, with a -12.5 line, bettors would need to hit at a 93.2% rate to break even. The 91.7% rate that home double-digit favorites have been winning at would leave a $100/game bettor down $1,820.
Road Double-Digit Favorites Since 2014
Our other two large favorites are on the road this week:
Rams -10 (-110) @ Lions
Chiefs -15.5 (-105) @ Raiders
Here is what the road numbers for double-digit favorites look like since 2014.
| Year | ATS Record | ATS % | SU Record | SU % | Avg Line |
| 2018 | 5-0 | 100% | 5-0 | 100% | -11.2 |
| 2017 | 1-3 | 25% | 2-2 | 50% | -10.2 |
| 2016 | 1-1-1 | 50% | 3-0 | 100% | -11.3 |
| 2015 | 2-2 | 50% | 2-2 | 50% | -11.0 |
| 2014 | 2-1 | 66.7% | 3-0 | 100% | -11.2 |
| Total | 11-7-1 | 61.1% | 15-4 | 78.9% | -11.0 |
Away from home, double-digits favorites cover the spread a bit less often but still at an extremely profitable rate. 61.1% over 18 games would earn you $330, a 16.7% ROI.
SU is where the large road favorites struggle. At -11, you need to hit at a very high clip to break even, 91.3% to be exact.
78.9% falls woefully short of that mark and bettors who have backed road double-digit favorites since 2014 are likely afraid to check their bank statements. They would be down $2,684, or over $500 per year.
It appears that double-digit favorites have been extremely profitable ATS but are not wise bets SU. Keep this information in mind when placing your NFL bets this Sunday.
Kreighton loves sports, math, writing, and winning — he combines all of them as a writer for WagerBop. His favorite sports to review are MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAAF, and NCAABB.
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