There’s that old wrestling angle in which 2 iconic grapplers are given disparate-sized trophies on TV, leading to harsh words, hard feelings, and (eventually) a top-dollar PPV match. Because sports blogs communicate by-omission more than we communicate by addition (i.e. a tiny betting tip on an upcoming game signifies less event-prestige than a 3000-word Super Bowl preview) it wouldn’t be unreasonable for fans of women’s ice hockey, who’ve come to rely on WagerBop for in-depth previews of the unique distaff sport, to feel like “offended Intercontinental champs” and recoil at the sheer brevity of our 2022 Olympic women’s preview, compared to WB’s long tout on men’s shinny.
Take it as a compliment to the women’s IIHF field. The division has been captivating for so long that it’s hard to miss the sharpest angles as an Olympic Games or a World Championship draws near. WagerBop has lamented that each Women’s Worlds should be called a “Four Nations Cup” because Canada, USA, Russia, and Finland are often the only teams with a chance. The phenomenon can help to make women’s hockey more exciting on occasion, of course, like when a new generation of Smile Japan skaters finally started bothering the best of North America and Europe recently.
But in Beijing, the sharpest angle is that Women’s Ice Hockey – unfortunately – is setting up as a 2-team, all-(North)-American gold medal chase once again. Despite an optimistic “Cinderella” gambling line of 15-to-1 on winning Olympic gold, Finland could be too distracted to even win bronze.
Seminal goaltender Noora Räty is engaged in a feud with Team Finland coach Pasi Mustonen after missing the 2021 World Championships due to her immigration status and lingering injuries. Räty has gone so far as to swear-off IIHF hockey unless Mustonen is fired, a decision Finland’s federation has hastily mulled-over since Räty declared herself “free” of the national team on Instagram.
One Finnish newspaper reports that Mustonen told the world’s best women’s GK he would bench her if she stuck around with the Lady Lions, a scene right out of Slap Shot that shows Suomi needs a “Newman” to coach.
Women’s Ice Hockey begins on February 3rd as a debut Winter Olympics event. Team Finland will be expected to reach the semifinals after winning bronze bling at the Women’s Worlds last May. But a week before the Olympic Games is a very bad time to be dealing with ugly controversy. With the upstarts saddled with a coach-goalie feud worthy of Gump Worsley and Phil Watson’s dust-up of NHL lore, it’s safe to forecast that the Finns won’t be prepared to whip both North American women’s teams in 2022.
So that leaves Canada and the United States as the only 2 legitimate gold-medal picks. Surprise, surprise! Yet there is, in fact, an interesting twist this time around.
The U.S. Women’s National Hockey Team is an underdog at the 2022 Winter Olympics, after winning about 4 of every 5 major international golds throughout the 2010s.
2022 Beijing Olympics: Women’s Ice Hockey Gold Medal Odds
(Betting odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Canada : -125
United States : -105
Finland : +1500
Russian Olympic Committee : +4000
Sweden : +5000
Switzerland : +5000
Czech Republic : +10000
China : +10000
Japan : +10000
Denmark : +10000
It’s not that the Finnish team isn’t better than all of the other long-shot gold medal bets in Women’s Ice Hockey. It’s just that the gap between North American and European sides is still so wide that it takes an all-hands-on-deck Olympics for another women’s IIHF nation to make any real noise. We can thank odds-makers for putting “obligatory” futures odds on underdog teams that can only soak-up “house chips,” even though FanDuel is among the bookmakers which has cast Canada and Team USA as 1/1 co-favorites for gold in China.
Now, what about those (-105) odds on Stars & Stripes? It seems strange that Las Vegas and London, full of handicappers who’re obsessed with historical results when setting lines on international hockey and soccer, would cast Team USA as even a slight underdog in Women’s Ice Hockey so early in a decade that follows-up a reign of scary dominance by the Yanks. Canada’s been dealing with a crisis of confidence in the women’s game as U.S. professional leagues wage a pitched battle for talent and funding in the folded CWHL’s void.
Team USA won 5 consecutive Women’s World Championships between 2013 and 2019, with the Maple Leaf reeling-in just 4 silver-medal finishes and a bronze placement. While the veteran nucleus of Hilary Knight, Amanda Kessel, and Brianna Decker hasn’t been getting any younger, the amazing speed and puck skills of Kendall Coyne-Schofield and an elite group of U23 blueliners promises nothing but success for the U.S. women in the 2020’s.
Yes, former Team USA coach Bob Corkum (mistakenly called “Bob Corker” at WagerBop in a Freudian slip about coaches and politicians) turned out to be a disloyal dirt-bag who upset the squad’s 2021 IIHF cycle by abandoning the dynastic team for a potential NCAAM job. But that’s in the past now. Women’s hockey development in America is so self-nurturing and prolific on its own that the roster’s talent overcomes USA Hockey’s bias and neglect.
Canada defeated Team USA in overtime to win a delayed IIHF Women’s World Championship in 2021. But surely odds-makers know that you can’t expect Stars & Stripes to win the same world tournament again and again without a slip-up here and there, any more than Manchester City can be expected to win every big match, or (indeed) any more than Team Canada should be expected to always win WWC silver medals if not gold. Team Sweden upset the United States at the 2006 Olympics in what was expected to be a watershed moment for European women’s squads. Turns out Smile Japan has made more strides than any European brand since the Turin Games, outside of Finland and Russia’s distaff programs. To wax perfectly cliché about it, it’s best not to overreact to these things.
But maybe there’s an historical angle to the 2022 Women’s Ice Hockey odds after all – the setting of the Winter Olympics itself.
Have the Habs Hexed America in Olympic Women’s Hockey?
There’s no denying the impact of the Five Rings on the 4 nations that vie for women’s hockey gold and silver. Finland and Russia tend to fare a little bit better at the Worlds on balance, even though Sweden ’06 authored a blueprint for defeating faster, deeper squads on IOC ice. International Ice Hockey Federation events maximize face-offs in order to sell tickets and create a weeks-long festival atmosphere. Women’s and Men’s Ice Hockey at the Winter Olympics (no, we’re not linking you to Wikipedia) are sprints to the finish line.
That hurts the teams that can still be overwhelmed by numbers of opposing snipers, who must only stay healthy and aggressive around the goal crease for about 10 days. It also helps Team Canada rely on its veteran stars who don’t need a club league for practice vs Team USA.
Canada won Olympic gold in 2002 and didn’t need to face the shaky Yanks in 2006’s gold medal game. But those anticipated outcomes soon became part of a remarkable narrative, as the Lady Habs kept winning Winter Olympics gold medals even as Team USA became the undisputed #1 world power in non-contact pond shinny. Team Canada dusted-off an improving United States squad 2-0 in 2010, won yet again at the Sochi Games, and took a strongly-favored U.S. side to OT prior to Team USA’s breakthrough win in ’18.
The 2018 win is still reassuring for U.S. fans who don’t want Coyne’s supporting cast feeling “cursed” going into the next Olympics. Alex Cavallini’s near-disaster in overtime of 2019’s WWC gold-medal game is a reminder of what nerves can do to a favored hockey team. However, from a handicapping POV, the Maple Leaf phenomenon remains valid. Canada consistently out-plays expectations in women’s Olympic hockey compared to the IIHF.
Analytics point to another solid event for Canada. Several NCAA upperclasswomen should provide a fresh dose of skating speed, and sniper Marie Philip-Poulin is healthy once again. Philip-Poulin is as close to her prime as some of Team USA’s aging stars, as is 28 y/o assistant captain Blayre Turnboll. Canada’s 4th line should look as quick as its top 6. But there’s a lack of Olympic experience on defense, and there may not be a truly dominant goaltender in the mix. Maple Leaf netminder Emerance Maschmeyer boasts a solid amount of IIHF experience, but was spanked by U.S. shooters in the 2017 Women’s Worlds. (Cavallini has earned plenty of golden bling before and after her brief snafu in Helsinki.) Canadian HC Perry Peam (not to be confused with “Percy Pringle“) will probably go with GK Ann-Renée Desbiens.
With the enhanced expectations following a 2021 WWC triumph, Canada’s youth brigade will have to deal with added pressure to prevail with gold again less than a year later. That sort of psychology has been bad for NCAA-laden hockey teams at the Olympics ever since 1984’s American men’s roster was hailed as “this year’s gold-medal favorites” at the airport.
Put simply, it’s not often that we get to wager on the world’s consensus-best team at “underdog” odds to win gold medals. United States women are still ranked #1 in the world and will probably stay that way until Toronto and Montreal’s token club brands turn into a viable national or international pro league again. The only reason not to bet on Team USA prior to the Opening Ceremonies is that the women’s gold medal odds could potentially lean even further in Canada’s favor later on, thanks to superficial betting action in Canada beats the United States in round-robin play on February 8th. The U.S. women don’t need to worry about winning that contest at all, since “Group A” is an easy pool to advance from. 6th-through-10th seeds must compete to join Group A teams in the playoffs, and a laconic game plan against the Canadians in preliminary play would save the skating legs of the older U.S. skaters.
Conversely, though, if Team USA blasts Finland by 4-5 goals on February 3rd, and it looks like the Americans can beat Canada twice with 2 different lineups, hurry and wager that Yankee futures line before it returns to where it belongs at 1-to-1.5 or shorter odds.
Women’s Hockey Odds: Is There More Than 1 Pick on the Board?
Sportsbooks deserve credit for getting women’s hockey odds out faster this time (in early 2021, with the WWC seemingly coming up, WagerBop was forced to try to forecast them) and devoting more space to Olympic sports in general prior to 2022’s torch lighting, given the shoddy chaos involved in betting on world championship events in 2020 and 2021.
But without the “blitz” of prop bet offers that will pop up by this weekend, there’s no recommendation to make for women’s hockey other than Team USA at 1/1. Silver and bronze medal odds on the tournament will show up after the blog’s publishing window is over.
Russia, or “ROC,” for instance, is a great underdog pick to win bronze this Olympics, given the discord and distraction in Finland’s ranks. But who knows what Tuesday’s odds will be, except that Finland’s perceived superiority will give the madly-improved ROC a “+” payoff sign.
With alacrity, the FanDuel folks have noticed that Women’s Ice Hockey begins rather early this time around, before the pomp and circumstance of Beijing’s debut can start to settle down. 2020 Summer Olympics events like Men’s Baseball – which seemingly began before the torch made its way into Tokyo – taught Las Vegas a lesson on getting Olympic odds out fast. Therefore, FanDuel’s hockey spread for the 2022 Olympic Games already includes face-offs from the 1st and 2nd scheduled Women’s Ice Hockey dates in China, a treat for women’s hockey buffs who often find 2 AM odds on a Kunlun Red Star match at 7 AM EST.
Getting the chance to handicap games and predict 60:00 betting outcomes means that once again, the blog has an excuse (ain’t it a coincidence?) to more closely investigate a batch of women’s national teams outside North America.
Including the bona-fide, hands-down, 100% most adorable sports team in the world.
Feb. 3-4 Women’s Ice Hockey Game Odds, Lines, and Picks
Wednesday 2/3: Czech Republic vs China
FanDuel isn’t wrong to make the Czech women (-3.5) goal favorites against host China. Remember that there’s no “Puck Line” in Olympic hockey betting, but instead, bookmakers simply write a margin-of-victory prediction into typically 1/1 odds on ATS bets. China’s in the same boat as Japan a few years back, having improved its skating and defending (most fledgling hockey programs tend to do so) but unable to score against good goalies.
Over/Under lines of (6.5) total goals are another story. China’s burst of home-ice adrenaline won’t give the underdogs the capacity to trick a Czech goaltender, but it will keep stick-checking tight and opponents anxious for at least 1 or 2 periods. The likely final tally is Czech Republic 5, China 0, or perhaps CZE 4, CHN 1, and both those scores win on the Under.
Pick: Under (6.5)
Wednesday, 2/3: Canada vs Switzerland
Switzerland’s distaff goaltending is fairly solid, but not solid enough to backstop against a Canadian team full of debuting NCAA kids who want to throw a pandemic-era party. Pent-up steam and 4 lines of upgraded scoring depth will ensure a Maple Leaf romp by the 2nd period, making us wonder what FanDuel’s doing with just a (-5.5) spread on Canada.
FanDuel is badly underrating the Swiss in Men’s Ice Hockey, so say it’s a make-up market.
Pick: Canada (-5.5)
Thursday, 2/4: Sweden vs Japan
Japan’s pessimistic (+122) odds to beat Sweden have something to do with North American league bias. Smile Japan managed to place a few skaters in major overseas pro leagues in the 2010s, but the roster is full of unfamiliar team names again, prompting Las Vegas to conclude that Sweden’s “superior” Euro-league skaters will provide the seasoning for a debut win.
But it’s not Sweden whose club hockey has come the farthest by 2022, it’s Russia’s. Japan could be a close 2nd considering how the Smile Japan offense has woken up against big-time foes. The Japanese squad recently lost to Team USA 0-4 in a game that set a new precedent for how the undersized unit could defend. In the 2021 Women’s Worlds, Smile Japan went 3-1 in Group Stage before losing to Stars & Stripes by 8 goals in the quarterfinals, though the fabulous 20-year-old skater Akane Shiga fooled Cavallini for not 1, but 2 goals in the 1st period.
North American pros or no, look for Smile Japan to bow a few times vs Sweden.
Pick: Japan (+122)
Thursday, 2/4: United States vs Finland
Forget what we said about ignoring history – Team USA’s thin (-2.5) spread against Finland on Thursday is all about the history of close games between IIHF shinny’s newest rivals.
But the Finns are too troubled to play like it’s 2019.
Pick: United States (-2.5)
Kurt has authored close to 1000 stories covering football, soccer, basketball, baseball, ice hockey, prize-fighting and the Olympic Games. Kurt posted a 61% win rate on 200+ college and NFL gridiron picks last season. He muses about High School football on social media as The Gridiron Geek.
Twitter: @scorethepuck
Email: kurt@wagerbop.com
Thorough and very accurate write up, well done. Any picks for tonight’s Olympic Women’s Hockey slate? 2/3/2022
Thank you, very flattered! I hadn’t thought about tonight’s games & there’s no way to maintain a .1000 winning percentage, but Russia still looks underrated after years of club-league development. In fact, the reason FanDuel has Switzerland (+160) is probably just because the Swiss lost to Canada so bad. As porous as SWI’s goaltending & defense seem to be the best bets are Russia (-0.5) and Over (4.5). Hopefully, this doesn’t make the article 4-1 on predictions. Enjoy the Olympics.
What about China vs denmark?
Funny you should ask about that game, Bovada has a bunch of Olympic “puck lines” available with Denmark *getting* (+1.5) goals but at 1-to-3 odds. I can’t imagine a newly-promoted WWC team would lose by 2+ goals to a squad still mired in Division 1B, so Denmark’s puck line + Russia’s moneyline (to win by any score) makes a pretty solid parlay.
Awsome thanks for the response your picks and info was great yesterday
And how would you feel about doing roc and over 4.5?
I like those picks & touted each to another reader in the comments. But I’m sticking with Russia-to-win as the best bet. A lot of losing teams in a women’s tournament just won’t be able to score on top-4 opponents, and without a feel for the Pink Machine yet it’s hard to rule out Russia winning 3-0 in a snoozer.
What you got for today’s games?
I appreciate your faith after that bad beat on our Thursday parlay. Hope everyone won enough dough on the prior picks to compensate.
FanDuel thinks it’s got a sucker-market with Over (6.5) (+120) on Canada-Finland, but that game could be poised to break the scoreboard. Lady Lions know that A) the coach nobody could stand is finally gone, and B) they’d better play some offense because the non-Noora goaltending won’t buoy the defense. Canada may be the hot round-robin scoring machine that only fades later on. I won’t be surprised if it’s a Nintendo Ice Hockey score like 8-3. Over and plus-odds is my pick.
Similar deal with USA-Russia. After the Pink Machine’s brutal beat-down of Switzerland there will be some vinegar on the ice, especially if ROC tries the same rough stuff with the Yanks. When players get mad they tend to forget back-checking and go all out for the net. Russia’s got the skills to score a few times on the North Americans, but they’re not organized enough yet to play a perfect game and shut us out. FanDuel’s O/U handicap for USA-Russia is a whopping (7) goals which feels about right, so there’s no point betting it either way, but I really like Russia (+6.5) and (-122). U.S. could conceivably have to score 10x to cover that.
Perfect thanks for the advice see how it goes good luck to you
What is your best bet on the China vs. Japan game?
Hi Nicky, I really prefer Japan (-1.5) despite the (-132) price. 30 cents is chintzy but it’s just not enough goals. There are only 3 teams out of 9 that I would favor over Japan rn, and needless to say, China is not among them. You could look for an alternate spread w/ fatter odds on Team Japan winning by 3+ goals. Good luck staying up!
Sounds good, I was looking at that line as well, but wanted to get your opinion! It’s pretty late, but do you think Switzerland can cover a 6.5 point spread against the USA? I know Switzerland isn’t great right now, but the U.S. hasn’t won by 7 yet and I feel like that’s just too many points, but again I’m not too sure.
Since we lost the overnight pick, maybe it’s lucky I didn’t see your question in time! I made the rookie mistake of not recognizing Japan’s chance to coast into the Q-Final, which accounts for Smile Japan letting up w/ a 1-goal lead. With that, let’s close the book on round-robin games and wait to handicap the playoffs with more complete information. Good luck on USA-SWI though.
Partly due to your write up, I am 10-1 on picks this tournament so far… flat out unbelievable! It seems like the market has no idea how to gauge these teams, maybe because of the 4 year gaps and yearly roster changes? (I honestly can’t decipher it lol) Regardless, this is a market to exploit for remainder of the tournament as far as I’m concerned. I love Japan tomorrow on the puck line -135, little juicy but a parlay with something in Canada game sounds like a lochness moster. Or to be safe, the Japan 60 min line at -245 is certainly worthy of a leg in my opinion. I also lean to Japan TT over 3.5 at + money. China barely squeaked by a Denmark team fresh off a 10-year Olympic hiatus. I think Japan wins this one easy, 4/5-1, maybe more. What do you think?
psa i’m the same guy who commented first lol, can totally see where my heads at! trying to take full advantage of this tourney before rigged American sports come back to haunt me.
Partly due to your write up, I am 10-1 on picks this tournament so far… flat out unbelievable! It seems like the market has no idea how to gauge these teams, maybe because of the 4 year gaps and yearly roster changes? (I honestly can’t decipher it lol) Regardless, this is a market to exploit for remainder of the tournament as far as I’m concerned. I love Japan tomorrow on the puck line -135, little juicy but a parlay with something in Canada game sounds like a lochness moster. Or to be safe, the Japan 60 min line at -245 is certainly worthy of a leg in my opinion. I also lean to Japan TT over 3.5 at + money. China barely squeaked by a Denmark team fresh off a 10-year Olympic hiatus. I think Japan wins this one easy, 4/5-1, maybe more. What do you think?
Also really like Japan 1P ML at + money. China struggles here from the start, haven’t quite played competition like Japan yet and are only in the tournament because they’re hosting! Didn’t they finish 8/9 last IIHF World Championship they were in? Don’t even remember how long that was lol.
ago*
I take that back, Czech Republic was their opening game and best team they played so fa, and were down 1-0 after 1 (I personally think CR is a really solid team). Them and Japan are a little closer to even with Finland than people really realize, in my opinion.
Thank you for reporting the pick success! I’ll go a step further, the guys trying to handicap women’s hockey don’t even know what sport they’re handicapping. It’s not the same sport with different gender players, it’s a legitimately separate sport.
For instance, odds-makers think, “Switzerland’s goalies can stand up to these shots because they’re lower velocity than Team USA men’s shots.” But the fact that women can’t slap as hard means the shots are easier to redirect, and women’s teams may actually be better than men’s teams at redirecting soft shots and moving a responsive puck around the crease. Goalies who lose their fundamentals are absolutely toast vs Canada/USA/Russia, we’ve seen that in Finland’s collapse. They can’t collect rebounds & have no chance vs the finesse of a top WWC team around the net.
Puck Lines are more of a chaos element in preliminary women’s games b/c there’s more time for the winning team to make a final-1:00 clearing pass, and nobody can knock them down before they get to the empty net. Thankfully the Japan-China line at FanDuel isn’t a bookmaker being tricky, FD SBK offers the traditional IIHF style of spreads and it just so happens that Japan is a (-1.5) goal favorite.
Japan is light-years ahead of China in women’s hockey. I’m glad China eked out a win vs Denmark but Smile Japan has dominated Denmark and Sweden in 6 periods. Japan is a Group A level team still playing in Group B. I agree that either team might upset Finland but only because Finland is a dumpster fire at the moment. Japan is a wonderful pick against China at (-1.5) and (-135) and you can explore nudging it above 1/1 by parlaying the easiest/shortest ML or PL on the board, preferably on Canada or USA.
Could not agree more. Now I am no handicapper by any means, but I’ve played the sport for over 20 years and was fortunate to play 4 years of college. I think I’d be able to gauge these games a little better than these professionals just by watching the first 10 and applying all my relevant experience to what I see from each team. Where I lack is roster personnel, just because I don’t follow consistently but might have to from now on lol – who doesn’t love free $?
Also,
Are you going to do a Men’s preview? I want to get a futures winner in and really like ROC at +150 with all the KHL star-power and experience against mostly younger competition across the board (from what I can see based on rosters).
Perhaps Canada/USA are small good-value plays at such long odds?
Would love to know your thoughts throughout each tournament, as your analysis on the Women’s side has been unparalleled to say the least.
Yes of course! Much of this article is about the ROC (+150) pick: https://www.wagerbop.com/2022-winter-olympics-mens-ice-hockey-preview-rosters-odds-and-gold-medal-prediction/
I can’t promise I’ll weigh in on every night of Olympic hockey. Some nights the odds might be accurate so we don’t want the other shoe to drop on that 10-1. Women’s medal round will be interesting when they try to predict A vs B though, and there’s a live Men’s Ice Hockey underdog I promise no other site has touted.
How do you feel about the -2 for japan
I think they beat them pretty easily and the odds are good almost seems like free money
Umm what the heck happened
Japan phoned it in a period or 2 early. You don’t expect that to happen in the 3rd and not the 4th game, but China’s got 2 inspired upsets in a row and the host GKs/Defensewomen(I’m campaigning for “defensewomen” and “numbers advantage” instead of “defensemen” and “man advantage”) deserve a ton of credit.
As for myself I’m not picking any more games I can’t watch & exert telekinetic control over. Dad taught me many years ago that that’s a bad idea.
Really nice article and helpful me.
Thank you! WB has never influenced the odds on anything before. Now, if I want to pick against myself, I know right where to go.