2022 Preseason NBA Western Conference Futures Betting Guide

Here, we break down the best preseason futures bets in the West. For the Eastern Conference Futures Betting Guide, click this link.

Memphis Grizzlies (+2400) to Win 2023 NBA Finals

Ja is the man. Landing on the scene in Memphis with the #2-overall pick in 2019, the Grizzlies became a playoff team in his 2nd year and then won a playoff series last season.

Ja Morant is given (+1100) odds to win the NBA MVP Award in 2022-23 – the 6th-shortest in the association. The 23-year-old will be counted upon to deliver in the clutch again for his team if they are to replicate their success on the court of last year.

In 2021-22 – his age-22 season – Ja scored over 27 points per game with 6 assists and 5 boards. This made the Murray State product the 4th-youngest player to ever compile this stat line behind LeBron James (20, 21), Luka Doncic (20, 21) and Oscar Robertson (22).

Memphis battled hard all season long – outpacing the Golden State Warriors and finishing 2nd in the Western Conference standings at 56-26. Only Phoenix (64-18) held a better record in the entire NBA.

The Grizzlies shocked the basketball world with their meteoric rise toward the top of the West. They fooled the Vegas bookies, too.

A brief look at Memphis’ chart below indicates the team was at 52 ATS wins – good for a 21% ROI on the point spread.

The Grizzlies peaked early in 2021–22. As evidenced by the chart, both SU wins and ATS wins began to decline in the 2nd half of the season.

The Grizzlies were a classic case of a team backing into the playoffs. Expectations were split for their opening-round series versus the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Ja Morant brought the entire city of Memphis to their feet when he helped deliver the franchise’s 5th all-time postseason series victory.

The Grizzlies had bucked the negative trend and were now hot again – facing off against the Western Conference favorite – Golden State Warriors. The Warriors were the chalk pick in the series despite allowing Memphis to best them by a few games in the regular season standings.

In a valiant effort, the Grizzlies forced Golden State to play 6 hard contests to beat them.

Of course, the Warriors went on to win the 2022 NBA finals – leaving many to wonder whether the Memphis Grizzlies were the 2nd-best team in basketball last year.

Is there Value in Betting the Memphis Grizzlies to Win the 2023 NBA Finals?

Tracking line movement for futures bets in the preseason is an excellent method of gauging the public’s faith in a given team.

Vegas oddsmakers are listing Memphis’ over/under win total for the 2022–23 season at 48.5 wins. This is far short of the Grizzlies’ 56-win finish from 2021.

The betting public has jumped at the chance to bet the Grizzlies over on what they see as an insultingly-low line.

Betting over 48.5 regular season wins on the Grizzlies on FanDuel Sportsbook can only be done by laying (-134) odds – a steep lie.

Don’t take this the wrong way. Ja is not a flash in the pan. The Grizzlies are not lottery-bound in 2022-23, but there is little value in betting Memphis to win the NBA Finals at (+2400).

The Grizzlies’ 2nd-place finish in the West is fresh in our minds and inflating our confidence. The public has steamed the line beyond the profitable zone. Let’s sit this one out and look for better value elsewhere.

Denver Nuggets (+2000) to Win 2023 NBA Finals

The Nuggets are known for having one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA. The Rockies are a trip for any NBA team. It’s inconvenient to go to Denver whether you’re coming from the East Coast or West Coast.

There will always be a change in time zone plus the thin mountain air messes with your lungs.

In the Western Conference, only the Warriors and Jazz have won more games at home over the past 5 seasons. It’s obvious why going to Golden State would be difficult. Utah has many of the same advantages as Denver – so that one checks out, too.

The Nuggets won 48 games in 2021–22. This was enough to avoid the play-in tournament and sneak in as the West’s 6 seed.

Denver received a tough draw – playing the best team in the history of basketball – the Golden State Warriors. Golden State made quick work of Denver – putting a 5-game end to Denver’s title hopes.

Take a look at the following chart. This chart breaks down the SU and ATS wins by month for the Denver Nuggets last season.

Denver won quite a few games – even peaking in the 2nd half – as good teams do – but failed to meet Vegas’ expectations as they lost money against the spread.

This type of season has been par for the course for the Nuggets over the last several years. Nikola Jokić alone makes Denver competitive on most nights, but without another bona fide scorer and some better cohesive team defense, the Nuggets will never be able to compete with the big boys in the West.

Is there Value in Betting the Denver Nuggets to Win the 2023 NBA Finals?

Vegas released Denver’s season win total for 2022–23 at 50.5 wins. Denver won 48 games last year so the 50 or 51-range would be a minor improvement.

The betting public is absolutely torn on this line, with nearly even amounts of money being placed on either side of the total.

Denver has the best player in the league. Nikola Jokić is the reigning back-to-back MVP winner. That’s pretty awesome.

Do you like the Nuggets more than the Grizzlies this year? Wagerbop does. Do you like the Nuggets better than the Mavericks this year? Wagerbop does.

There is certainly value in betting the Denver Nuggets to win the 2023 NBA finals.

Phoenix Suns (+1000) to Win 2023 NBA Finals

Over the past 2 seasons, the Phoenix Suns have won the most games in basketball. This includes the playoffs.

Phoenix won 51 games in 2020–21, finishing 2nd in the Western Conference and advancing all the way to the NBA Finals where they lost to the Bucks in 6 games.

Last year, the Suns pulled away in the 2nd half of the season, finishing 1st in the Western Conference by 8 games over 2nd-place Memphis. A hard-fought 7-game Western Conference Semifinals series with the Mavericks eventually did Phoenix in.

So where does Phoenix stand entering the 2022–23 NBA season? Do they deserve to be declared Western Conference favorites already in October?

Looking at the Vegas odds to win both the conference and the NBA Finals, oddsmakers like the Clippers and Warriors both a little bit better than the Suns.

You can get Phoenix to win the NBA Finals at (+1000) where the Clippers and Warriors can both be had at (+700) apiece.

Take a look at Phoenix‘s chart below. These are their SU and ATS wins from last season. Phoenix won way more games than any other team but notice how their ATS wins were lower than the straight up wins in every single month.

The best team in the NBA last season was pegged perfectly by Vegas as worldbeaters – stomping out the competition on the court but failing to generate profit against the spread.

The oddsmakers knew Phoenix was going to be good. Those long winning streaks did not surprise the sharps.

Is there Value in Betting the Phoenix Suns to Win the 2023 NBA Finals?

There was no value in betting on Phoenix late last season, but +EV spots have resurfaced over the offseason.

As always, looking at how the public is reacting to the season win total for Phoenix is an excellent way to gauge value.

The total was set at 53.5 games. This is a tad low for a team who has performed as well as the Suns, and yet the betting public still thinks that this is too high.

Folks are racing to their computers to smash this under – obviously predicting a massive regression for Phoenix in 2022–23.

This is where value is created, my friends. Here we have one of the best defensive ball clubs in the NBA coached by Monty Williams – who is regarded as a top-5 coach in this league.

While the Suns offense is certainly streaky, their clutch shooting metrics have been the best in the NBA the last 2 seasons. This team rises to the occasion and there is little data to suggest that such a massive regression is due.

Jump on the Phoenix Suns betting odds to win the 2023 NBA finals at (+1000) because you may not be able to get that price for very long. It would be very plausible for Phoenix to jump out of the gates with an amazing month of November and to see these odds shorten considerably.

Los Angeles Clippers (+700) to Win 2023 NBA Finals

The dynamic two-way duo of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George has yet to bring a championship to the Lakers’ little brother.

Spirits are always high in SoCal and this rings true again in October of 2022. Clippers’ expectations are big once again at the beginning of the year even though this team seems incapable of taking that next step into true contendership.

Take last season, for example. The Clippers were projected to be a top-3 team in the West before the season and could barely get to .500. The Clippers finished 8th in the Western Conference and could not navigate the play-in tournament – ending their season without even a playoff series.

Oddsmakers are displaying some stubbornness – giving the Clippers (+700+ odds to win the 2023 NBA Finals – tied with the Warriors for the shortest in the Western Conference.

A Kawhi Leonard knee injury did keep him off the court in 2021-22 which obviously affected the Clippers’ ability to beat good teams. Leonard is back this year and fully healthy which explains why oddsmakers feel comfortable putting the Clippers back up on the preseason pedestal.

The division which houses the California basketball teams – the Pacific – is the toughest in the NBA. The Warriors are slight division favorites this year at (+190) with the Clippers a close 2nd at (+195).

The Suns and Lakers also have good shots of finishing the season on top of the Pacific. Only the Sacramento Kings are expected to be a non-factor.

Take a look at this chart of SU and ATS wins for Los Angeles from last season. The Clippers started out good but totally fell apart in the 2nd half as their weakened roster began to get exposed by the tremendous competition both in their own division in the entire Western Conference.

Vegas had these boys pegged pretty accurately last year, which may actually be indicative of some betting value in 2022-23. Read why in the next section.

Is there Value in Betting the Los Angeles Clippers to Win the 2023 NBA Finals?

Vegas released a pretty lofty season Win total for the Clippers – 52.5 games. The betting public isn’t sure how to react to this one. The money is split between the two sides of the total.

Here’s the Wagerbop stance: the Clippers were down last year but Vegas had them handicapped accurately as their ATS win rate fell right around 50%.

Now back to full strength, the books are predicting huge things for the Clippers in 2022–23. Does Los Angeles’ past performance over the past couple of years warrant putting them in the same breath as the Golden State Warriors and Phoenix Suns? Absolutely not!

But this is precisely why there is value in taking the Clippers to win the 2023 NBA Finals.

While the common fan is going to have a hard time putting money into a team who’s underperformed year after year, the books obviously have LA figured out, and they seem to really believe that the Clippers are in for a historic season.

Let’s put our feeble mortal projections to the side and listen to what the bookies are screaming at us this fall. Clippers to win the 2023 NBA Finals at (+700) is the best futures bet on the board here in mid-October.

Golden State Warriors (+700) to Win 2023 NBA Finals

 

6 NBA Finals appearances. 4 rings. The most wins in any 5-year span in NBA history. 2 league MVPs. 2 All-Star Game MVPs. A Coach of the Year award.

This describes the last 8 seasons of Golden State Warriors basketball. This is the best team in the history of the NBA.

The Warriors went up against our generation’s GOAT – LeBron James – 4 NBA Finals in a row and mercifully let the King win 1 of them.

When their entire team got hurt and they fell into the lottery, the Warriors used the picks to rebuild and come back even stronger – making quick work of the field in the 2022 NBA postseason.

GM’s across the league were even admitting that they were remaining in rebuilds and intentionally not trying to win right away for fear of having to compete with Golden State.

This dynasty began in 2014. It’s October of 2022 and the Warriors are still good!

Check out their win chart from last season – a season in which they finished in 3rd place in the Western Conference but then easily ran the table in the playoffs.

The Warriors were right there with the Suns at the beginning of the season for the hottest start in the NBA but really began to slide in the 2nd half.

Haters began to write the team off – saying Steph Curry’s play is too erratic – but Steve Kerr is a beast of a coach and refused to let his team spiral. They recollected themselves by the month of April and were easily the best team in the league again come time for the important games.

Is there Value in Betting the Golden State Warriors to Win the 2023 NBA Finals?

Many NBA fans think that the Warriors dynasty is finally coming to an end, and they’ve thrown money around to prove that they are serious.

The Vegas season win total for Golden State is set at 52.5 wins. This would be an easy mark for the Warriors of old to hit, but a lot of folks seem to think that this year‘s team will not be as well-off as the Warriors of old.

Public money is coming in on the under 52.5 wins, creating good value on the over to those who still believe.

Even though the public seems to be down on Golden State a bit this year, there is still no value here. It is extremely rare to be able to find any value on the best team in the league – especially one as popular with recreational fans as the Golden State Warriors.

Could the Warriors win the 2023 NBA Finals? Of course they could! Is it a +EV play to make a futures bet right now in October? No, it is not.