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2019 Ice Hockey World Championship: Results and Medal Round Recap

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+Welcome to WagerBop’s coverage of the 2019 Ice Hockey World Championship. Scroll atop the page for hockey blogger Kurt Boyer’s recap of the medal round in Slovakia!

*** GOLD MEDAL GAME ***

Finland 3, Canada 1

Team Finland has just become the 1st modern Ice Hockey World Championship gold medalist without a single active NHL player on the roster, beating the Canadians and the Russians by a combined score of 4-1 in the final 2 games. It is a momentous achievement that has to stand on its own. I certainly can’t claim to have predicted it, and neither can any honest North American pundit.

Sure, the Finns got a little tired at the end. Russia pushed for a goal in the 3rd period of the semifinal even though the Red Machine would have been wise to sit back and hope for a 3-on-3 overtime scenario. Finnish captain Marko Anttila scored to give the heavy underdogs a 1-0 win instead.

When Canada took an early lead in the gold medal game, it felt like another katy-bar-the-door situation. The Maple Leaf had put together a roster of 20-something NHL studs who were going to back-check like nobody’s business and protect, even widen the gap. Right?

Wrong. The Ant Man struck 2 more times, securing the big 33-year-old forward’s place as the “Stéphane Matteau” of the IIHF – an average skater who seems to harmlessly float around until he smacks you or scores more than 1 historic goal in the same playoff run.

The NHLers gritted their teeth and pressed for an answer in the 3rd period, pouring 21 shots into the goal crease of Finnish goaltender Kevin Lankinen. But when Harri Pesonen scored on the counterattack with just 4 minutes to go, Finnish faithful knew that the grail was theirs.

I won’t call the Lions a “Miracle on Ice” because it is disrespectful to all of the fine Liiga and KHL and Swiss-league players on the squad whose skill-sets are better-suited to World tournaments than to the NHL game.

But how big of an underdog was Lankinen? The 2019 World Champion posted a sub-90% save mark in the East Coast Hockey League this season. He also put up average numbers for the Rockford Ice Hogs of the AHL. How did such a goaltender manage to stop all but 1 shot from the 30+ NHL standouts playing for Russia and Canada?

Some skaters have a knack for the angles on large ice – it’s an even bigger deal for goalies. Lankinen should probably go home to Europe and become a star playing on the big rinks until they all start downsizing in the next decade. Jim Carey, who backstopped Team USA over the Russians in Lake Placid, was never anything special in the NHL, because the small ice surface changed the angles and made the deficiencies in his game stand out, much like Lankinen’s plight in the Chicago Blackhawks organization.

Kevin Lankinen may never reach the heights of his countryman Tuukka Rask in the NHL. But after Sunday’s gold medal game, he’ll have a spot on the Finland National Team from now until he retires.

*** Bronze Medal Game ***

Russia 3, Czech Republic 2 (SO)

I’ve made plenty of wrong-headed predictions on Stanley Cup and IIHF action over the past 2 months. But it’s even worse to be correct in a prediction and still lose on the moneyline.

Did the heartbroken Russians phone-in for the bronze medal game as expected? Yes. Czech Republic skaters took 50 shots while an opposing “PlayStation” roster of NHL and KHL stars managed only 32.

But for the bronze, at least, the NHL vs Euro goaltending battle was won by a superstar from the Tampa Bay Lightning. Andrei Vasilevsky stopped 48 of the Czech shots and all 5 opposing skaters in a deciding shoot-out.

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*** Update and Gold Medal Game Odds 5/25 ***

Curses. Twice this year I’ve thought I had a prediction made lock, stock, and barrel, only to have a brilliant coaching job take away the ghost.

I took the L.A. Rams to win the Super Bowl, thinking that an NFL defense had finally come along that would stop Tom Brady. I was right! Except that New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick is a magician, and sprang an anachronistic “Jet” defense of his own that made a mockery of the Mountain Goats.

I took Russia to win the World Championship in ’19. Kucherov, Ovie, and Malkin, 3 good reasons, yeah? Well, yeah. But the All-Star cast of forwards was the reason for Team Russia’s relatively-short betting line. I was counting on the team’s underrated blue line and goaltending also holding up better than bookies thought. On that part, WagerBop was 100% correct. When the Russian offense woke up against Team Sweden and Team USA late in the tourney, waters seemed smooth.

Enter Finnish coach Jukka Jalonen, and his devilish move to steal the semifinal.

Facing the Red Machine on Saturday without a single active NHL player, the skipper decided his squad would “trap” – clog up the neutral zone and attack the Russians’ only strategic weak spot.

How do counter-attackers adapt when there’s nothing to counter? Finland had at least 1 forward “locked” on every rush, to the point where wingers on 3-on-2 breaks were looking over their shoulders for a path to skate back.

It’s the defensive system Scotty Bowman used to rack-up rings with the Detroit Red Wings, and its big-ice practitioners are more than happy to play chicken for 3 periods with an equally-cautious opponent.

Team Russia reacted with jitters, not used to playing the kind of “dump and chase” tactics that must be used to “break” the neutral-zone barricade. The semifinal was scoreless forever.

Team USA had attacked Russia aggressively in the Q-Finals, giving Nikita Gusev and other speedsters room to race the other way following rebounds and turnovers. Against Finland, the Russians simply charged headlong into a wall of sticks, bodies, and each other’s ice space.

Frustrated late in the 3rd period of a 0-0 deadlock, Russia got a little impatient and careless in its own end, and allowed a tall, laborious skater named Marko Anttila to get open in front of goalie Andrei Vasilevsky.

Anttila is 6’8″ and 230 pounds, 33 years old, and the team captain who scored the tying goal against Team Sweden in a 5-4 quarterfinal win on Thursday. He is considered too slow and too inaccurate for the NHL, but scored 11 goals in 38 KHL games this season.

On Saturday, he might have set off an earthquake in Helsinki.

What do KHLers do better than any skaters in the world? Defend on big ice. Finland’s tactics were risky in their own right – in retrospect all Russian coach Ilya Vorobyov had to do in the 3rd period was put his own forwards in lock-down mode and get to a 3-on-3 overtime.

Not only would the heroic Ant Man be worthless in that scenario, a 2-pronged OT attack of Kucherov/Gusev/Orlov and Malkin/Ovechkin/Anybody would have been impossible to stop, as deadly as a 4-on-3 for most Worlds squads. Even if the Lions somehow, someway managed to hold off the inevitable for 10 minutes, I’m liking Russia’s chances in a shoot-out too.

Instead, Vorobyov walked right into Jalonen’s trap.

Team Russia’s surprise loss to the All-Euro squad from Finland has opened the door even wider for a surging Team Canada, which feels a new lease on life after scoring yet another do-or-die goal at the very, very last possible moment, this time to tie (and eventually outlast) Switzerland in a thrilling quarterfinal.

Canada went on to swarm the Czech Republic 5-1. Nobody can bamboozle a non-NHL goalie like a group of forechecking Habs who know all the tricks he doesn’t know. That’s a factor that could spell trouble for Finland in the final showdown on Sunday afternoon (US time).

Critics are saying (as usual) that this isn’t the Canadians’ “real” team – not enough of the country’s marquee superstars are donning the Maple Leaf in Slovakia compared to the Sweden or Russia rosters. But which nation has advanced to the gold medal game?

Developing stars like Mark Stone and Thomas Chabot will surely be household names above the border (and in the USA) for a chunk of the next decade. I can see 5-10 members of this Team Canada roster suiting-up if the NHL participates in the Olympics in 2022. For now, the squad’s youth and lack of superstar NHL minutes throughout a long season is an advantage.

This IIHF gold medal game is easy to handicap. We don’t have to talk about a single player. It’s not really about the players. Styles make fights when it comes to NHL vs Euro face-offs.

*** Gold Medal Game Prediction ***

Canada (-190) vs Finland (+155) (Sunday Afternoon US Time) 

Finland could seem like a team of destiny. I’ll go a step further – it’s an historic team even if Canada wins Sunday’s game 7-0.

The Lions – by conquering elite NHL rosters from Sweden and Russia – have proven, absolutely, without a doubt, 100% and forevermore, that European club standouts are not simply “NHL prospects” who tried and failed to land a North American contract. They’re elite ice hockey players who, for whatever reason, are better suited to the wide rinks of the continent. They play defense on international-style ice all year, and it’s a bad idea to fall behind against them.

But all match-ups are different, and the clashing styles on Sunday will create an advantage for Team Canada. Sweden was having major internal problems when the Finland beat Tre-Kronor in the quarters, and Russia lost to a clever mind-game. If Jalonen calls for a left-wing lock or a cautious trap of some sort against the Canadians, the Finns will be punished and beaten by superior athletes. They’ll have to try to kill time in the Canada zone with puck possession instead.

When that happens, look for the Habs to make a little magic of their own on the counter-attack.

I’m liking a youthful Team Canada to break blue hearts and prevail with the gold medals on Sunday. The best line is Canada (-1.5) (+155) at Bovada Sportsbook. 

*** Bronze Medal Game Prediction ***

Russia (-250) vs Czech Republic (+205) (Sunday Morning US Time) 

The more-heralded a national team is, the less-likely it is to give 100% after the gold medals are lost. This was born out at the original “NHL-ympics” in Nagano, Japan, when a devastated Team Canada did not even feign interest in a bronze medal match with Finland.

I’m vibing more of the same phenomenon here. The Czechs are playing at “home” – or the next-best thing to it – and are a great pick to win bronze at (+205). 

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*** Update and Quarterfinal Odds 5/22 ***

Thursday Morning (EST): Team USA (+270) vs Team Russia (-375)

Team Russia got off to a slow start in Slovakia, beating teams like Latvia, Austria and Norway in cautious, sloppy outcomes. Over the course of 10 days, it became clear that Andrei Vasilevsky and the Russian defense corps weren’t allowing many goals. At least not meaningful goals. Still, the Ruskie transition game wasn’t clicking, and even Alex Ovechkin was having a hard time lighting the lamp.

Then, on Tuesday, the Red Machine offense awoke against Team Sweden…and probably would have set some type of global International Ice Hockey Federation record if it wasn’t for the mind-boggling lopsided scores in the lower end of the Women’s divisions.

Except by clobbering Sweden, Russia guaranteed itself a quarterfinal slot against the Stars & Stripes this Thursday.

Team USA, meanwhile, has had a pretty good run for a squad that finished 4th in group play. Cory Schneider has impressed between the pipes. The Yanks have posted a 1-1-1 record against the teams seeded above them and whipped 3rd-seeded Germany behind the veteran’s 24 saves. Only an opening loss to Slovakia doomed the U.S. to be an underdog in the Q-finals.

The Americans appear to have been de-valued at NHL betting sites following the 3-0 loss to Canada on Tuesday – and following the unlucky quarterfinal draw. I’m skeptical of counting the Yanks out on both counts. Ryan Suter and Alec Martinez are world-class leaders of the defense corps, and Alec DeBrincat of the Chicago Blackhawks is having a tremendous tourney with 6 goals in 7 games.

I have been concerned about North American teams’ propensity to send All-Star NHL rosters and lackluster goaltending to the Worlds. If you’re going to send your best-available players anyway, why not take a kick at the can instead of letting a few injury-paranoid GMs spoil the show? Canada solved the problem this year by getting Murray on board.

Schneider, while disappointed in an NHL season in which he was demoted to the minor leagues, is also looking solid in Slovakia with a 92+ % save mark.

But there are 2 good reasons to consider not taking the Yanks among your underdog medal-round bets at the Worlds this year. The #1 reason is a Q-final opponent in red.

Contrary to the pessimistic screeds of Russian hockey fans who long for the days of Slava Fetisov on the blue line, I was actually confident in the Red Machine’s defense corps and goaltending coming into the ’19 Worlds. That confidence has been born-out. Meaningful goals-against were almost nonexistent throughout Russia’s tear through the medal round. When Norway scored a couple of garbage-time goals in the 3rd period, the Ruskies clamped down and shut out Austria, the Czechs, Italy, and (almost) Latvia, giving up 1 goal in a 4-game span.

At the same time, the lack of dominant offense was only a mystery. Alex Ovechkin is often criticized as being a lousy player on big ice (as Patrick Roy once put it, it’s hard to hear the haters with championship bling coming out of your ears), but he’s not the only NHL superstar who wasn’t producing for Russia through 6 games.

If it wasn’t for Malkin, Nikita Gusev, and Evengii Dadonov, the 6-0-0 record might not have come with so little 3rd-period drama.

Enter Tuesday’s tilt with Sweden. The Swedes have plenty of credentials as 2-time defending champs with a recently souped-up roster, while the Russians couldn’t even get late-round eliminated NHL players to come to Slovakia and help.

If Latvia had buried just 2 more chances, they’d have earned a point from Russia in Group B. Perhaps Sweden could turn the trick. Tre-Kronor even took a 1-goal lead against the Red Machine, just to make live-betting Worlds enthusiasts nice and giddy.

Then came the 2nd period – in which Russia. Scored. 6. Bloody. Red. Goals.

Any questions?

To make things worse for the Yanks, Team USA assistant captain Dylan Larkin went down with a groin injury in the match with Team Canada, casting further doubt on the Yanks’ ability to defend the Russians for 3 periods. USAH does not recruit for depth, but rather a thin All-Star cast around which it can develop young prospects like Jack Hughes. It’s fine to have teenage phenoms scoring goals against Denmark in the Group stage, but what do you do when there’s a key injury?

Team USA’s game plan has to be one of intense skating and back-checking. The Americans can’t out-play the Russians, but they can out-work and out-body check them. Problem is that an already-thin roster of locker-room and on-ice leaders is getting even thinner at a bad, bad time.

Thursday Morning: Team Canada (-400) vs Team Switzerland (+285)

The Swiss upset the Canadians in last year’s semifinals thanks to weak goaltending on the Maple Leaf side. That won’t be a problem this year as Matt Murray of the Pittsburgh Penguins is manning the pipes. Murray was excellent in Canada’s 3-0 shut-out of the Americans that concluded the Group A schedule on Monday. Mark Stone and Anthony Mantha are making sure enough pucks fill the net.

Pundits like to count the NHL names on mixed NA + Euro rosters on their fingers and toes. When you hear, “Switzerland just doesn’t look as strong this year, Bob” on NHL Network, that means the analyst spent 2 minutes looking over a Swiss roster and found less of Nico Hischier’s state-side companions skating alongside the New Jersey Devil than were expected to be in Slovakia.

Don’t buy into that – Switzerland’s “National League” players can skate, pass, and shoot with North American pros on a big rink or they wouldn’t give all-NHL rosters hell every time.

That fact, however, doesn’t mean the Swiss are a sure-thing bet on Thursday.

Though the Canadians are skating with only a handful of players among their actual best 20 or 30 cogs from the NHL, Matt Murray is among the top 10 goalies in the world, and he’ll try to make the difference against the Eisgenossen.

Thursday Afternoon: Team Finland (+230) vs Team Sweden (-315)

The Finnish team has truly surprised me at the Worlds this year. As I’ve tried to explain on various blogs, it’s not that a lack of NHL names on the roster are an auto-mark down for a squad with as many good domestic and Russian league players to choose from. But the fact that a Jari Kurri-less management team has been unable to persuade all of the best athletes from those leagues to play has been troubling. It’s not the KHL All-Stars. Team Finland is comprised of overlooked journeymen.

But they’ve got a chip on their shoulder, and sometimes, that’s enough. Sweden has bolstered its size and scoring punch at forward with the recent additions of Gabriel Landeskog and Alexander Wennberg. John Klingberg and Oliver Ekman-Larsson are as good of an attacking 1-2 from the blue line as can ever be found on any level of ice hockey. Yet Sweden is the team that caved to the Russians in the 2nd period and nearly lost to Switzerland and Latvia in group play.

Thursday Afternoon: Team Czech Republic (-500) vs Team Germany (+375)

Leon Draisaitl of the Edmonton Oilers is the unabashed star of Team Germany. The sniper has pumped-in 5 goals and has more than a point per-game in the 2019 World Championship.

Philipp Grubauer of the Colorado Avalanche has also arrived to fortify the Germans in goal.

But the Czechs have potentially their best shot in a while to win a medal. Not only is the team’s Q-final draw immensely better than those suffered by the Yanks or Canucks, the squad has forwards on fire from the NHL and the European leagues alike. Dominik Kubalik of HC Ambri-Piotta is 9th at the Worlds in scoring through 7 games, and Filip Hronek of the Detroit Red Wings is making Motor City fans wish their club could meet National Hockey League foes on an Olympic ice surface.

Update 5/18: It occurs to me that there is a fundamental flaw in how the IIHF Worlds are presented to potential new fans in the United States and beyond. We see a general tournament schedule at IIHF.com, and most of the “obligatory” English-speaking news reports list the next day’s slate of face-offs. What is missing are “team schedules” – clickable frames that show each national team’s upcoming path through the round-robin. 

If team schedules were the standard, it would help viewers make immediate sense of the standings. After the Latvians lost a heart-breaker a few days ago, a pundit from the proud ice hockey nation told an English podcast, “it will be very, very hard now for our team to make the quarterfinals.” Browsers looking at the Group B table saw Latvia sitting in a very competitive position. But the homeland analyst knew that his squad would soon face gold-medal contenders Russia and Sweden. Fans of the Worlds must sort through a maze of hyped matches to piece that kind of “inside” information together. 

As Toni Morrison has said, if you look for something and can’t find it, do it yourself. 

Scroll to the bottom of each team’s section for my thoughts after 9 full days of pond shinny – along with a handy schedule of the nation’s remaining round-robin games. 

A common complaint about the International Ice Hockey Federation’s annual World Championship cycle is that it begins too early in spring, with Division 1 facing-off just as the NHL’s conference semis are getting underway, and the elite 16 nations skating in mid-May prior to the Stanley Cup Finals.

In 2019, the Men’s division of the Worlds can’t begin fast enough. Not for Federation president Rene Fasel, and not for the international pond shinny community.

The Women’s World Championship in April ended in bitter confusion. In one of the most embarrassing and sad spectacles in modern memory, Finland scored in OT of the gold medal game to earn an unlikely upset of powerful Team USA only to have an unseen goal judge overrule on-ice referees and erase the winner.

It took an excruciating 12 minutes to review and negate the golden goal. Athletes who thought they were celebrating an historic victory were forced to grimly pick up their pads, sticks, and helmets and play on.

You can see U.S. goalie Alex Rigsby bursting out of her crease after the rebound, and Lioness skater Jenni Hiirikoski clearly adjusts her right leg to avoid contact. Still the goal was somehow overturned, and the 4-time defending Americans won in a shootout that satisfied absolutely no one. Even fans of USA Hockey were wondering just what the hell had happened.

https://twitter.com/Lakelife144/status/1117529131984543755

Finnish supporters were in shock, asking the Lady Lions to file a formal protest. The IIHF quickly overruled that too.

The IIHF president hemmed and hawed to the press about the villainous “Espoo Eraser” in the booth, saying that the goal was a pure judgement call. Essentially what Fasel meant is that it came down to a video judge’s personal opinion about a grey area. That’s not how reviews of golden goals are supposed to work.

Combined with the IIHF’s awful decision to pursue hosting the World Championship on NHL-sized rinks starting in a few years, the Federation is coming into the Men’s tournament on a string of self-inflicted wounds.

Officials (and especially the flawed video-review system) will be more closely scrutinized than ever once the 2019 Worlds begin in Slovakia on May 10th.

IIHF World Championship Rosters: Stronger Than Advertised

Thankfully there could be some swell hockey on the Men’s side to take everyone’s mind off the screwball finish in Finland.

Contrary to popular belief, the better teams at the Worlds are almost always more talented than NHL squads. Fatigue and club commitments of NHL and KHL superstars can indeed prevent their involvement in a given season. But while WC rosters may not be “best on best,” they’re still representative of the best from every country. At an ordinary Worlds, Sweden might sign-on 20+ of its best and bravest 40 or 50 NHLers. If you offered an NHL GM the chance to start from scratch with ½ of the very top tier of athletes from Canada, Sweden, or Russia, they would be foolish not to take the deal.

Evgenii Dadonov, an offensive dynamo for the Florida Panthers, could struggle to earn 2nd-line ice time with Team Russia in 2019. That’s how strong the top nations are. If you’ve avoided watching the Worlds because “the best players aren’t there,” consider that Bratislava will be chock-full of past, present and future All-Stars in late May, far more than will appear in the Stanley Cup Finals.

Team USA and Team Russia on Collision Course in ’19?

Russia’s program was distracted by winning gold at the Olympic Games in 2018, making the Worlds something of an afterthought last year. But that was then. Surprise availability from familiar old faces in the NHL has freed-up coach Ilya Vorobiev to start molding a scary 1-2-3 punch of forward lines.

Nikita Kucherov, who led the National Hockey League with 128 points this season, is on his way to Slovakia. So is Evgeni Malkin, the centerpiece of the Pittsburgh Penguins’ attack. Ilya Kovalchuk is flying over the pond and suiting up, welcoming a change of scenery after a square-peg round-hole campaign with the losing L.A. Kings.

The Red Machine is getting a massive upgrade between the posts. Andrei Vasilevskiy was let down by the Tampa Bay blue line in the NHL playoffs, but he’ll have studs like Mikhail Sergachyov watching his back at the Worlds.

Then there’s the Kontinental Hockey League to draw from. Karill Kaprizov is a devilish forward who notched the golden goal in South Korea. Mikhail Grigorenko has blossomed offensively since leaving the NHL for big rinks, scoring an amazing 13 goals in 20 tense postseason games while helping Moscow to a Gagarin Cup in April.

Russian lineups always involve weird snubs and politicking. But if I’m putting on the finishing touches for 2019, I’m going to Sergei Mozyakin and Pavel Datsyuk hat-in-hand and bent knees, asking the aging vets to play one final time with a legendary lineup.

Adding 2 of the best passers in the world to the mix would make Russia a solid favorite to win the WC, and potentially lead to some Soviet-style shinny scores like “USSR Russia 13, France 2.”

Team USA is also worthy of a “2.0” next to its brand in ’19.

You might notice looking at World Championship medal history that the Yanks have won gold at the Worlds less often than Haley’s Comet visits Earth. That’s partially because the modern USA Hockey front office has tried to have its cake and eat it too in IIHF tournaments, using the events to prepare NHL rookies for their pro careers and for an Olympic appearance that may never come.

Young players can prosper at the Worlds thanks to the big ice and lack of vicious checking, but it takes a special teenager to skate and shoot with the big boys. There have been so many nondescript NCAA players invited to wear the Stars & Stripes at the Worlds, reporters have to qualify whether they’re talking about junior or senior Yankee rosters.

Thankfully those days are coming to an end. The United States is consistently grinding its way into the medal round with speed, veteran presence, and good goaltending.

American stars of the NHL are showing up. A grand total of 11 1st-round draft picks are playing for Team USA in Slovakia.

Is Old Glory matched against the Russians in Group play? Nope. The USA is in Group A alongside Canada, while the Ruskies must deal with defending-champ Sweden in Group B.

But that doesn’t mean a good old East vs West grudge match can’t happen in the medal round.

World Championship rosters are fluid and embellished even during the tourney itself. I’ll update a running tally of committed/semi-committed NHL (and noteworthy European) professionals appearing for each country on the scroll below.

Current outright-winner Vegas lines provided by Bovada Sportsbook.

IIHF Worlds: Group A Tournament Notes (Updated 5/18) 

Canada (Futures Odds Not Available)

Matt Murray of the Pens will start in goal, potentially curing the Canucks’ ailment during a dreary upset loss to Switzerland last May – the goaltenders.

Team Canada’s only real weakness at the Worlds in ’18 was in goal. Coaches had assembled a fantastic group of NHL skaters including Connor McDavid, Ryan O’ Reilly, and Aaron Ekblad. Swiss “National League A” forwards are not burly enough to withstand 82 NHL games, but they’re devilish on big ice. Switzerland’s tic-tac-toe power play was poetry in motion.

That doesn’t mean the Habs didn’t have issues. Career backups and flashes-in-the-pan just won’t do between the pipes at the Worlds. Not if you expect to win gold, and Canada always does.

Carter Hart and Mackenzie Blackwood will back up Murray, while Tyler Bertuzzi and Sean Couturier are committed NHL selections. Canada occasionally names a KHL player to the squad, and I’m hoping Alan Vigneault looks at defenseman Matthew Maione, a “Paul Coffey of the KHL” for Dinamo Riga.

Last year’s captain McDavid has excused himself with injuries, while Sidney Crosby politely declined due to the New York Islanders having taken his formerly good mood down a peg or 2.

Update 5/1: Canada has been unable to recruit a marquee superstar to lead the squad in Slovakia. The defense is young and includes only 6 National Hockey League names and 1 NCAA player.

Mark Stone of the Vegas Golden Knights will push his way into the slot and beat marginal goaltenders time and again, but the Habs’ roster is mostly a “B” team compared to what it would be at an NHL-attended Olympics or World Cup.

Perennial WC leader Ryan O’ Reilly has finally found playoff success in St. Louis, and the Blues’ deep run in the 2018-19 postseason may prevent the national team from icing any veteran forwards over 29 years of age. I can see this team’s stock trending downward.

Update 5/4: North America is still hedging its bets in bids to win the Worlds while not putting too many high-priced commodities in harm’s way. Canada brought famed snipers and a deep, massive blueline to Denmark in ’18 but with a pair of journeymen in goal. This season, coach Alan Viganault has persuaded National Hockey League GMs to allow the opposite approach.

The Maple Leaf will consist of an All-Star caliber goalie and a roster of 10-to-30 goal-scorers fresh out of the cradle. The average age of the entire team is 24, but the squad could easily contend in the NHL playoffs. The Carolina Hurricanes don’t have crazy talents like Thomas Chabot just hoping for a chance at a top D-pairing.

Defense will be a key indeed – Viganault’s plan is to wear down European squads with relentless speed and checking. But it will backfire if pairings are stricken by injury.

The coach also likely believes that the 5-on-4 man advantage can be deadly on an IIHF pond. Canada will draw plenty of penalties with puck-cycling in the offensive end, but can’t get too aggressive on the back-check, or else the team risks being short-handed just as often.

Update 5/7: Chabot has indeed earned a spot in the top pairing in pre-tournament friendlies alongside Brandon Montour of the Anaheim Ducks, who had a prodigious 27 assists in 82 games. Darnell Nurse is anchoring the 2nd pairing.

Canada certainly has closer to a “B” team than an “A” team. The Habs won’t possess the confidence or the pure passing and sniping of Russia, but can hope to get by on goaltending and athleticism. No team will be bigger, faster, meaner, or stingier between the pipes.

Update 5/12: Top-line forward John Tavares is injured and won’t play at the World Championship, which is exactly what we worry about when North American teams send too many rookies and not enough veteran stopgaps. Team Canada got off to a lousy start with a 3-1 loss to Finland, and Sunday’s game was a ceremonial 8-0 win over Great Britain.

Update 5/18: The Canadians appeared to be coasting without a plan, having no elite players in hand to replace any of the fallen. Brandon Montour of the Buffalo Sabres has gone down, bringing into sharp focus the issue of depth on defense. Mark Stone remains an unquestioned A-#1 gunslinger up front, and scored one of the truly thrilling goals in WC history to beat Slovakia with chalk-drop time left in a 6-5 shoot-out on Monday.

Canada leveled former Group A leader Germany 8-1 on Saturday, Stone netting a hat trick in the surprise blow-out win. Perhaps there’s a spark in the program after all. Peaking for the medal round? That’s good timing.

The Maple Leaf faces a weak Denmark side on Monday at 2 PM EST before meeting Team USA in a marquee Tuesday afternoon face-off.

United States 

Here’s a link to the confirmed-yet-preliminary (read: subject to added reinforcements from the NHL ranks) American roster.

It’s quietly one of the more impressive lineups headed to Slovakia, full of brawn and relentless legs.

Looking at selections who have been through the Worlds before, like Gary Suter on defense and Patrick Kane at forward, you can only surmise that the returning stars have a burning desire to win or they wouldn’t be there.

NHL-centric fans like to say “nobody tries hard” at the World Championship following Team USA’s elimination. It’s crazy how people talk themselves into thinking that 31-year-old Alec Martinez would skip a gorgeous spring in SoCal to play hockey in Eastern Europe just for the lulz, or something.

The real factor that had held Team USA back is that “Jocky McWolverine” all-too often found himself at the Worlds as a training exercise. Quinn Hughes, the only NCAA entry on the roster in ’19, is a 7th-overall draft pick with Men’s WC experience and feet like the Road Runner.

I’m worried about the goaltending, though. Not one Team USA goalie currently on the roster has avoided a demotion to the AHL this season, and the fact that Cory Schneider is training with a group of 3, not 2 GKs, makes me think the spots are settled. Hope not. The U.S. must open against host Slovakia, a team which has bothered the Americans.

Update 5/1: Dynamic forward Auston Matthews has been successfully bribed by the Toronto Maple Leafs  chosen not to play for Team USA, a major bummer. Matthews’ presence could have helped turn the Yanks into a top-2 favorite at the Worlds in 2019.

As it stands, however, the team is still athletic-enough to give Russia trouble, assuming that the goaltending holds up.

Update 5/4: USA Hockey is back to its teenager fetish – a fetish for adding WJC standouts to the World Championship squad.

Jack Hughes will play in the WC at age 17, but he’s talented enough to make an impact against Slovakia or Denmark. It’s just doubtful that a lack of NHL-veteran reserves won’t come back to haunt this team if a 2nd or 3rd-line combination sputters and needs a push.

Update 5/7: The eliminations of the Stars and Blue Jackets from the NHL postseason have a yet-to-be-seen effect on the United States team, if any effect at all. Ben Bishop would of course be the savior at a shaky GK position, but high-priced goaltenders don’t tend to visit the Worlds after a grueling 2-round playoff run and nearly 100 minutes of backstopping just 3 days before the tournament.

Nevertheless, the squad’s futures line-to-win gold is shrinking fast.

Update 5/12: Like the Canadians, the Yanks were surprised by a side full of European club players on Friday, falling to Slovakia 4-1. But it would be a mistake to describe the loss as a letdown against an ordinary WC squad.

The atmosphere at Steel Arena was electric for the hosts’ opening match. Team USA probably had no real idea what it was walking – or skating into. The Slovaks gave 110% in front of a thunderous crowd, out-shooting the Americans 36-26 and dominating the flow of the contest.

But importantly for the United States, GK Cory Schneider played an excellent game and prevented the score from getting even more out-of-hand. A much better-organized Yankee squad beat France 7-1 on Sunday.

Of course, it was easier to for forward lines to communicate without football cheers and kettle drums ringing throughout the rink.

Update 5/18: Team USA is in the precarious position of 4th place in Group A without really having done much to deserve it. The Yanks have beaten all of the heavy underdogs, beaten Finland in OT, and have only the opening loss to the Slovaks marring their record.

Yet an upset loss to Germany at 10 AM EST on Sunday would put the team’s expected Q-final bid in jeopardy.

As mentioned, Team Canada looms over a 2 PM face-off 2 days later.

Finland 

The Lions are having a hard time getting their finest skaters to the dance. Jari Kurri isn’t the GM anymore, and passing specialist Henri Jokiharju of Chicago is the only official commit as of April 23rd.

Nashville’s loss to the Dallas Stars will likely help the proud Finns fortify in goal and elsewhere. Quality KHLers are available from Jokerit.

Update 5/1: Finland is still extremely short on North American participation and will struggle to contend with a crew of Euro professionals. The nation’s futures line to win gold has jumped to 12-to-1 from its former (+800) number.

800 number? Call 1-800 dial-an-Aho. Sebastian Aho is still in the playoffs with the Carolina Hurricanes after leading the Finns to an upset win over Canada last year. Perhaps he’ll show up to the tourney late and jet-lagged…still not an ideal scenario.

Update 5/4: The “Sweep, Caroline” result between the Hurricanes and Islanders is very bad news for the Lions. In the fashion of some of Team USA’s lazier efforts in the 2000s, NHL prospect Kappo Kakko will be asked to help lead the Finnish offense.

Finland ’19 would at least stand as a test-case for what a quality batch of Liiga and KHL pros could do for the program, but through a collection of unlucky circumstances and severed player-management ties, the team is down to employing unproven skaters from those leagues.

The fact that Finland’s futures line has only moved to (+1300) over the past several days shows that Bovada bettors are not paying close attention.

Update 5/7: Finland’s gold medal market is (+1400) now, still inching longer but nothing you’d call a line jump. Maybe gamblers know to be patient when handicapping the World Championship, because really good players sometimes get a green light to take part at the last minute.

The Lions ought to have been helped by the Game 6 and Game 7 eliminations over the last 2 nights. A total of 7 Finnish players dot the CBJ and Stars rosters combined. But many are dealing with expiring contracts and potential free agency, and others simply seem uninterested to represent Suomi. More’s the pity.

Update 5/12: After 2 games there are 2 out of 3 non-NHL players dotting the top of the stat sheet, and the hottest futures pick of the round-robin (with a line shrinking fast at Bovada) is a team with 0 NHLers at all.

With a catch, of course – Finland’s Kappo Kakko is a top-2 NHL draft pick and will almost certainly be skating on American ponds in 2019-20. The 18-year-old phenom is leading the WC with 5 goals in 6 periods and has electrified Suomi fans and state-side draftniks alike.

https://twitter.com/NJDevils/status/1126857358523731968

Unfortunately the Finns’ current single-digit payoff line is a mirage at the sportsbook, and those who didn’t take Team Finland to win gold at previous much-longer odds should stay away.

I believe firmly that a lineup of the best 20 European club players can beat any Stanley Cup champion on Olympic ice. I even think there’s a place on the podium at the World Championship for teams built around non-NHL role players. Switzerland has proven that.

But the Lions just don’t have a world-class offense outside of Kakko. It’s not that the talent hails from Liiga and other Euro club leagues, it’s that almost no one on the squad who is over 18 has had a great season making plays and tricking goalies in any league.

Finland adheres to a unique system that can baffle opponents, but the size of the net is ultimately the same for everyone.

A North American IIHF pundit on Twitter excused Team Canada’s opening loss to Finland by saying that the latter national program is “incredibly deep.” I beg to differ. The Swiss, Latvian, and Czech rosters all pack more punch than the Finnish forward lines on a 12-deep basis. The squad is likely to be ground down by a lack of goals in the round-robin or quarterfinals.

Can Kakko keep it going? Finland’s emotional 4-2 win over Slovakia on Saturday provided no evidence that he can’t. It’s a long tournament, though. Youngsters often make a big splash in the group stage thanks to fresh legs and skating room on the big ice – just another reason why it’s a lousy idea to put the WC on NHL-sized rinks.

No teenager can carry an offense through the medal round single-handed. The opening weekend of the World Championship has shown once again that KHLers and other European pros are among the very best, but their specialty is defense, and Finland’s KHL players are nothing special.

Analysts used to make fun of NHL rosters who lost to Euro-based international teams. Now, the tendency seems to be to overrate the nations Canada loses to.

Update 5/18: The success of Finland, Switzerland and Germany in this year’s “World Cup” (as it is called in those countries) is especially delightful, because it has caused a lot of NHL Network comments like:

“Well you know uh, Bob, Finland doesn’t have much talent, uh, I mean, they don’t have a single NHL player. But they uh, work hard and uh, get lots of lucky bounces to aid their rudimentary 4th-line ECHL skill level, and uh, they’re doing well here at this event the boss is making me cover.”

The “elephant in the room” is that as much as Finland is relying on hot North American prospect Kappo Kakko for scoring, there are also a couple of things KHL and Liiga pros can do better than NHL players, like defend talents such as Mark Stone and Tomas Tatar on an international rink with Olympic-style rules. It’s not NHL players’ fault that they’re not as flawless when defending in very wide spaces without contact. They don’t get to practice it often.

Despite missing their best goalies, the Finns have given up a grand total of 7 goals in 5 games. Only Russia and Switzerland – who also have European club talent manning the blue line – have been better defensively.

Someone low on the NHLN food chain is bound to slip and reveal this obvious fact on the air, and at that point they’ll become Trudy from Mad Men and Bob Errey will become Dorothy Dyckman Campbell.

Finland meets France at 2 PM EST on Sunday and Germany in an early contest on Tuesday.

Slovakia 

The advantage of playing host to the Worlds is that the tourney is such a big deal in Europe, players who are healthy and available dare not skip a trip home to play.

But with a limited number of NHL players and almost no viable KHL talent, Slovak skipper Craig Ramsay must follow the Stanley Cup playoffs and stay patient. He has picked up Marko Daňo from the Jets and Erik Černák from the Lightning so far.

Update 5/1: I can’t understand why the Slovaks’ gold-medal futures line is lengthening. Ramsay has collected a fine batch of talented pros from the NHL, including Richard Pánik and exciting playmaker Tomas Tatar of the Montreal Canadians. If the Boston Bruins are eliminated in the 2nd round of the NHL playoffs, cornerstone D-man Zdeno Chara will fly to his homeland with bells on.

Slovakia is not a bad futures pick at all, especially in Bovada’s “Top Central European Team” market at (+350).

Update 5/4: There are 4 NHL and 2 KHL defensemen on the hosts’ current roster – that’s good news since the squad’s best Slovakian club D-man, Patrik Koch, is 22 years old and takes far too many penalties. Too much 4-on-5 at the Worlds is bad juju.

American fans are familiar with Ladislav Nagy, a play-making winger in the NHL who has preferred to spend his 30s playing in Europe.

David Bondra has also emerged as a goal-scorer for Poprad this season. (Yes, Peter is his pappy.)

But if the Slovaks are going to make a Cinderella run in the medal round it will be because a goaltender stands on his head. Right now it’s hard to say whom that kind of performance could potentially come from.

GK Patrik Rybár has been treading water with the Grand Rapids Griffins of the American Hockey League, while Marek Ciliak earned a WC spot with a hot streak in the Czech playoffs after bombing out of the KHL. Denis Godla has suffered hideous slumps for the Finnish club KalPa.

General manager Miroslav Šatan is hoping NHL ace Jaroslav Halák becomes available between the pipes, but that’s unlikely with the Bruins leading the Blue Jackets 3 games to 2.

Update 5/7: The Bruins advanced to the 3rd round, so the squad is still missing its long-time emotional leader, Chara.

Update 5/12: It’s strange that Slovakia could come out and whip the United States on Friday and still be a 33-to-1 gold medal bet going into Monday morning. While a 4-2 loss to Finland may put a short-term damper on things, the host nation has still made a statement.

While I think the public’s long-shot money should be aimed at the Slovaks instead of the Finns, the betting action at least indicates that bettors are getting the message about Euro talent compared to the NHL.

Slovakia has enough NHL skaters to form a nucleus, while Finland’s best player is a kid from Turun Palloseura who scored 22 goals in Liiga this season. Yet high-roller speculators are thinking the Lions have an X-factor – call it a “knack o’ Kakko” – that could put them on the podium.

Update 5/18: The path to a medal bid was always going to be on a tightrope for Naši chlapci. Horrible spills happened twice in a row as Canada and Germany broke hometown hearts with late winners, Stone’s coming with less than 2 seconds left in a game the Slovaks badly needed points from.

There is still a chance for Slovakia to pass the United States, which they beat in the Group A opener. But it would entail the Yanks having a really bad day against Team Germany and then losing a must-win game to Canada.

The hosts will finish-out against Denmark on Tuesday morning.

Germany 

Update 5/9: I was caught unaware that there was a team called the Los Angeles Kings in the NHL and that former German national team coach Marco Sturm is a part of it now. Pardon me.

Leon Draisaitl’s loyalty to the national program matches his phenomenal level of NHL stardom.

The German DEL is an above-average league, and its skaters make noise at the Worlds. But watch out for Dominik Kahun of the Blackhawks, a crafty forward who was fantastic against Russia at the Olympics.

Update 5/1: Still waiting for final cuts and a confirmed roster of 22.

Update 5/4: The elimination of the New York Islanders creates an intriguing opportunity to bolster the German roster. Goaltender Thomas Greiss had a terrific 2018-19 campaign in the Big Apple and has played for Germany in the Olympics and at the World Championship.

Dennis Seidenberg is a former team captain who supporters doubt will come along for the ride this time. Tom Kühnhackl, meanwhile, is an Islander who showed up to Olympic qualifying in 2017 despite never once suiting up for the Men’s Worlds. His current contract ending in 2019 makes Greiss the most-likely addition of the trio.

Update 5/7: Germany lost a friendly to the United States today, but Dominik Kahun looks like the dom-inating presence on international ice that he was in the 2018 Winter Olympics.

Update 5/12: Germany is another team that could be getting long-shot play ahead of the early-charging Finns. The Germans have held serve against Great Britain and Denmark, and just as importantly, are soon to welcome Philipp Grubauer of the Colorado Avalanche in goal.

It’s interesting how pundits continue to say the Worlds never pit the best against the best. I think it’s more of a Team Canada/USA problem and recently a Team Finland problem. Programs like Slovakia, Sweden, Russia, Latvia and Germany continue to see all-out loyalty from star NHLers even as their stock grows in America. Grubauer could have begged-off with minor injuries like Ben Bishop of the Dallas Stars surely did, but no, he caught a red eye to Bratislava.

Update 5/18: Germany appeared to be dominating the Worlds until the squad ran into Canada’s buzz-saw. Team USA and Finland await on Sunday morning and Tuesday morning respectively.

Denmark 

The scrappy Danes are hoping that Frederik Andersen of the Toronto Maple Leafs is available by the time France comes calling on May 11th. The current roster is replete with quality European talent, and Mikkel Bødker of the Ottawa Senators is on the way soon.

Update 5/1: Andersen has revealed a mid-season injury that will keep him out of the World Championship. The team’s line has jumped to 66-to-1 but without an elite GK it might as well be 1000-to-1.

Not that Denmark won’t make noise and threaten a few aristocrats in the round-robin as usual.

Update 5/4: Lars Eller of the Washington Capitals is on the way to Slovakia.

I still don’t see a medal in the team’s near future. Losing Andersen makes it too tough.

Update 5/7: Like a lot of underdog nations, Denmark isn’t so much out-manned as under-manned. 3 NHL players are now essentially confirmed, including Nikolai Ehlers, and Oliver Bjorkstrand of Columbus could also choose to play. There are quality players from Helsinki’s KHL club on the roster, but little scoring punch from the swath of Swedish and German club players.

Hopes will be pinned on Nicolai Meyer, a late-blooming 25-year-old playmaker from the SHL’s Malmö Redhawks who may draw interest from National Hockey League scouts in Slovakia.

(The highlights are great, but if you find the play-by-play delivery to be  similar to that of an alt-heavy metal vocalist whose room service rhymes with “illegal substance,” you’re not the only one.)

Denmark’s other issue is that there is a gigantic drop-off from Andersen to the next-best available goaltenders. All 3 veterans on the Dane roster are journeymen from Europe who whiffed on opportunities to join the big leagues. I don’t know of a defensive system that can hold off the NHLers with that kind of GK chart.

Update 5/12: The betting public caught a gander of the Danes against Germany and decided that they’re not a sleeper for a medal. I could have told you that. I did tell you that, actually.

Update 5/18: The Danes need their #1 goaltender. Maybe next year. For now, games against Canada on Monday afternoon EST and Slovakia less than 20 hours later are nobody’s favorite way to end a tournament. Especially in Slovakia.

France

Antoine Roussel and other key cogs are hurt, meaning that France has no chance at the dance:

So don’t get ants in your pants about that 200-to-1 payoff which would never occur.

Update 5/1: I’m not sure why France’s gold-medal line lengthened to 250-to-1 except that other nations’ rosters are getting stronger while the French squad still looks out-manned.

Update 5/4: It’s not looking any better for the other “Les Bleus.” There are 15+ minor-league players on the squad. At this point, I’d be willing to give Paul Pogba a chance.

Update 5/7: Speaking of soccer-mad nations, watch for the moneyline on Great Britain to beat France on May 20th. The U.K. team will have been beaten up by then, slaughtered by 5 and 10 goals at a time against a Murderer’s Row of Canada, Team USA, and host Slovakia (which has already blown out the Brits in a friendly). Meanwhile France will have looked competitive and perhaps won a game or 2 thanks to experience and a handful of NL and Liiga skaters.

But the newcomers in Group A must know that France is their best shot at an upset win and a spot in the 2020 tournament.

Update 5/12: France did well to get a point in an opener against Denmark, but relegation is still likely to be decided when the English and French face-off.

Update 5/18: The French will keep things light against Finland on Sunday afternoon and try to beat the British on Monday morning EST. Is there any advantage the single point in the standings gives them going in?

Yes, as in the case of an OT or shoot-out loss (to my understanding) France would still avoid relegation.

Great Britain 

I’m thrilled to see the Brits back on the elite level of world hockey, and they can play really well, too. But the team is disappointingly turning into “little Russia.”

Top domestic league talent has been snubbed off the roster, complete with veiled sniping about work ethic. Coach Peter Russell hasn’t given a thought to inviting British-Americans from the NHL or AHL to play, as they surely would if Great Britain hosted the Men’s Olympic tournament.

A heavy underdog can’t afford a domineering staff that makes crazy roster moves just to prove points. Too much is riding on the squad’s bid to stay in the top 16.

Watch for NHL draft pick Liam Kirk to score a goal against France.

Update 5/1: Russell has threatened to hold any player out of the tournament who isn’t from Liverpool or doesn’t drink Guinness.

Just kidding.

Update 5/4: Great Britain opened training camp just 6 days before the Worlds, and has played only a single friendly so far – a 6-1 loss to Slovakia.

Just 2 more mistakes by a green-horn skipper who could be as over-matched as his squad competing in the top 16.

Update 5/7: Britain must focus on beating France and trying to steal a point at a time in a few other games. The last time the U.K. and France squared off in official World pond shinny was in 2006, and on that day it took 2-time Olympian Fred Rozenthal to break a 0-0 tie in the 3rd period and give the French a 1-0 win. Not a whole lot has changed in the hockey cultures of each nation since then, except for GB going on a nuclear hot-streak in Division 1.

2020 can happen, but May 20th is the likeliest opportunity to seal destiny.

Update 5/12: Great Britain proved with a 3-1 loss to Germany that the team will be plenty competitive against slower-paced opponents and can potentially get a win.

Then a “ceremonial” 8-0 drubbing by Canada showed just how far the top pros of English club hockey still have yet to go.

On the bright side, Britain did manage a few rushes, and wasn’t totally out-classed by the NHL studs. Until, that is, the Canadian team got in close and decided it was time to score.

Update 5/18: Great Britain has played a few pretty good games against the better teams, including a 6-3 loss to a sleepwalking Team USA that got by-jove interesting for a short while.

Monday’s “relegation game” with France is all that is left. A British coach told a reporter with the Totally Ice Hockey Show on Friday that the staff has been afraid to circle the wagons from a defensive POV even if it would keep the scores closer against NHL and KHL-laden squads. Reason being if the British lines ended up in “penalty killing” mode too often during 5-on-5, blocked shots could have lead to injury prior to the GBR-FRA face-off.

It’s clear everyone involved with the English team has known all along what’s truly important for newcomers at the WC – beat your weakest opponent so you can play in the top 16 again next year.

Great Britain has gotten to Monday’s final game healthy enough. Now let’s see how it goes from here.

IIHF Worlds: Group B Roster Notes 

Sweden 

Team Sweden consistently pulls from the very best of the NHL.

Remember that thing about certain Worlds rosters eclipsing your local NHL ham-and-eggers? See exhibit A for Group B:

It would be cool if the World Championship was always “best on best.” But the ever-changing rosters, and the struggle of nations to find 20+ elite skaters who aren’t too banged-up to play, make the WC a test of each ice hockey culture in addition to a test of skill on the ice. The resolve of veterans to represent their flag at all costs is a crucial ingredient to winning the world title. That’s a legit angle for a championship.

When a team shows up to play with a “B” squad, it doesn’t mean the Worlds is a bad tournament. It means they fooled around and lost it before arriving.

Sweden does not lose often at the IIHF World Championships.

Update 5/1: Sweden has the ingredients needed for another easy jaunt to the medal round…except for the team they’ve drawn a round-robin bid against.

Update 5/4: Sweden’s blue line looks very strong with Oliver Ekman-Larsson leading the group. But not every forward line is looking stellar in friendlies, and GM Tommy Boustedt is paying close attention to how the NHL’s 2nd-round playoff series shake out. The good news is that the WC begins in plenty of time for athletes eliminated in 6-7 games to make it to Europe.

The schedule may also help the Swedes as they wait for reinforcements. There is a gap of 8 full days between dangerous opponents as Tre-Kronor faces the Czechs on 5/10 and the Swiss on 5/18 with matches against Italy, Norway, and Austria sandwiched in-between.

Update 5/7: Obviously the Stars’ loss makes Sweden fans pine for John Klingberg. The wizardly D-man is one of the finest passers in the world and scores like a top-end forward for the popular franchise. But he appears racked with minor injuries and likely won’t chance a last-minute dash over the Atlantic to play more grueling games.

I might reach out to Alexander Wennberg, a forward from Columbus who fits the mold of a WC workhorse at age 24. He’s in a scoring slump that has essentially lasted a season, but is proven on the IIHF stage and would provide energy late in the round robin.

Update 5/12: I want to take a moment to brag on the Totally Ice Hockey Show podcast, which interviews various experts on the World Championships during the tournament. The podcast helped me confirm my own sanity during the Group B round-robin, as Sweden just appeared to be lacking something in the first 2 contests, something that I couldn’t put my finger on.

“Smaller,” said a veteran Russian guest on the 3rd installment of the podcast on Slovakia. “This Swedish group smaller, less big forwards, less power around net.”

Sweden opened with a 5-2 loss to the Czech Republic, an upset that seems totally logical in hindsight. Tre-Kroner is still as talented as hell with Elias Pettersson manning the helm of a slick offense. But missing are the kingly forward lines that push their way into position and overwhelm every stick-check and body-grab in the slot. It’s a pure finesse team like Switzerland.

This Swedish roster must learn a patient counterattacking style on the fly. A daunting Group B schedule still lies ahead with games against the Swiss, Latvians and Russians.

Update 5/18: Wennberg has indeed made the trip to Slovakia, as well as Gabriel Landeskog, a forward whose size and sniping will be welcome on the Swedes’ top lines. Sweden was already pretty good, but smallish and 1-dimensional. The addition of the 2 new NHL forwards makes the squad look just a little bit more like the ones that have been winning gold medals.

Sweden’s new/old physical presence came in handy during a 4-3 win over Switzerland in a barn-burner on Saturday. The team is hovering close to 1st place in Group B but faces challenging opponents in Latvia on Monday morning and Russia on Tuesday afternoon.

Russia 

The Red Machine will either be pretty good, or scary good. It depends on how things shake out with remaining NHL candidates.

Imagine Alex Ovechkin and Artemi Panarin joining the squad already in place. Wowzer.

Here’s a link to the Russian commits so far. Provorov isn’t on there, but you can count him in.

Update 5/1: The Philadelphia Flyers are praying Provorov doesn’t sign a new contract in time to make it to Slovakia trying to help Provorov sign a new deal and get to Slovakia quickly. But even if the defense corps takes a minor blow, the puck-moving defenders already recruited by the Red Machine should be enough to facilitate healthy scoring up front.

(Mini-Update 5/19: I really shouldn’t mock the Flyers, who have 9 players in Slovakia. I think the front office may have decided to actively pursue not having double-digits at the tournament if at all possible, though.)

It’s easy to facilitate scoring when Hall of Famers are fighting for 2nd-line spots.

Ovechkin is going. So are his teammates Evgeny Kuznetsov and Dmitri Orlov. The result of the Columbus Blue Jackets’ 2nd-round series could wind up freeing Panarin to join the ranks, but he’d be battling for ice time along with everyone else.

Ilya Kovalchuk will captain a team of NHL and KHL legends, backstopped by one of the 2 best Ruskie goalkeepers in the world. Russia’s backup GK Ilya Sorokin is probably better than Team USA’s starter Cory Schneider. In my opinion the line on Russia to win gold should be at least as short as (+200) at this point…hurry and place those bets before it shrinks any further.

Update 5/4: Russian hockey fanatics are one of the more pessimistic supporters’ groups in all of sports. A loud minority are grousing that the ’19 Red Machine defense “sucks,” about which I think we should all have a refresher on the meaning of that word in English.

There is still no official word on Provorov, which puts comrades in a bad mood. But with names like Zaitsev and Orlov dotting the top pairings, plus the presence of Nikita Nesterov, a former NHL defenseman who was brilliant with Moscow in the KHL playoffs, the Russian transition game should be 200% better than in the last 5 world tournaments including Korea ’18.

One athlete from the Philadelphia Flyers won’t make the difference between gold and silver. KHL defensemen are the best in the world at defending in space without body contact (handy when strict IIHF refs have the whistle) so it’s healthy for Russia not to run with 7 NHL blue liners.

Meanwhile, assuming – or not – that the squad picks up Vladimir Tarasenko of St. Louis and/or Panarin from Columbus (each club is on the brink of 2nd-round elimination) the Russian forward lines are poised to be as strong as they were in the 2014 Olympics.

If Tarasenko and Panarin are added bright and early, the lineup will become Fantasy-level, like something you put together for fun on PlayStation.

Russia is my preliminary lock-down futures pick and (+255) is a great bargain. I’ll post official gold-silver-bronze predictions and best bets on May 7th.

Update 5/7: Philly’s GM said something to a reporter about re-signing free agents “over the summer,” so I’m thinking Provorov could be a no-go after all.

However, the Red Machine has landed a committal from Vladislav Gavrikov, an elite KHL defenseman who led St. Petersburg in +/- by a mile over names like Gusev and Datsyuk but vanished in the KHL playoffs, in-part due to the distraction of an impending move to Columbus of the NHL.

Sometimes a World Championship is a breath of fresh air for a young player who has let media pressure get the best of him. At any rate, Russian supporters seem to trust Gavrikov more than the previous “4th” defenseman on the depth chart. The 23-year-old lefty scored twice in the 2018 Olympics, a tournament in which goals from blue liners were hard to come by.

Panarin is a much longer-shot to arrive in Slovakia given his contract status, but I suspect he’s got a few text messages popping up from potential All-Star teammates. Alex Radulov of the Stars is under contract for a long while and could decide to play in his first Worlds since 2013.

One thing that has never seemed to impact a World Championship or Olympic gold is whether a team’s 4th line is full of elite finesse players. Goaltending is more important than squeezing in a few extra shots-on-goal…and the Russians have the best 1-2 punch of net-minders in 2019.

Update 5/12: Well, unless there’s a sweep or a 5-game result in the NHL’s conference finals, it looks like the Red Machine will just have to go with who they’ve got. Ho-hum. I guess they could try a 1st line of Ovechkin, Kucherov and Malkin. Or Gusev and Malkin and Kuznetzov. Or Kuznetzov and Kaprizov and Dadonov. Or…

Russia has scored 10 goals and allowed 2 against Norway and Austria. Russia vs Sweden will not happen for over a week.

Update 5/18: There are 2 ways to look at Russia’s form so far. You can say that the Red Machine is almost impenetrable in goal, explosive on offense, and able to take over games at any time. All of that is true.

But the team isn’t exactly clicking in transition. Chances aren’t always coming as easily as they should. The offense almost looks sticky somehow.

Gold medal Russian teams patiently defend until it’s time to counter-attack, puck-handle in the attack zone until a scoring chance develops, and work cohesively around the rink with good gap control. This Ruskie team has too-often been impatient, taking wild slap shots and one-timers, pressing the issue without the puck, and causing games to turn ragged. In those circumstances, even Norway and Austria have been able to stave off a Malkin-Ovechkin-Kucherov-Gusev apocalypse for periods at a time.

Teams are praying to see Russia in a choppy, chippy elimination game. When forwards are trading rushes and the flow of the game is smooth, no team in the medal round can out-score them. Anything is possible, however, in a sloppy and penalty-filled contest.

Some Red Machine supporters have spent weeks saying “our defense sucks” due to the smattering of KHLers on the blue line. With no small irony, it’s really the forwards who have under-achieved so far. Russia’s defense corps and GK have allowed 1 – count it – 1 meaningful goal in 5 games.

The squad finishes Group B play against Switzerland on Sunday afternoon and Sweden on Tuesday afternoon.

Czech Republic 

The Czechs have been backsliding internationally since winning Olympic gold in 1998.

Only a couple of NHLers are officially signed-up in 2019, but we can expect a few more. Coach Miloš Říha will want reinforcements early as Sweden lurks in the round robin on May 10th.

Update 5/1: Again there’s a line moving longer despite the team getting stronger. The Czechs have recruited 6 forwards from the NHL including the excellent Jakub Voracek and dependable veteran Michael Frolik.

Skeptics probably see the nation’s domestic-league and KHL blue line and conclude that the Czech Republic won’t have the firepower or brawn of a Team USA or Team Sweden. But the squad’s weakness at recent World Championships has been a lack of speed at forward. The NHLers will help with that. Czech defenders and goalies have played fine and haven’t been the issue.

Update 5/4: Radko Gudas of the Flyers will bolster the blue line.

Update 5/7: Heck, the Czechs are sneaking up on everybody. I know I’m not supposed to count NHL players and handicap a team that way, but Říha’s got 10 and counting.

That’s especially important for a program that just doesn’t have the depth of KHL talent Russia or even Finland possesses. CZE can draw a few elite players from various points in Europe, but they’d never contend with an almost-entirely domestic squad like Switzerland or Latvia.

As it stands the Czechs don’t have an NHL goalie, but other than that they’re almost looking like a sleeper at 15-to-1.

Update 5/12: Dominik Kubalik is the 3rd-leading scorer at the Worlds after 2 games. The 23-year-old wing from Ambrì-Piotta of the Swiss league had a goal and an assist in the Czechs’ 5-2 upset of Sweden and followed-up with 3 points in a 7-2 pounding of Norway.

Update 5/18: One problem that Finland has is that even if Suomi wins Group A, the 4th place team in Group B is liable to be as tough to play as anybody else the Finns could have matched-up against. Like the Czech Republic.

The Czechs have a key game against Switzerland coming up at 6 AM EST on Tuesday following a lay-up over Austria at 10 AM Sunday. Even if the Swiss win I’d still think an 80% domestic roster would get pushed around by the North Americans in a Q-final or semifinal easier than CZE would.

Switzerland 

The glorious Swiss upset of Team Canada and subsequent war with Tre Kronor for the gold proved that Switzerland must be taken seriously as a medal contender. Whether gamblers trust the Eisgenossen to contend for the podium every single year is another matter.

News is scarce on the makeup of the roster in 2019, but it’s clear that a lot of Swiss NHL standouts will be missing. Nashville’s loss to Dallas could potentially free up defenders Roman Josi and Yannick Weber.

Switzerland always creates chances to score with swift little National League (the Swiss “NL” not the NHL) forwards leading the way, but they need a bruising blue line to survive against squads of North American pros at the Worlds.

Update 5/1: Nico Hischier of the New Jersey Devils will represent the Swiss at forward, while Josi and Weber are indeed on the way.

Update 5/4: An official roster is now training and playing friendlies. Kevin Fiala has arrived from the Minnesota Wild to further boost the forward lines, while big SC Bern captain Simon Moser provides much-needed brawn on the forecheck.

Update 5/7: The total number of current NHL names is 4, which is no problem for the Swiss except that coaches are trying out North American minor-leaguer Vincent Praplan in exhibition games, showing that they’re not altogether comfortable with the depth of an NL-heavy lineup.

Update 5/12: Boy, did I whiff on Praplan. Here’s a guy who may not be acclimated to the NHL rink yet, but he produces at the Worlds, and scored at just about a point-per-game average in his previous appearance.

Switzerland opened with a 9-0 win over Italy (in which Praplan tallied 3 points) then followed up with a crucial 3-1 result over Latvia…and a jet-lagged Elvis.

Update 5/18: The Swiss proved once again that a group of determined Euro All-Stars (and a few helping hands from the NHL) can compete against any team in the world by fighting Sweden and losing 4-3 on Saturday. Regretfully there is no “V” in “moral” victory, and there’s no points in a regulation loss whether it’s by a goal or 20.

Still the Swiss are underrated and dangerous, lurking in 3rd place in a seeding scenario that might be more about luck of the draw and less about positioning. The 1st place team in Group B can hope to face Germany in the quarterfinals, if the Germans indeed go on to struggle against the United States and Finland. Everyone else will face the Yanks, Finns, or Habs. You can’t really pick a single team out of that group that you’d rather play.

Switzerland gets a day off after walking the plank against Russia on Sunday afternoon, but the Czechs are due at 6 AM on Tuesday.

Latvia 

Anxious pundits from Latvia wring their hands and trash-talk over the thinly-populated nation’s WC roster every year.

And then this happens:

Teodors Blugers of the Pens is on the massive training roster that crack HC Bob Hartley and company have released. KHL talent abounds, and Hartley knows how to utilize the one skill at which the Russian league pros are the best in the world – defending in space on large overseas rinks. But the key to the hockey-mad nation’s chances in ’19 lies in the Columbus Blue Jackets and their AHL affiliates.

An extended North American postseason would keep wunderkind goalie Elvis Merzļikins from competing in the World Championships, an event at which he has flourished.

Update 5/1: Hartley has been able to put together essentially a whole team of NHL and KHL players. That’s a huge deal since the coach’s cautious and steely game plans rely on athletes who are unafraid when defending against the world’s finest forwards.

But Elvis is still not in the building, and won’t be unless Columbus starts losing soon.

Update 5/4: Columbus’ struggle against Boston in the 2nd round could be just what the doctor ordered for the Latvians. If the 80-to-1 Vegas line (and 45-to-1 group-winner odds) isn’t shrinking at all it’s because the team has drawn an evil lot against Russia and Sweden in Group B.

Update 5/7: ELVIS LIVES. Spotted leaving for Slovakia.

“Elvis Merzļikins will join the Latvian ice hockey team at the world championship venue in Bratislava, LHF Secretary General Viesturs Koziols.”

Latvia’s futures line remains unchanged. I guess people don’t collect old records anymore.

Update 5/12: Futures and moneyline gamblers alike could stand to give the Latvians some time before downgrading them. The star goaltender showed up jet-lagged to Ondrej Nepela Arena and probably ought not to have played in the Switzerland loss at all.

Latvia is 1-1 and Italy is next on the schedule. Patience.

Update 5/18: Latvia took a 2-0 lead on the Czech Republic following a shut-out of the Italians, and I thought the moment we (or at least I) had been waiting for had arrived. Then Bob Hartley’s team gagged, getting out-scored 6-1 in the remaining minutes. Later in the week, the Latvians made a last-ditch stand with a 1-0 lead over Team Russia. But the result seemed almost inexorable as Gusev and Kucherov put the game away for the favorites.

Hartley’s team has made its reputation on defense and ought to be able to hold a lead. Blown opportunities against the Swiss, Czechs and Russians will chalk up this World Championship as yet another exercise in frustration for one of the best pound-for-pound national programs in all of sports.

Latvia finishes-out against Sweden on Monday and Norway on Tuesday with both face-offs at 10 AM EST.

Norway

Norway suffers from not being able to draw 20+ players from top professional leagues. The Polar Bears’ best hope is to attract North American pros like Andreas Martinsen of the Blackhawks and Mats Zuccarello of the New York Rangers.

Nothing appears confirmed yet, but the Norwegians can also pull from the NCAA ranks. I would take a flyer on Tobias Fladeby, a 22-year-old collegiate player who has represented Norway in junior brackets. Fladeby plays for unheralded American International College and posted ordinary stats until this season, in which he exploded with 18 goals.

Update 5/1: Still nothing to report on the Polar Bears.

Update 5/4: Martinson is suiting up and playing friendlies, but Zuccarello is a no-go.

Update 5/7: The Norwegians didn’t just draw into the far-tougher of 2 groups.

They’re playing Team Russia bright and early on May 10th.

Update 5/12: It’s going just as you might expect for Norway, but a victory over Austria on May 17th or Italy on May 18th may be all that it takes to avoid relegation.

Update 5/18: Happy to report that the Polar Bears have accumulated 6 points (and 2 regulation wins) in 6 games and will easily avoid relegation.

Like all mid-tier World Championship teams, the Norwegians must hope to find a “sweet spot” – a season in which domestic players are dominating, big-time Euro club players are in their primes, and all eligible NHL/NCAA talent is available and healthy…while (in the same year) nations right above Norway in the World Rankings suffer dissimilar fates. That opens up the door to upsets and a berth in the quarterfinals, which in turn would help elicit even more loyalty from stars in North America.

Easier said than done. The team must play extremely well at exactly the right times. But consider that Germany was considered a “bubble” World Championship bid not too long ago. So was Denmark, a remarkable host and a dangerous unit at the Worlds in ’18. As of 2016 the hockey prowess of Germany and Switzerland was so disregarded that Gary Bettman made up fake international teams rather than invite them to the World Cup of Hockey. Cut to 2 years later. The Germans won silver medals at the Winter Olympics after leading Nikita Gusev and the KHL All-Stars, I mean, SKA St. Petersburg, ahem, I mean, Olympic Athletes From Russia late in the 3rd period, while the Swiss earned bling of their own at the WC last May.

Women’s IIHF hockey has also shown that you can turn an also-ran into a contender without a “magic” fix like a big-money draft class or dual-citizen ringers. It just happens more gradually and in a more grassroots way than most dial-a-headline pundits are willing to take seriously.

Long story short – Norway has a chance to contend in years to come. If nothing else, the ‘Bears have the best nickname out there. They’ll play out the string with an emotional, mutual send-off game against Latvia on a state-side Tuesday morning.

Austria 

The Austrians could potentially get all 3 possible NHL representatives to Slovakia.

Problem is, there’s only a battalion of 2nd-tier pros after that.

Update 5/1: Only 1 NHL player, Michael Raffl, has signed on. Austria did do well to recruit Dominic Zwerger, a 22-year-old forward who scored a point-per-game in the Swiss league postseason.

Update 5/4: If Romania can win a Division 1 tournament in 2019 just 3 years after relegation to Division 2, Austria has a chance to win Bovada’s “Top Alpine Nation” market against Switzerland, France, and Italy at (+2500) payoff odds.

Update 5/7: Austria played OK with the puck in a shoot-out friendly loss to the Yanks on Wednesday.

Update 5/12: A blown lead against Latvia in game 1, a powder-keg opponent in Russia in game 2. It’s been a hard-luck tale for the Austrians so far.

Update 5/18: The Austrians are suffering the defects of their virtues, a fancy way of saying that the team’s extra game prior to the Group B Relegation Bowl with Italy at 2 PM Brooklyn time on Monday could actually put them in a not-so-kosher pickle.

We learn something new at every World Championship, and 2019 is no exception. It appears that a tactic of bubble teams who know from the start they’ll be fighting against relegation is to withhold their best defending schemes, not their wide-open attacks, for the games that the country can conceivably win. By playing wide-open and getting blown-out by the aristocrats, a bubble team buys precious “garbage” minutes with which to develop youngsters and preserve the roster. As a result, they’re healthier and better-equipped to deal with squads on their own level…not to mention well-conditioned after skating in fast games for 2 weeks.

I’ve heard worse theories. And it’s already worked for Norway.

Austria has the talent to give the Czech Republic a run for its money when the teams meet on Sunday morning EST. But ice hockey gamblers should take note – the Austrians would just assume score a couple of times and let the NHLers snipe away for a 6-2 or 7-2 result. If Austria sacrificed bodies in a fanatical effort and earned a point or 2 on Sunday, a (more likely) loss to Italy would bring relegation all the same.

Don’t be afraid of the Over for CZE-AUT even if the Vegas totals are generous.

Italy 

What exactly goes into handicapping a country with 0.00% chance to win the World Championship as 800-to-1 as opposed to 1000-to-1?

Sure, Italy could probably beat Great Britain head-to-head. But both futures lines could be 1,000,000-to-1 and it really wouldn’t matter.

If the stars aligned just right, a team like Italy could make the quarterfinals and somehow fight to advance. But Bovada’s betting board displays markets to win the tournament. Zero chance of Italy doing that. Nada.

That doesn’t mean we won’t keep you abreast of any interesting roster developments for the tough, stubborn Italians…who often wage war with the officials and not just the other teams.

Update 5/1: If the Italians ever got their Italian-American and Italian-Canadian NHLers to play somehow, they’d contend for a medal. As it stands Italy can only count on a handful of Swiss league (pretty good) and German league (just OK) players…and a big load of domestic club talent.

That scenario will have the squad fighting against relegation yet again.

Update 5/4: There are worthwhile sleeper bets at almost any World Championship, but these aren’t the droids, er, boys you’re looking for.

Update 5/7: Nothing major to report. But read below for my tournament picks.

Update 5/12: Group B is the tougher of the 2 qualifying groups, but it sure isn’t the deepest.

Update 5/18: Headline on IIHF.com this weekend: “At Last – Italy Scores a Goal.” That’s all you need to know…except that Italy’s opponents have scored 45.

The Italians were granted a welcome day of rest and will play favored Austria in a relegation battle on Monday afternoon.

Pre-Tournament Predictions for the 2019 World Championship

Gold medal winner: Russia

Likely Silver/Bronze: USA/Sweden

Best Sleeper Futures Odds: Czech Republic (+1500)

Sleeper to Win Medal: Latvia

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