UFC Fight Night 137 Betting Guide

Today, we’ll share our best bets for UFC Fight Night 137.

These are the same bets that we’ll be making this weekend, using the same strategy that helped us profit from UFC Fight Night 136 – primarily due to a big underdog win from Jan Blachowicz.

Let’s get started.

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The UFC’s return to Sao Paulo, Brazil, certainly isn’t going to be the most talked about mixed martial arts event of this year, but it is packed with many talented fighters hailing from this part of South America. At the least, that will represent some incentive for the Brazilian audience to attend UFC Fight Night 137 after a seemingly never-ending list of injuries ruined the original fight card.

The main event was supposed to be a light heavyweight clash between Glover Teixeira and Jimi Manuwa. When Teixeira dropped from the event due to an injury, ferocious Brazilian fighter Thiago Santos answered the call and prepared to face Manuwa in the headline bout. The Sao Paulo curse continued when Manuwa tore his hamstring during a final training session just one day after arriving in Brazil. As the UFC scrambled to find a worthy main event, Eryk Anders stepped forward and offered to fight Santos at light heavyweight.

And here we are…

Two middleweight fighters who took this fight on short-notice will be competing against each other in the light heavyweight division; they’ll each make the jump from 185 lbs to 205 lbs.

Jimi Manuwa’s withdrawal from the #UFCSaoPaulo main event marks the 23rd main or co-main event change to the UFC calendar so far in 2018 🤕

— Mike Bohn (@MikeBohnMMA) September 17, 2018

Thiago Santos vs. Eryk Anders

There’s no better way to begin our UFC Fight Night 137 betting guide than by analyzing this last-minute matchup.

• Thiago Santos: +140 (Sportsbook)
• Eryk Anders: -145 (BetOnline)

On one side of the Octagon, we have the heavy-hitting Thiago Santos (18-6); an always-aggressive, and very powerful Muay Thai specialist with a superb arsenal of strikes. From the southpaw stance, Santos relies on a destructive left kick that has real stopping power. Santos has won five of his last six bouts, including the memorable KO/TKO stoppage of genuine light heavyweight contender Anthony Smith in February.

And on the other stands Eryk Anders (11-1), a relatively new face in the world of professional mixed martial arts. At an initial glance, Anders’ three-year career is seemingly dwarfed by Santos’ eight years of work as a professional. Yet, before he even began, Anders had racked up valuable experience as an amateur through 17 fights (13-3-1) and finished his opponent in 12 of his 13 wins.

The 31-year-old maintained his exceptional finishing rate early in his professional career but recently struggled to put away Markus Perez and Lyoto Machida. Anders returned to finishing ways when he summoned the kicking power of Stephen Gostkowski from the New England Patriots and nearly took the head off from Tim Williams’ shoulders. This battle with Santos represents a prime opportunity for Anders to get his career rolling once again.

What should we expect?

Excitement.

But seriously, we’re having a difficult time splitting these two contenders for a variety of reasons.

Santos is nothing short of deadly, but he’s usually unnecessarily reckless. When he hurts an opponent, he forgoes any sense of patience and begins rushing forward like a maniac. In many ways, Santos is even more dangerous when an opponent feels like he has Santos hurt. They’ll be the ones charging in recklessly and put themselves at risk of a nasty elbow, kick, or series of punches from the Brazilian. His left kick is undoubtedly his best weapon, but it won’t be nearly as effective against Anders who operates from a southpaw stance. Santos has recently shown an ability to intelligently mix in offensive wrestling – as he did against Kevin Holland – and take the fight to the mat when it’s not in his favor. That also might not be a factor against Anders, who is physical, powerful, and is a great wrestler, as well.

And for Anders, he’s going to be pushing the action from the center of the Octagon, just like he always does. He is a relatively low-volume striker compared to Santos, but even without the high volume of strikes Anders commands control of the Octagon and forces his opponent’s back to the cage. This is where Anders usually does his best work, as he’ll look for an opening and launch his mighty left hand.

When we imagine how this fight will play out, we see many similarities to the contest between Gegard Mousasi and Thiago Santos at UFC 200. Anders isn’t anywhere near as technical as Mousasi while standing, but he has many of the same tendencies. He’ll patiently evade Santos’ best weapons while walking Santos down and eventually letting go of his left hand when in range. David Branch utilized a similar strategy against Santos to full effect, knocking him out in the first round after taking some of Santos’ best kicks to his lead leg.

Anders might not have ample time to strategize for Santos’ abilities, but his usual tendencies should be enough to get him over the line in this main event.

Take Eryk Anders at odds of +140 with Bovada.

UFC Fight Night 137 Main Card

Alex Oliveira vs. Carlo Pedersoli

The co-main event of the evening is sure to be a fun one for no other reason than the Brazilian “Cowboy” Alex Oliveira is fighting.

• Alex Oliveira: -385 (BetOnline)
• Carlo Pedersoli: +353 (SportBet)

Oliveira’s bouncy, aggressive fighting style will be tested by the relatively composed approach of Carlo Pedersoli. At the age of 25, this is undoubtedly the biggest fight of Pedersoli’s career. He’ll be facing Oliveira just months after the Brazilian navigated his way to arguably his best win ever against Carlos Condit. Now 5-1 in his last six, Oliveira will be stepping inside the cage with tremendous confidence.

And so he should. On paper, this is a favorable matchup for Oliveira and one that he has no business losing. But Pedersoli is trickier than he appears at first glance and possesses an array of creative techniques that can potentially confuse Oliveira. His explosive and well-hidden kicks to the body and head will feature at UFC Fight Night 137, and so might some of his innovative submission grappling techniques such as the calf slicer he attempted against Nicolas Dalby in April.

Oliveira deserves to be the betting favorite, but not by this much against an opponent with a multitude of paths to victory.

Bet on Carlo Pedersoli at odds of +353 with SportBet.

Sam Alvey vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira

Two heavy-handed boxing-focused fighters will face off in Brazil when Sam Alvey meets Antonio Rogerio Nogueira.

• Sam Alvey: -275 (BetOnline)
• Antonio Rogerio Nogueira: +279 (SportBet)

If you’re familiar with Smilin’ Sam Alvey, you already know that an Alvey fight goes either one of two ways:

• Alvey connects with his thunderous right hook or left hand and finishes the fight with a memorable knockout.
• No one is smilin’ after watching 15 minutes of Alvey’s low-volume striking and lack of urgency

See, Alvey’s hands are about as heavy as hands can be. When he lands flush on an opponent’s chin, it’s usually goodnight. The problem is, however, Alvey doesn’t have too many ways to set up his attacks. He’ll patiently wait for an opening, but sometimes he is left waiting for the entirety of the fight.

In the grand scheme of things, his low-volume striking isn’t captured by official statistics; FightMetric shows that Alvey lands 3.10 significant strikes per minute. Alvey has a sizable advantage over Antonio Rogerio Nogueira’s 2.35 significant strikes landed per minute. Alvey does absorb more shots, though, and typically takes 3.21 significant strikes per minute, compared to 2.17 strikes absorbed by “Little Nog.”

There’s no question that “Little Nog” is approaching the end of his career and is not at the level he was previously, but he’s a true legend of the sport and has the craftiness to trouble Alvey. The UFC has handed him a winnable fight here against Alvey, who doesn’t possess the type of explosiveness or athleticism that would cause the 42-year-old significant concerns.

We could never confidently back Alvey at odds of -275, and that’s more than enough reason to side with “Little Nog” in this fight.

Bet on Antonio Rogerio Nogueira at odds of +279 with SportBet.

Renan Barao vs. Andre Ewell

Speaking of fighters who are a shadow of their former self, Renan Barao will be competing in Sao Paulo against UFC newcomer Andre Ewell.

• Renan Barao: -119 (Pinnacle)
• Andre Ewell: +108 (SportBet)

Barao has lost his step, and that’s clear for all to see. The former champion has now dropped four of his last five fights and is on a two-fight losing streak thanks to Brian Kelleher and Aljamain Sterling. Both of those fights were winnable, and the bookmakers agreed with opening odds of -160 and -130 for those fights respectively.

Interestingly, Barao’s opening line for this fight against Ewell was -350, and he has since shifted +28.1% to -119. The last time Barao’s odds turned in such a way was when he faced Jeremy Stephens in May 2016 and went on to lose by unanimous decision. So, the bookmakers initially believed that Barao had an edge in this matchup against Ewell, but the money has come in on Ewell’s side in a big way.

Ewell’s a lengthy bantamweight with an effective jab and a variety of ways to work his way to victory. He most recently utilized his long reach to secure a brilliant D’Arce choke against Dinis Paiva at CES 50, and that win marked his fourth consecutive stoppage victory. At the age of 30, Ewell is an excellent addition to the UFC’s bantamweight division.

And that’s precisely why we won’t be betting on this fight. We haven’t seen enough of Ewell against high-quality competition, and we are still not exactly sure where Barao is at. At these odds, we’ll be staying away from this fight.

If you were fortunate enough to lock in Andre Ewell at odds of +250, congratulations.

No bet.

Randa Markos vs. Marina Rodriguez

A fascinating betting opportunity presents itself this weekend as Randa Markos prepares for UFC debutant Marina Rodriguez.

• Randa Markos: -106 (Pinnacle)
• Marina Rodriguez: +103 (SportBet)

Marina Rodriguez gained entry to the UFC after an impressive first-round finish in a recent edition of Dana White’s Contender Series. Rodriguez used her classy Muay Thai striking and outstanding clinch work to force her opponent to quit after just three minutes. The victory marked her 11th consecutive victory and maintained her undefeated professional record, yet it’s challenging to find footage of Rodriguez’s prior performances.

Rodriguez will be up against the always tough Randa Markos who has remarkably alternated wins and losses through her last 12 bouts. Markos fell short against Nina Ansaroff in July after controlling the action in the first round. As the fight progressed, Ansaroff was able to defend the takedowns of Markos and keep the fight standing long enough to win over the judges.

Here’s what you need to know before this strawweight clash…

Markos typically utilizes dirty boxing techniques and clinch work to find takedown opportunities. Although regarded for her offensive wrestling, Markos only finishes 25% of her takedown attempts. She’s not particularly impressive at shooting in for takedowns at long range or mauling opponents in the same way that Tatiana Suarez has done recently in the division, but the threat is always there.

If Markos is planning to work on the inside against Rodriguez, she’s going to have a rough night. Rodriguez’s clinch control is superb, and she has a variety of striking techniques to punish Markos every time she steps into range. The Brazilian also has an impressive snap to her punches, and she occasionally looks to land flush with a 1-2 down the middle. In many ways, Rodriguez has all of the tools to nullify Markos’ offensive strategies.

Can she control the clinch well enough to stop Markos’ takedowns? We believe so.

Bet on Marina Rodriguez at odds of +103 with SportBet.

UFC Fight Night 137 Best Bets

• Eryk Anders to win: +140 at Bovada
• Carlo Pedersoli to win: +353 at SportBet
• Antonio Rogerio Nogueira to win: +279 at SportBet
• Marina Rodriguez to win: +103 at SportBet

If you haven’t already, make sure to check out our Beginner’s Guide to UFC Betting.